Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history. so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways! We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was that absurd of an idea even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? Seems reasonable to wanna see since we had 5 years of our least snowy state...But I'm guessing you never bought the nina argument in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north. The 0z Canadian kinda had that "at least we got something" scenario you mentioned with the NS wave giving us something but kinda missing the STJ wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was absurd even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? You said that as if you never bought that argument in the first place, lol No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad! I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments. What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too! regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow. This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 1958 1964 1966 A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino. -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy! We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades! It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing. Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950! If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 tbf since the block is weaker than previously thought we're probably going to want to root for a slightly better pac 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 New look on 6z for PD weekend. Interesting. Only digital blue I could find so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 47 minutes ago, BristowWx said: New look on 6z for PD weekend. Interesting. Only digital blue I could find so far. It's the same idea as the 0z run, except the NS energy digs further south and induces a surface low over NC. Could work but if it ends up all NS with the southern wave suppressed it probably favors places further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro actually did get it done with another wave for the 20th. At this point, we just cant know. Same idea on the EPS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 End of 6z control vs 00z… and slp/precip location. Def some significant changes to the H5 pattern. Pretty sure that was going to be small/significant hit there . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of 6z control vs 00z… and slp/precip location. Def some significant changes to the H5 pattern. Pretty sure that was going to be small/significant hit there . Pretty Similar to the 6z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Pretty Similar to the 6z GFSYep,good sign. I mean personally I’m always aiming for a big dog but I’ll take a 2-5” event of course . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50. Getting ahead here but this^^ system is impacted by what happens the 19th-20th. With that said tho, I am very co fident we cash in between the 18th-26th at the very least. One of those 2 waves works out....maybe both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad! I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments. What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too! regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow. This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 1958 1964 1966 A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino. -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy! We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades! It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing. Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950! If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. Good Post and Point. Those Factors mentioned are looking more and more likely the culprit. All in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'll take what the 6z gfs is serving up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I'll take what the 6z gfs is serving up. 6z gfs at 150 + 0z euro at 234 0z cmc also shows support for feb 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Welp, whatever happens must happen quick! Because Phil says... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z gfs at 150 + 0z euro at 234 0z cmc also shows support for feb 17This week might be the pattern transition/hand-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: This week might be the pattern transition/hand-off. Models/ensembles have trended warmer towards the end of Feb, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they trended back colder once the pattern change takes hold this week and the convection fires back up in the IO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Op gfs forms another -EPO block at 300+ hours, but ensembles don’t have that yet. Something to keep an eye on whether we see another -EPO show up along with -NAO they keep showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1756672093997986055 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1756672093997986055 I consider that very little change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 12Z GFS, snow on snow in Northern PA this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 12Z GFS, President's Day weekend blizzard. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 12Z GFS, President's Day weekend blizzard.Beggars can’t be choosers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Alright experienced minds here...on a scale of 1-10 how weird is this setup we're looking at for PD weekend/the day after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history. so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways! We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. Dude.. the -NAO is so weak now. I was right, when storms start cutting on models, and surface goes warmer, the models are usually adjusting the upper latitudes too. That's what happened. The blocks you and brooklynwx keep showing are ridiculous. We are no where near that -NAO strength. There is no disconnect also. It's fitting what we've seen over the last 2-5 years. But like I said before, when we are hitting -PNA at the end of this cycle, the SE ridge flexes/EC gets warm.. I'd watch for that later in the month and possibly next Winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB CAN at Day 9, pattern is chaotic, just too soon to tell.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Weather Will said: WB CAN at Day 9, pattern is chaotic, just too soon to tell.... Yeah, the models are totally lost on handling this pattern change and what comes soon after. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Dude.. the -NAO is so weak now. I was right, when storms start cutting on models, and surface goes warmer, the models are usually adjusting the upper latitudes too. That's what happened. The blocks you and brooklynwx keep showing are ridiculous. We are no where near that -NAO strength. There is no disconnect also. It's fitting what we've seen over the last 2-5 years. But like I said before, when we are hitting -PNA at the end of this cycle, the SE ridge/EC gets warm.. I'd watch for that later in the month and possibly next Winter. The point is if what’s been happening the last 5 years keeps happening we are totally F’d! We are going to be in -PDO possibly for a long time. They can last decades. During these cycles, especially in winter, the -pna dominates! It used to snow during these winters. Other pattern drivers used to overcome a -pna. You keep saying -pna like it’s some revelation. We’re in a deep -pdo cycle. The pna is going to negative like 80% of the time. We have to be able to snow in a -pna or we’re F’d. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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