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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window.

1708236000-TRiDyIlOgRk.png

1708257600-kC9okrqFlzA.png

If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range.

My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor. 

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1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees???

Increase the air pressure. Remember at higher altitudes it takes longer to cook foods? Because lower air pressure = lower boiling point. Higher air pressure, higher freezing point. THIS, is how you get water to freeze at say 45 degrees.  We might need to increase the planetary gravity some. Invent gravity plating, or better yet, gravity inducing force fields.

I am desperate for snow in the Mid Atlantic.

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range.

My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor. 

All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much.

1708246800-fksfC6NeQtk.png

So I'm guessing that's just something more random that just so happens to be a thing this winter? (In the case of PD I guess we need that ns interaction like a couple of you have mentioned).

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Then I'll claim PD as MY baby then! I think he can be the most special baby on the models if he puts his mind to it and NOBODY will tell me otherwise! I'll stay with it till I can't no mo...so may the best baby win :lol:

I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him.B)

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27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks. 

Once I saw the blocking start to go nuts on progs mid Feb it was a matter of timing when it would peak and start to relax some. Adding up all the variables around Feb 22-25 made sense. As we get closer the signal has only gotten stronger. 

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9 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

js out of curiosity are we not worried that nearly all of the gefs members having a storm for 2/24 have a predominant rain storm?

There's alot of above Normal 850s and 2m temps after day 10. No one is really talking about it but it certainly concerns me.

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

There's alot of above Normal 850s and 2m temps after day 10. No one is really talking about it but it certainly concerns me.

I suspect it’s partly because of smoothing between cool downs and warm ups, but with a dynamic storm that runs south of us we’ll get mostly snow. I don’t have much confidence in these rainstorm depictions with such a strong blocking episode coming up, so I guess that’s why most mets aren’t talking about it unless they have a warm bias or are panicking.

we could go a couple degrees warmer across the board except when a vort passes south of us, and we’d still snow even (and especially) in late feb early march

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2 hours ago, Jebman said:

We are getting REALLY DESPERATE when we resort to Dr Seuss.

The snow did not fall.
The models had nothing good to say.
So we sat in the house
All that cold, cold, wet Presidents' Day.

I sat there with a @psuhoffman tome,
We sat there, us two.
And I said, "how I wish
There was something we could do!"

Too warm at 850.
And surface temps did not fall.
So we sat in the house.
We did nothing at all.

So all we could do was take the blinds, and
Shit!
Shit!
Shit!
Shit!
And we did not like it.
Not one little bit.

And then a shovel went BUMP!
How that bump made us jump!
We looked!
Then we saw him step in on the mat!
We looked!
And we saw him!
The @Jebman in the hat!

And he said to us,
"Why do you shit the blinds like that?"
I know it is wet
And it's half through Feb-rary.
But fear not, we'll get our snow
So don't commit hari-kari!"

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