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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history.  
IMG_1504.gif.7203eeeec1b64df19a2f889b2f8e3725.gif

so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways!  We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. 

Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was that absurd of an idea even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? Seems reasonable to wanna see since we had 5 years of our least snowy state...But I'm guessing you never bought the nina argument in the first place?

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. 
 

If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north. 

The 0z Canadian kinda had that "at least we got something" scenario you mentioned with the NS wave giving us something but kinda missing the STJ wave.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was absurd even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? You said that as if you never bought that argument in the first place, lol

No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad!   I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments.
 

What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too!   regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. 
 

what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. 
 

This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow.  This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. 
 

You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 
1958

IMG_1507.gif.051501ef4e9f5cb6133ca4b4119840dc.gif

1964

IMG_1505.gif.492d62da8bf61697ccdecba23ad07fb1.gif
1966

IMG_1506.gif.f79ac985356ae0e0841438b44c71a367.gif

A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino.  -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy!  We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades!  It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing.  
 

Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950!  If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. 

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47 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

New look on 6z for PD weekend.  Interesting.  Only digital blue I could find so far. 

It's the same idea as the 0z run, except the NS energy digs further south and induces a surface low over NC. Could work but if it ends up all NS with the southern wave suppressed it probably favors places further north.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50. 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_52.png

Getting ahead here but this^^ system is impacted by what happens the 19th-20th. With that said tho, I am  very co fident we cash in between the 18th-26th at the very least. One of those 2 waves works out....maybe both. 

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No I never bought that BS. We’ve had Nina -pna patterns before in the past. And they weren’t as bad. Yes they were bad. But they weren’t 2017-2023 bad!   I was SURE more was going on than the simple “blame the pac base state” BS arguments.
 

What I wasn’t sure of was how much the issues we are talking about would mute things when we had a good enso state. Let’s say we’re talkiing about the western pac warm pool, the expanded Hadley cell, the northerly displaced jet, the warmer gulf and Atlantic. All those things are a fact. We can just agree not to talk about what they may or may not all be related too!   regardless of that they all are a reality and all act opposite our snow interests. 
 

what I thought and hoped was that a strong -QBO Nino would overcome those issues. That we hadn’t reached a point where those issues now eliminated even what has been our perfect setup for a lot of snow. 
 

This isn’t a me throwing in the towel post. I’m not. I’m still bullish we get snow.  This is just me telling Chuck shut up about the damn pna. Some of our best snow periods in history, and some were the analogs I used to predict a ton of snow, were -pna -nao periods in a Nino. 
 

You saw 2010 above. look at these other snowy Nino periods during -pdo periods. 
1958

IMG_1507.gif.051501ef4e9f5cb6133ca4b4119840dc.gif

1964

IMG_1505.gif.492d62da8bf61697ccdecba23ad07fb1.gif
1966

IMG_1506.gif.f79ac985356ae0e0841438b44c71a367.gif

A -pna was part of the equation. It wasn’t supposed to matter in a Nino.  -pna -nao ninos are supposed to be snowy!  We go through -pdo cycles where an pna dominates and they can last decades!  It snowed plenty in the past in those cycles. So no I don’t accept the pna as a blanket excuse for it not snowing.  
 

Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO ninos since 1950!  If we end up with something well short of that then I know what it was, and it’s not the damn pna. What it is is those other factors all conspiring to make it impossible to overcome the pna like we did in the past. 

Good Post and Point. Those Factors mentioned are looking more and more likely the culprit. All in tandem. 

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:


This week might be the pattern transition/hand-off.

Models/ensembles have trended warmer towards the end of Feb, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they trended back colder once the pattern change takes hold this week and the convection fires back up in the IO. 

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11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history.  
IMG_1504.gif.7203eeeec1b64df19a2f889b2f8e3725.gif

so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways!  We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. 

Dude.. the -NAO is so weak now. I was right, when storms start cutting on models, and surface goes warmer, the models are usually adjusting the upper latitudes too. That's what happened. The blocks you and brooklynwx keep showing are ridiculous. We are no where near that -NAO strength. 

There is no disconnect also. It's fitting what we've seen over the last 2-5 years. But like I said before, when we are hitting -PNA at the end of this cycle, the SE ridge flexes/EC gets warm.. I'd watch for that later in the month and possibly next Winter. 

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19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dude.. the -NAO is so weak now. I was right, when storms start cutting on models, and surface goes warmer, the models are usually adjusting the upper latitudes too. That's what happened. The blocks you and brooklynwx keep showing are ridiculous. We are no where near that -NAO strength. 

There is no disconnect also. It's fitting what we've seen over the last 2-5 years. But like I said before, when we are hitting -PNA at the end of this cycle, the SE ridge/EC gets warm.. I'd watch for that later in the month and possibly next Winter. 

The point is if what’s been happening the last 5 years keeps happening we are totally F’d!  We are going to be in -PDO possibly for a long time. They can last decades. During these cycles, especially in winter, the -pna dominates!  It used to snow during these winters.  Other pattern drivers used to overcome a -pna. You keep saying -pna like it’s some revelation. We’re in a deep -pdo cycle. The pna is going to negative like 80% of the time. We have to be able to snow in a -pna or we’re F’d. 

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