mattie g Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is very aggressive for the 24th I see they we’re losing the 50/50 and that the NAO is positive, so it looks bad to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is very aggressive for the 24th Beeee-youuuuu-teeee-fullll! And looks plenty cold enough judging from that 540 height line 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: ^looks like even an indication of northern stream energy phasing in? Looks like it. A bit too north. Much different than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 12z GEFS for the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed? Chuck did research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd Big dog woof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd Doesn't seem AS suppressed if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd It’s suppressed. Looks like it’s coming to get us and the light stuff hits DC then it’s exit stage right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 It’s suppressed. Looks like it’s coming to get us and the light stuff hits DC then it’s exit stage right It jumped north 600 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 8 minutes ago, Ji said: It jumped north 600 miles I didn’t say it wasn’t better. Just still suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 The last couple of runs of eps kind of kills the +PNA in the long range. We can't have that for a favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I did t say it wasn’t better. Just still suppressed I'd daresay this was close...but more experienced minds can weigh seeing as I'm still a bit H5 illiterate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 7 minutes ago, Ji said: It jumped north 600 miles Yes and still warm. With that track from 18z GFS I don’t understand why there isn’t more cold air. What has to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd daresay this was close...but more experienced minds can weigh seeing as I'm still a but H5 illiterate 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Just now, wasnow215 said: Yes and still warm. With that track from 18z GFS I don’t understand why there isn’t more cold air. What has to happen? Volcanic eruption or meteor. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Volcanic eruption or meteor. Haha so you done know either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Just now, wasnow215 said: Haha so you done know either Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees??? Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in? Move the Earth further from the sun 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in? OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 goa low on EPS for the 24th signal, jet is extended right amount and in good spot(this usually js comes with +EPO), pacific troughing/goa low is correlated to snow for us bc it implies enhanced STJ as others have said it looks good for 24th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor. But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more. The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada. We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific. At least according to the GFS ops. Here's one snapshot: Ty! Seems like if things are still this volatile from run to run things can still pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 PD is by no means "dead". No it doesn't look like big dog potential, but there is a signal for a storm there. The latest op runs indicate it will require timing with NS energy. Well this isnt surprising- it has been a theme, even in the one week deep winter period back in Jan. So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. My wag is it won't be going forward either. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Ty! Seems like if things are still this volatile from run to run things can still pan out. I'd let others more knowledgeable chime in, but that was just my back-of-the-envelope thought and assessment. And yeah, it's looking at the ops GFS at 240 hours. I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in that...being an ops run at that time range, plus, well, the GFS. But taken in isolation, I don't care for that flow as it's shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. Why do you think that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: PD is by no means "dead". No it doesn't look like big dog potential, but there is a signal for a storm there. The latest op runs indicate it will require timing with NS energy. Well this isnt surprising- it has been a theme, even in the one week deep winter period. So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. My wag is it won't be going forward either. The real question. How many 120’s deep are you!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: The real question. How many 120’s deep are you!? Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far. Those 2 together easily in ABV probably = 1-120 Min? Is that how math works? I dunno. Pretty good reason I dropped trying to be a meteorologist my freshman year of college. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do you think that is? The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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