NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change.That’s actually what’s been scaring me the most. No real cold. The ens look below normal but it’s below normal in late Feb. and early March… it takes a little more especially if the time of day ends up not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change. For better or worse, it will change. Stick with the ensembles especially at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change. Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence, basically since 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 33 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Not sure of 2016, but I honestly don't recall at 10 days if it looked rainy (or various rainy solutions). I just remember a week out everything locked in to a major winter event. Now, Feb. 5-6, 2010...I've heard from others (@psuhoffman maybe?) that it was a bit dubious farther out in time once it got on the radar of interest. Those storms had less NS interaction to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 15 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence, basically since 2017. It’s not as bad as it’s been in the recent Nina’s but guidance is still showing a tendency for mid latitude and subtropical ridges to extend too far north despite blocking. Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. For the last 5 years I’ve heard “that’s a Nina problem not you know what, we have to wait for a Nino”. Well… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 GEFS look good with PD. 850s peak around normal during the event, which is around -3 nw of 95 and -2 for the rest 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. Been an occurrence ever since the Atlantic started to warm. The Atlantic is very warm and the Pac is warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Pretty good track on the GEFS for PD weekend. Just pray temps are cold enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, frd said: Been an occurrence ever since the Atlantic started to warm. The Atlantic is very warm and the Pac is warm as well. Seems pretty simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: Seems pretty simple What's your thoughts on PD weekend? Looks like precip may come further north now. What do we need to see happen so it's cold enough other than a miracle lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not as bad as it’s been in the recent Nina’s but guidance is still showing a tendency for mid latitude and subtropical ridges to extend too far north despite blocking. Gfs even links the ser with the high latitude ridge again. For the last 5 years I’ve heard “that’s a Nina problem not you know what, we have to wait for a Nino”. Well… If the same happens in a nino, then we can’t simply say it’s a “la nina problem” 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, frd said: Been an occurrence ever since the Atlantic started to warm. The Atlantic is very warm and the Pac is warm as well. Need to let ships emit SO2 again. Good idea to curb it... bad unintended consequences.https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lower-sulfur-warmer-oceans-scientists-debate-unintended-impact-of-imo-2020/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's your thoughts on PD weekend? Looks like precip may come further north now. What do we need to see happen so it's cold enough other than a miracle lol. Unfortunately what’s allowing it to come further north (a more relaxed flow than expected) is also allowing for thermal issues. We need that NS wave to play nice. Come across ahead and set the boundary. Or phase in behind. Riding right over the top is not going to work. It’s got a shot. I never said it didn’t. But it’s still more complicated than I like. I’m tracking it through. Just have nothing to add really. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. Thank god 3 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Ok I did start this, but it was in reference to our current pattern. We should probably continue the sulfur and coming ice age discussion in the CC thread so the sensitive snowflakes that get the vapers when anything about warming is mentioned don’t show up to bitch and complain. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Here is one reason why I have eyes on PD despite the op gfs showing a rainstorm. Feb 13-14 was supposed to be a cutter and was depicted as such up until earlier this week. And we don’t even have cold air anywhere nearby. I think we will see it evolve in our favor once the models work out the northern stream under a greenland blocking regime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Article in the Washington Post yesterday that latest studies show the Gulf Stream may collapse due to fresh water glacial melt sooner than previously thought, like within a few years. Could cool things off over 30 degrees...mini ice age. Maybe that will kill the SER. What the issue with a little mass ecological destruction when it comes to us getting more snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What the issue with a little mass ecological destruction when it comes to us getting more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you know the vibes have soured a bit when people are mentioning La Nina in a pattern discussion thread during a strong Nino lol It appears our epic pattern has run into a few elephants along the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: It appears our epic pattern has run into a few elephants along the way! Don't worry, the pattern will actually become epic in late March/early April and then we'll have endless backdoor cold fronts through May. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 12z EURO looks colder for PD. We'll see shortly... might still be too suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 JB says hug the JMA MJO and arctic air will come east later next week.... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB says hug the JMA MJO and arctic air will come east later next week.... This generally agrees with the hovmollers diagram DarkSharkWX posted a couple of pages back. I wouldn’t discount weak p1/2 just because the Jma said so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 If the MJO does end up being more JMA like it should then trend colder for later next week, no idea if it will be stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Euro's cold enough to snow until the precip finally gets here for the PD3 "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 There is a lot going on here. Tracking for this period won't be for the faint of heart. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Slight differences between WB 12Z GFS and EURO at Day 9 plus... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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