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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Screw that one of my favorite non HECS storms was the March 20 2018 storm. I’ll take snow on July 4 if that’s when I can get it. People around here who are picky about when it snows might need a smack upside the head to remind them where we live. 

Totally agree!  It's like the complaints about how 2016 was a one-hit-wonder but otherwise sucked.  Complaining that 2016 was nothing but one big storm is like saying "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

And yeah, that March 2018 "first day of spring" event was great!  There have been many such snowstorms in March, even if they aren't HECS level.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

That would put me in excellent position to win the snowfall contest 

I am gonna win the snowfall contest. NO ONE forecast near as much snow, as I did.

We ARE gonna get that snow. You better get about twenty shovels and a metric ton of whatever you use to stay awake because we are gonna be trackin' DAY AND NIGHT! We are gonna be tracking storms so much the models will be in our dreams lmao. Except that these dreams will come gloriously true!

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Pretty crazy H5 evolution next week for the fish storm. Just out of curiosity, what would it take to tug it a little closer to the coast?


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a nice volcano eruption i heard that read this in the past a good size eruption can effect weather for weeks to come   

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Don’t look now but 0z gfs trended even further west with the TPV lobe and phases into a closed h5 low over delmarva. Clips cape cod. 

Very close to a coastal MA hit. Razor thin close. Continue this trend, it’s back alive for eastern folks. 

Unfortunately it’s on its own with only the icon for support. Other models way OTS

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im a bit north of you guys sadly when I looked forward to 15 most days have highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. unless something changes I dont even think the rest of the winter does any thing but mild. i was thankful we finally got a bit of snow this winter tho

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1 hour ago, Ruin said:

im a bit north of you guys sadly when I looked forward to 15 most days have highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. unless something changes I dont even think the rest of the winter does any thing but mild. i was thankful we finally got a bit of snow this winter tho

lots of screen saver worthy ensemble porn.  fantasy at this point...

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6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

crazy that we keep consistently seeing split flow like this

gfs-deterministic-namer-z250_speed-8128000.thumb.png.1a22fa8e54f059b4f96926751d0f2432.png

Too damn BAD I am an old man.  I will never ever figure out how to get that epic split flow on my avatar. It's 2024 and I got lost millennia ago lmfao 

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35 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

The entire GFS was horrible. White hot Canada the entire run. I guess the pattern starts after that.

The pattern will take some time to transition, but all the ensembles say its happening. Early on, say the 12th-16th, although its possible the MA could see an event with some frozen, areas further north are favored as it looks right now. The potential storm for mid month looks NS dominant with energy moving southward in the flow between the PNA ridge and the TPV. Difficult to say how that plays out for our region, but behind that it looks like colder air should be in place with a more active southern stream.

1708020000-cBTXpi0cyjY.png

1708020000-jf6nHSVd78g.png

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Play that forward and the energy in 4 corners could work out depending on if the energy around the lakes is able to compress the flow a bit

1deb6b9544652ed69546e2324442f1a7.jpg


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By the way I was right. The 00z control turned that wave into a Mid Atlantic hit. Lala land but at least it’s an example of a more winter storm conducive pattern starting Feb 14-15


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