BristowWx Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Those awesome ensembles we saw over the past week? This made me laugh and cry. Helluva post. Tough break for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This made me laugh and cry. Helluva post. Tough break for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 No 50/50... no PNA ridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 No 50/50... no PNA ridge...I noticed today mjo went back to phase 6?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I noticed today mjo went back to phase 6? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Made a hard uturn in the past few days and is now forecast by 2 out of the 3 to enter the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Made a hard uturn in the past few days and is now forecast by 2 out of the 3 to enter the CODMy euro snowchart looks good but I wonder if skewed by non event early next weekSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: My euro snowchart looks good but I wonder if skewed by non event early next week Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk uh yeah it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Where is @brooklynwx99 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I'm hoping to chalk this up to models always struggling with new pattern change regime and they will self correct soon but geezSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Ji said: I'm hoping to chalk this up to models always struggling with new pattern change regime and they will self correct soon but geez Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Hang in there man. We've already lost a few good ones along the way, we can't afford to lose you too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 5 hours ago, Terpeast said: It’s just one run maybe two, and the EPO trend may be incorrectly modeled, but Commodity WG posted this (and I consider them to be credible): https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1756015637673972047?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w Right now I don’t have any confidence in what’s going to happen the rest of this month. None. I’m in wait and see mode now. This isn't a new development though. This has been modeled for many days now. I do think that ridge closing off and shifting north + the Pac trough encroaching on the west coast is the main reason recent guidance is somewhat less cold for the beginning of late month 'prime' window. It looks temporary though as the trough retrogrades a bit with a PNA ridge starting to develop towards the 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, yoda said: Made a hard uturn in the past few days and is now forecast by 2 out of the 3 to enter the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: 0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs. My post showed the 00z EPS Day 10-15 h5. There was nothing nice about it. No PNA ridge, no 50/50... cutoff about to slam into the West which will raise heights into the Plains... 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, yoda said: My post showed the 00z EPS Day 10-15 h5. There was nothing nice about it Nothing nice about it... you need to be more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I see some nice things for that period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Interpretation of LR ens means requires a bit of skill. Nuanced. Look for the hints/trends over several runs 10+ days out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Interpretation of LR ens means requires a bit of skill. Nuanced. Look for the hints/trends over several runs 10+ days out. On 2/9/2024 at 3:01 AM, psuhoffman said: This enough blocking Chuck? Where did the mega 50/50 magically run off to on your post above? Blocking is weaker. NAO weaker. Several runs showed this. Now it's gone. So that's why it's right to be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 18 minutes ago, yoda said: Where did the 50/50 magically run off to? Blocking is weaker. NAO weaker. Several runs showed this. Now it's gone. So that's why it's right to be concerned It's not weak here, and this is 8 days out. Maybe focus on this period and not worry so much about the period beyond that. There will be more error associated with location/strength of h5 features further into the run. Also there will be some actual waxing and waning regardless- the atmosphere is a fluid in motion. Even in a blocky pattern these features can't remain stationary. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I made my good faith effort. No more coddling the panic stricken here. Take it to the other thread. Y'all just getting weenies from me going forward lol. 6 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 x posting here @Allsnow 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: This wasn’t the look the models had a few days for late February. Looks like we won’t make p8 until March which will be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: x posting here @Allsnow The 23/24 still has potential but I worry about the pacific going to crap quickly. We might want to start rooting for a north trend with the 17th wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 12 minutes ago, yoda said: x posting here @Allsnow No need. We know how to find the Panic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place. Agreed. I actually think that’s our best opportunity with the pacific going back to Nina quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just updated yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m still not counting out the potential around PD. It’s a bit suppressed for us, but less suppressed than it was a few days ago. These things trend north most of the time, even though there’s a limit how far north they can get with a block in place. Its crazy to look past a window with potential that is still 8-10 days out, because the weeklies have been persistent about the 24th lol. This isn't really even a suppressed look. It is a bit too far SE verbatim, and it is still pretty far out there. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Agreed on PD weekend. Way too early to give up on that when all the major globals have a storm SE of the area. It’s not far off from impacting the area w some form of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Lets all effing panic over the pattern not looking so epic beyond 10 days on a smoothed mean. Is this a forest for the trees thing? Maybe the inverse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 3 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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