Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is a lot going on here. Tracking for this period won't be for the faint of heart.

True dat .... Prozac required 

[Jebman]

45 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Don't worry, the pattern will actually become epic in late March/early April and then we'll have endless backdoor cold fronts through May. 

Very good. Well stated. That's Deb Playbook Rule No. 2.

[CAPE]

This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east.

 

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east.

 

overall good changes, better chance of phasing and brings the vortex more E

[EHoffman]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east.

 

I just want a legitimate threat to track next week and this Euro run got me excited for that so mission accomplished.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GEFS: PNA is negative for "PSU storm".. I don't care what the NAO is doing, the Pacific has overwhelmed the Atlantic constantly since 18-19. I mean, with the way it's trending, we may end up in the 50s. I still think PD is our best shot at snow, because it has the most favorable upper latitude pattern. 

When subsurface ENSO changes happen, the N. Pacific pattern does adjust, sometimes even despite what is going on at the surface. It's a fairly successful forecasting method. 

The -NAO/-PNA/+EPO, +NAO/+PNA/-EPO correlation is holding. Models were showing a break, but it backed off of the short term -NAO, associated with +PNA, and went stronger on long range -NAO associated with -PNA. 

[Daniel Boone]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so

Hopefully it scores a coup. That would be great with HLB. 

[NorthArlington101]

12z control is a modest hit. Something at least

[Prestige Worldwide]

Borrowing this- I like it 

[stormy]

12z op. Euro is a PD hit for the Central Valley with 6 - 7 inches of snow.

90% probability it will be gone at 00z, but nice to see.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

overall good changes, better chance of phasing and brings the vortex more E

Not a bad outcome this run as advertised. NS interaction is gonna be pesky.

[Terpeast]

In case you weren’t aware, @Carvers Gap is dropping value bombs with excellent MJO and LR model analysis. 

You should follow him. Very educational and I’m on the same page as he. 

 

[peribonca]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

Very good. Well stated. That's Deb Playbook Rule No. 2.

Reverse psychology

[Ji]

Unfortunately what’s allowing it to come further north (a more relaxed flow than expected) is also allowing for thermal issues. We need that NS wave to play nice. Come across ahead and set the boundary. Or phase in behind. Riding right over the top is not going to work. It’s got a shot. I never said it didn’t.  But it’s still more complicated than I like. I’m tracking it through. Just have nothing to add really. 

Is there a science reason the ns wave seems to always be on top of the ss wave or is it just bad luck ?

[CAPE]

Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime.

That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime.

That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting 

Do tell what you mean 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime.

That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting 

Doesn't quite come together but not far off.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do tell what you mean 

Key wave for the PD window.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Doesn't quite come together but not far off.

That was pretty close to phasing between the two streams.  Of course, the deb crowd will say it wasn’t close.

[Ji]

EPS ensemble was best snow chart of season outside 7 days

[Ji]

Euro at 240 vs gfs 240 lol

[frd]

Looking at the data on Stratobserve there seems to be some changes going on mid to late month. 

These changes may cause the long range ensembles to improve in the next few days to colder and snowier scenarios for our area. 

Will be interesing to monitor. 

 

 

[stormy]

The ens. control is a little more bullish than the op. for PD.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Is there a science reason the ns wave seems to always be on top of the ss wave or is it just bad luck ?

We discussed this a while back as a possible thorn.  The NS is simply not digging as far south.  We don’t have to get into why.  But the result is it’s very difficult to get a NS wave to phase in a way helpful to us with the STJ.  Instead they run over the top of us and run interference.  It’s a reason I’ve been bearish on scenarios that require a NS phase.  

 

[DarkSharkWX]

for anyone who cares GEFS def improved w the blocking this run

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

for anyone who cares GEFS def improved w the blocking this run

 

[DarkSharkWX]

great changes, tpv looks a lot better this run too

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We discussed this a while back as a possible thorn.  The NS is simply not digging as far south.  We don’t have to get into why.  But the result is it’s very difficult to get a NS wave to phase in a way helpful to us with the STJ.  Instead they run over the top of us and run interference.  It’s a reason I’ve been bearish on scenarios that require a NS phase.  

 

I know you’re talking about a different scenario involving a STJ, but this past Jan seemed to have broken the pattern of the northern stream running further north and staying north. Instead it dug further south at the last possible minute and the models were forced to play catch up. Twice in the same week. 

After this winter, for fun, I’m going to look at what pattern caused it to snow here in every case from 2017 to date. I suspect some combination of -EPO/-NAO but I want to see the data for myself. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I know you’re talking about a different scenario involving a STJ, but this past Jan seemed to have broken the pattern of the northern stream running further north and staying north. Instead it dug further south at the last possible minute and the models were forced to play catch up. Twice in the same week. 

There was a redonculous retrograding block. It was short lived and then the block retrograded all the way into the mid latitudes as the tpv moved back in but for that week it was about as suppressed a jet as you can get. And it barely got the NS to dig enough to get under us. 
 

Im not saying it’s impossible to get the NS far enough south.  But recently it sure doesn’t seem to be happening as often. 

[clskinsfan]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years.  Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age.  Maybe that will kill the SER.

We arent even in the middle of the current interglacial yet. The planet will get way warmer before it happens. Although maybe we have sped it up.