CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 51 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? We'd be a snow town again!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window. If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range. My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? Increase the air pressure. Remember at higher altitudes it takes longer to cook foods? Because lower air pressure = lower boiling point. Higher air pressure, higher freezing point. THIS, is how you get water to freeze at say 45 degrees. We might need to increase the planetary gravity some. Invent gravity plating, or better yet, gravity inducing force fields. I am desperate for snow in the Mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range. My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor. All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? Actually, Heavy water freezes at about 38.9 F, so we just need to replace all normal hydrogen with deuterium. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Latest WB 18Z GEFS is colder than normal over Feb. 17-21 but not as cold as previous runs thereafter. Any concerns? 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: We are getting REALLY DESPERATE when we resort to Dr Seuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 52 minutes ago, CAPE said: Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far. Just picked up a 4 of kbs and a 4 of cbs. Delish...both. I agree pd is in play still. Not pd3 but that's fine. Eta: this shit be expensive....need a cheaper vice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: All I’ve gathered from my years here is that you want the red orb on top of us and the blue orb to the right of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much. So I'm guessing that's just something more random that just so happens to be a thing this winter? (In the case of PD I guess we need that ns interaction like a couple of you have mentioned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 ^thats an amazing signal given the lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 There’s my baby 6 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There’s my baby More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, CAPE said: More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks. If this thing happens, that’s certainly the longest lead I’ve ever seen verify for a storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If this thing happens, that’s certainly the longest lead I’ve ever seen verify for a storm. It would be a little crazy. This one better not fizzle. It will be the end of many here. WW is teetering. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There’s my baby Then I'll claim PD as MY baby then! I think he can be the most special baby on the models if he puts his mind to it and NOBODY will tell me otherwise! I'll stay with it till I can't no mo...so may the best baby win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It would be a little crazy. This one better not fizzle. It will be the end of many here. WW is teetering. 5” DCA, 7” BWI, 8” IAD all with mixing. 16” Mt PSU. Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Then I'll claim PD as MY baby then! I think he can be the most special baby on the models if he puts his mind to it and NOBODY will tell me otherwise! I'll stay with it till I can't no mo...so may the best baby win I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him. I'll go file the adoption papers with his agency. I'm confident it will be granted... @Ji! Consultation requested 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks. Once I saw the blocking start to go nuts on progs mid Feb it was a matter of timing when it would peak and start to relax some. Adding up all the variables around Feb 22-25 made sense. As we get closer the signal has only gotten stronger. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: There’s my baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'll go file the adoption papers with his agency. I'm confident it will be granted... @Ji! Consultation requested You'll have to await the Digital Blue society's final approval. Until there's a lot of consistent digital blue, no go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 js out of curiosity are we not worried that nearly all of the gefs members having a storm for 2/24 have a predominant rain storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 9 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: js out of curiosity are we not worried that nearly all of the gefs members having a storm for 2/24 have a predominant rain storm? There's alot of above Normal 850s and 2m temps after day 10. No one is really talking about it but it certainly concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 32 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: You'll have to await the Digital Blue society's final approval. Until there's a lot of consistent digital blue, no go! Ehh always a bunch of blue tape with these people... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: There's alot of above Normal 850s and 2m temps after day 10. No one is really talking about it but it certainly concerns me. I suspect it’s partly because of smoothing between cool downs and warm ups, but with a dynamic storm that runs south of us we’ll get mostly snow. I don’t have much confidence in these rainstorm depictions with such a strong blocking episode coming up, so I guess that’s why most mets aren’t talking about it unless they have a warm bias or are panicking. we could go a couple degrees warmer across the board except when a vort passes south of us, and we’d still snow even (and especially) in late feb early march 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 hours ago, Jebman said: We are getting REALLY DESPERATE when we resort to Dr Seuss. The snow did not fall. The models had nothing good to say. So we sat in the house All that cold, cold, wet Presidents' Day. I sat there with a @psuhoffman tome, We sat there, us two. And I said, "how I wish There was something we could do!" Too warm at 850. And surface temps did not fall. So we sat in the house. We did nothing at all. So all we could do was take the blinds, and Shit! Shit! Shit! Shit! And we did not like it. Not one little bit. And then a shovel went BUMP! How that bump made us jump! We looked! Then we saw him step in on the mat! We looked! And we saw him! The @Jebman in the hat! And he said to us, "Why do you shit the blinds like that?" I know it is wet And it's half through Feb-rary. But fear not, we'll get our snow So don't commit hari-kari!" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I just KNEW Dr Jebman Seuss was gonna come along lmfao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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