CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, yoda said: My post showed the 00z EPS Day 10-15 h5. There was nothing nice about it Nothing nice about it... you need to be more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I see some nice things for that period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Interpretation of LR ens means requires a bit of skill. Nuanced. Look for the hints/trends over several runs 10+ days out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Interpretation of LR ens means requires a bit of skill. Nuanced. Look for the hints/trends over several runs 10+ days out. On 2/9/2024 at 3:01 AM, psuhoffman said: This enough blocking Chuck? Where did the mega 50/50 magically run off to on your post above? Blocking is weaker. NAO weaker. Several runs showed this. Now it's gone. So that's why it's right to be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, yoda said: Where did the 50/50 magically run off to? Blocking is weaker. NAO weaker. Several runs showed this. Now it's gone. So that's why it's right to be concerned It's not weak here, and this is 8 days out. Maybe focus on this period and not worry so much about the period beyond that. There will be more error associated with location/strength of h5 features further into the run. Also there will be some actual waxing and waning regardless- the atmosphere is a fluid in motion. Even in a blocky pattern these features can't remain stationary. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I made my good faith effort. No more coddling the panic stricken here. Take it to the other thread. Y'all just getting weenies from me going forward lol. 6 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 x posting here @Allsnow 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: This wasn’t the look the models had a few days for late February. Looks like we won’t make p8 until March which will be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, yoda said: x posting here @Allsnow The 23/24 still has potential but I worry about the pacific going to crap quickly. We might want to start rooting for a north trend with the 17th wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, yoda said: x posting here @Allsnow No need. We know how to find the Panic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place. Agreed. I actually think that’s our best opportunity with the pacific going back to Nina quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just updated yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place. Its crazy to look past a window with potential that is still 8-10 days out, because the weeklies have been persistent about the 24th lol. This isn't really even a suppressed look. It is a bit too far SE verbatim, and it is still pretty far out there. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Agreed on PD weekend. Way too early to give up on that when all the major globals have a storm SE of the area. It’s not far off from impacting the area w some form of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Lets all effing panic over the pattern not looking so epic beyond 10 days on a smoothed mean. Is this a forest for the trees thing? Maybe the inverse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Yoda might be a goner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yoda might be a goner. Like PSU said 2 months ago… not everyone is going to make it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its crazy to look past a window with potential that is still 8-10 days out, because the weeklies have been persistent about the 24th lol. This isn't really even a suppressed look. It is a bit too far SE verbatim, and it is still pretty far out there. And yeah I mean...aren't we talking about the timing of a phase here? No way that's gonna be resolved yet. The fact that guidance got less suppressed over the last 2-3 cycles...me thinks that's progress (Take that fwiw since it could bevmy baby once the paperwork is approved, so I'll always be biased) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, CAPE said: 0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs. Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours. Some turning on each other. These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War? We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond. 2 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours. Some turning on each other. These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War? We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond. Man, you’re losing everyone around here. You know who the execs usually dump when that happens….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Man, you’re losing everyone around here. You know who the execs usually dump when that happens….. I’m already prepping the AmericanWx Witness protection program. I have new screenames and accounts for Psu, cape, Brooklyn et al. Got them new passports, SSNs and IP masks here. Just in case. I still believe in them, but the natives are setting ornery and restless. Some are ready to mutiny. If we’re not tracking something by PD,I fear the worst. God help us all. 3 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The 23/24 still has potential but I worry about the pacific going to crap quickly. We might want to start rooting for a north trend with the 17th wave I dont disagree with this. It's always a gamble looking 3-6 weeks out via the weeklies etc. But with that said, even if the EPO ridge breaks, it isn't a shit the blinds with the TPV hanging under the NAO block which at least looks stable. Obviously we start needing more HL help on both sides the farther along into the waning part of winter we get. But I wouldn't fold just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I’m already prepping the AmericanWx Witness protection program. I have new screenames and accounts for Psu, cape, Brooklyn et al. Got them new passports, SSNs and IP masks here. Just in case. I still believe in them, but the natives are setting ornery and restless. Some are ready to mutiny. If we’re not tracking something by PD,I fear the worst. God help us all. lol. I don’t think you have to worry about cape. He seems like the type that’ll just brush it off and go outside and get on with life. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yoda might be a goner. He’s done. Northarlington101 just sat there in his foxhole, staring into empty space, firearm by his feet as the German artillery explodes around him. Winterwxlvr is there, telling him to snap out of it to no avail. Winterwxlvr is taking on that entire German artillery unit single handedly. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours. Some turning on each other. These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War? We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond. Will await further instruction based on your 12z pbp for the 13th and later on, lieutenant colonel @stormtracker. Please advise the remaining troops of their position. Godspeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 He’s done. Northarlington101 just sat there in his foxhole, staring into empty space, firearm by his feet as the German artillery explodes around him. Winterwxlvr is there, telling him to snap out of it to no avail. Winterwxlvr is taking on that entire German artillery unit single handedly. If anything I’m a double agent pushing people over the edge. I’m still tracking the VDay storm. I’ll be tracking through May if we’re unlucky enough to get the chance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 fwiw… the days of the hits are PDIII MECS (long duration 10-12”)Mar 3-4 HECS (20-30 central VA, PSU fringed with 8”)March 25 SECS (end of run, at least 6-8”)how could a bad pattern produce that EPS Control run 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: fwiw… the days of the hits are PD MECS (long duration 10-12”) Mar 3-4 HECS (20-30 central VA, PSU fringed with 8”) March 25 SECS (end of run, at least 6-8”) how could a bad pattern produce that EPS Control run I like this better than the control runs WW ussually posts. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours. Some turning on each other. These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War? We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond. Friendly Fire a son of bitch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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