CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime. That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime. That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting Do tell what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime. That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting Doesn't quite come together but not far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Do tell what you mean Key wave for the PD window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Doesn't quite come together but not far off. That was pretty close to phasing between the two streams. Of course, the deb crowd will say it wasn’t close. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 EPS ensemble was best snow chart of season outside 7 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro at 240 vs gfs 240 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Looking at the data on Stratobserve there seems to be some changes going on mid to late month. These changes may cause the long range ensembles to improve in the next few days to colder and snowier scenarios for our area. Will be interesing to monitor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The ens. control is a little more bullish than the op. for PD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Ji said: Is there a science reason the ns wave seems to always be on top of the ss wave or is it just bad luck ? We discussed this a while back as a possible thorn. The NS is simply not digging as far south. We don’t have to get into why. But the result is it’s very difficult to get a NS wave to phase in a way helpful to us with the STJ. Instead they run over the top of us and run interference. It’s a reason I’ve been bearish on scenarios that require a NS phase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 for anyone who cares GEFS def improved w the blocking this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: for anyone who cares GEFS def improved w the blocking this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 great changes, tpv looks a lot better this run too 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We discussed this a while back as a possible thorn. The NS is simply not digging as far south. We don’t have to get into why. But the result is it’s very difficult to get a NS wave to phase in a way helpful to us with the STJ. Instead they run over the top of us and run interference. It’s a reason I’ve been bearish on scenarios that require a NS phase. I know you’re talking about a different scenario involving a STJ, but this past Jan seemed to have broken the pattern of the northern stream running further north and staying north. Instead it dug further south at the last possible minute and the models were forced to play catch up. Twice in the same week. After this winter, for fun, I’m going to look at what pattern caused it to snow here in every case from 2017 to date. I suspect some combination of -EPO/-NAO but I want to see the data for myself. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I know you’re talking about a different scenario involving a STJ, but this past Jan seemed to have broken the pattern of the northern stream running further north and staying north. Instead it dug further south at the last possible minute and the models were forced to play catch up. Twice in the same week. There was a redonculous retrograding block. It was short lived and then the block retrograded all the way into the mid latitudes as the tpv moved back in but for that week it was about as suppressed a jet as you can get. And it barely got the NS to dig enough to get under us. Im not saying it’s impossible to get the NS far enough south. But recently it sure doesn’t seem to be happening as often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. We arent even in the middle of the current interglacial yet. The planet will get way warmer before it happens. Although maybe we have sped it up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We arent even in the middle of the current interglacial yet. The planet will get way warmer before it happens. Although maybe we have sped it up. Those glacial periods look pretty long and ominous (and cold). I'll take global warming over that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We arent even in the middle of the current interglacial yet. The planet will get way warmer before it happens. Although maybe we have sped it up. I was born 25,000 years too late. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, IronTy said: Those glacial periods look pretty long and ominous (and cold). I'll take global warming over that. Dont want to crap up this thread. But yeah. Climate wise we are in a very favorable part of the cycle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dont want to crap up this thread. But yeah. Climate wise we are in a very favorable part of the cycle. Glaciers never made it this far down - DC couldn't even achieve snow town status during an ice age. Total failure. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, Ji said: EPS ensemble was best snow chart of season outside 7 days Only 1 out of 51 with nothing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades. This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change. There will be tempers, frustration, inter-forum spats, deleted posts and (God I hope it doesn't come to this)...suspensions and bannings. We've got to be strong. Even with this said, we are going to lose many more in the coming week. I have a few suggestions to remain strong in the absence of a clear threat to track. Have a date night. Take your loved one or special person to a fancy restaurant such as Red Lobster, Denny's or ARBY'S. Take your kids to your Parent's. And leave them there. Forever. Take up a hobby such as Legos, Stamp collecting, Onlyfans. Go outside, touch grass. And then grind it, roll it up and smoke it. In all seriousness yall, we just gotta be patient. I hate waiting too, but what choice do we have? Nobody should be tearing apart mets and pros because we can't get snow. We need these people. All they are doing is giving you their expert opinion. You know weather is unpredictable. You knew what you were getting into. There are no guarantees. I'm frustrated too, but give it another week yall. If we're not tracking something next weekend, then yeah...I get it. If and when you do decide to fall, just go into the panic room and do it there. I may be joining you, who knows? 21 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Only 1 out of 51 with nothing We're gonna do it son. I'm feeling highly optimistic tonight. Jack Daniels helped a little, ngl. And for those who are gonna comment, I'm only doing Jack because it was left over from a party...and free. 6 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're gonna do it son. I'm feeling highly optimistic tonight. Jack Daniels helped a little, ngl. And for those who are gonna comment, I'm only doing Jack because it was left over from a party...and free. We’re gonna Jebwalk to Valhalla 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re gonna Jebwalk to Valhalla It's going to be glorious. And then we will see all of our fallen brothers and sisters in a heavenly snowball fight. You, @CAPE @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @Bob Chill et all, take us home! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's going to be glorious. And then we will see all of our fallen brothers and sisters in a heavenly snowball fight. You, @CAPE @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @Bob Chill et all, take us home! Crack open that 120. You would have a glorious deep sleep. And some weird ass dreams lol. On top of JD.. eh, nah, save it. Needs to be a proper occasion and savored- for after Mahomes loses, or our collective ultimate victory- a late Feb KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Crack open that 120. You would have a glorious deep sleep. And some weird ass dreams lol. On top of JD.. eh, nah, save it. Needs to be a proper occasion and savored- for after Mahomes loses, or our collective ultimate victory- a late Feb KU. Tomorrow friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 worth noting that the pattern downgraded because of the NPAC jet extending a bit too far, not to mention the 14th storm not being a cutter and kickstarting the -NAO earlier still looks good but is def worse than compared to how it was looking earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 12z GEFS: PNA is negative for "PSU storm".. I don't care what the NAO is doing, the Pacific has overwhelmed the Atlantic constantly since 18-19. I mean, with the way it's trending, we may end up in the 50s. I still think PD is our best shot at snow, because it has the most favorable upper latitude pattern. When subsurface ENSO changes happen, the N. Pacific pattern does adjust, sometimes even despite what is going on at the surface. It's a fairly successful forecasting method. The -NAO/-PNA/+EPO, +NAO/+PNA/-EPO correlation is holding. Models were showing a break, but it backed off of the short term -NAO, associated with +PNA, and went stronger on long range -NAO associated with -PNA. This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history. so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways! We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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