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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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Just now, Ji said:

The gfs is just useless right now. America should be embarrassed

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What if we get snow next Weekend? You could say the GFS sniffed it out first lol.

Gfs had it 3 or 4 runs in a roe a couple days ago 

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Because I am being snarky this evening, I can't wait to see those h5 maps showing AWESOME BLOCKING and shit on the 00z GEFS later tonight and probably on the 00z EPS too.  I'm getting annoyed with them.  Its time to PUSU

ETA -- I'm not talking about the posters... I mean the models

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It’s just one run maybe two, and the EPO trend may be incorrectly modeled, but Commodity WG posted this (and I consider them to be credible):

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1756015637673972047?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w

Right now I don’t have any confidence in what’s going to happen the rest of this month. None. I’m in wait and see mode now. 

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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Because I am being snarky this evening, I can't wait to see those h5 maps showing AWESOME BLOCKING and shit on the 00z GEFS later tonight and probably on the 00z EPS too.  I'm getting annoyed with them.  Its time to PUSU

ETA -- I'm not talking about the posters... I mean the models

That’s why I’m tracking that garbage ass snow threat for Tuesday, the long range stuff is no guarantee

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It’s just one run maybe two, and the EPO trend may be incorrectly modeled, but Commodity WG posted this (and I consider them to be credible):
https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1756015637673972047?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w
Right now I don’t have any confidence in what’s going to happen the rest of this month. None. I’m in wait and see mode now. 
Gefs looks way colder for pd

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Its trended a bit north the last couple of days, though. Less suppression
Something has to be sacrificed for less suppression. Hopefully Carolinas take the fall

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12 minutes ago, yoda said:

PD storm chance on the 00z EURO just peters out as it gets to our region... but there's barely any snow anyway with the entire system

This one may take a bit to figure out....At first it looked like it was either phased bomb or suppressed. And I guess that is still technically the case... But today we've seen the trend away from suppression where the wave has no chance, to with different solutions to the NS interactions. Pull up a chair cause it's gonna be awhile to sort out :lol:

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Made a hard uturn in the past few days and is now forecast by 2 out of the 3 to enter the COD
statphase_full.gif
My euro snowchart looks good but I wonder if skewed by non event early next week

95cedc19038da29d6f61b047cf5d4971.jpg

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Just now, Ji said:

I'm hoping to chalk this up to models always struggling with new pattern change regime and they will self correct soon but geez

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Hang in there man. We've already lost a few good ones along the way, we can't afford to lose you too. 

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5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It’s just one run maybe two, and the EPO trend may be incorrectly modeled, but Commodity WG posted this (and I consider them to be credible):

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1756015637673972047?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w

Right now I don’t have any confidence in what’s going to happen the rest of this month. None. I’m in wait and see mode now. 

This isn't a new development though. This has been modeled for many days now. I do think that ridge closing off and shifting north + the Pac trough encroaching on the west coast is the main reason recent guidance is somewhat less cold for the beginning of late month 'prime' window. It looks temporary though as the trough retrogrades a bit with a PNA ridge starting to develop towards the 23rd.

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0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs.

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28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs.

My post showed the 00z EPS Day 10-15 h5.  There was nothing nice about it.  No PNA ridge, no 50/50... cutoff about to slam into the West which will raise heights into the Plains...

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