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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

JenkinsJinkies

By JenkinsJinkies,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker
stormtracker

As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades.  This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change.  There will be tempers

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range.  1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything e

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its crazy to look past a window with potential that is still 8-10 days out, because the weeklies have been persistent about the 24th lol. This isn't really even a suppressed look. It is a bit too far SE verbatim, and it is still pretty far out there. 

1708246800-T0cileVib6U.png

And yeah I mean...aren't we talking about the timing of a phase here? No way that's gonna be resolved yet. The fact that guidance got less suppressed over the last 2-3 cycles...me thinks that's progress :lol: (Take that fwiw since it could bevmy baby once the paperwork is approved, so I'll always be biased)

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs.

Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours.  Some turning on each other.  These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War?  We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond.  

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snowfan

snowfan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours.  Some turning on each other.  These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War?  We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond.  

Man, you’re losing everyone around here. You know who the execs usually dump when that happens…..

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Man, you’re losing everyone around here. You know who the execs usually dump when that happens…..

I’m already prepping the AmericanWx Witness protection program.  I have new screenames and accounts for Psu, cape, Brooklyn et al. Got them new passports, SSNs and IP masks here. Just in case.  I still believe in them, but the natives are setting ornery and restless. Some are ready to mutiny.  If we’re not tracking something by PD,I fear the worst.  God help us all.  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The 23/24 still has potential but I worry about the pacific going to crap quickly. We might want to start rooting for a north trend with the 17th wave 

I dont disagree with this. It's always a gamble looking 3-6 weeks out via the weeklies etc. But with that said, even if the EPO ridge breaks, it isn't a shit the blinds with the TPV hanging under the NAO block which at least looks stable. Obviously we start needing more HL help on both sides the farther along into the waning part of winter we get. But I wouldn't fold just yet. 

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snowfan

snowfan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I’m already prepping the AmericanWx Witness protection program.  I have new screenames and accounts for Psu, cape, Brooklyn et al. Got them new passports, SSNs and IP masks here. Just in case.  I still believe in them, but the natives are setting ornery and restless. Some are ready to mutiny.  If we’re not tracking something by PD,I fear the worst.  God help us all.  

lol. I don’t think you have to worry about cape. He seems like the type that’ll just brush it off and go outside and get on with life.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yoda might be a goner. :mellow:

He’s done. Northarlington101 just sat there in his foxhole, staring into empty space, firearm by his feet as the German artillery explodes around him.  Winterwxlvr is there, telling him to snap out of it to no avail.  Winterwxlvr is taking on that entire German artillery unit single handedly. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours.  Some turning on each other.  These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War?  We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond.  

Will await further instruction based on your 12z pbp for the 13th and later on, lieutenant colonel @stormtracker. Please advise the remaining troops of their position. Godspeed.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
He’s done. Northarlington101 just sat there in his foxhole, staring into empty space, firearm by his feet as the German artillery explodes around him.  Winterwxlvr is there, telling him to snap out of it to no avail.  Winterwxlvr is taking on that entire German artillery unit single handedly. 

If anything I’m a double agent pushing people over the edge. I’m still tracking the VDay storm. I’ll be tracking through May if we’re unlucky enough to get the chance
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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


fwiw… the days of the hits are

PD MECS (long duration 10-12”)

Mar 3-4 HECS (20-30 central VA, PSU fringed with 8”)

March 25 SECS (end of run, at least 6-8”)

how could a bad pattern produce that EPS Control run emoji6.png

I like this better than the control runs WW ussually posts. :lol:

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He’s done. Northarlington101 just sat there in his foxhole, staring into empty space, firearm by his feet as the German artillery explodes around him.  Winterwxlvr is there, telling him to snap out of it to no avail.  Winterwxlvr is taking on that entire German artillery unit single handedly. 

We need our version of General Patton to whip these soldiers into shape!  Or General McAuliffe, saying "NUTS!" to the Germans asking him to surrender at Bastogne.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


fwiw… the days of the hits are

PDIII MECS (long duration 10-12”)

Mar 3-4 HECS (20-30 central VA, PSU fringed with 8”)

March 25 SECS (end of run, at least 6-8”)

how could a bad pattern produce that EPS Control run emoji6.png

Exactly! These LR models are available to the public due their accuracy. They wouldn't release them to us if there were flaws or beta testing. So there's that ;)

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted

A simple way to keep your sanity at this point is just to look at the EURO global for discrete threats in 5 day increments.  It really helps  to keep my expectations in check.  It is not going to snow this upcoming work week.  It was always a stretch to think VD storm would be cold enough and it won't be.  Will it snow PD weekend, or beyond, TBD.  Not inside 5 days yet.

 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

A simple way to keep your sanity at this point is just to look at the EURO global for discrete threats in 5 day increments.  It really helps  to keep my expectations in check.  It is not going to snow this upcoming work week.  It was always a stretch to think VD storm would be cold enough and it won't be.  Will it snow PD weekend, or beyond, TBD.  Not inside 5 days yet.

 

We're not good at winter anymore...until it snows.

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

A simple way to keep your sanity at this point is just to look at the EURO global for discrete threats in 5 day increments.  It really helps  to keep my expectations in check.  It is not going to snow this upcoming work week.  It was always a stretch to think VD storm would be cold enough and it won't be.  Will it snow PD weekend, or beyond, TBD.  Not inside 5 days yet.

 

Thank you.  I was wondering why all the cliff jumping and crankiness around here when we know that we usually have no idea of the outcome more than 4-5 days out. 

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