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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If it’s getting this bad in here, wait until I post my winter 2024-25 preview after getting shut out  this feb and march :devilsmiley:

We still have that one week of winter in January and no one, and I mean no one, can take that away from us

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1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

We still have that one week of winter in January and no one, and I mean no one, can take that away from us

We do, indeed. I hope we cherish that week for a long time to come. 

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1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

A West-based NAO born and raised
Over Greenland was where I spent most of my days
Chillin' out, maxin', relaxin', all cool
And all blockin' the arctic airmass pool

When a couple of highs who were up to no good
Started suppressing waves in my neighborhood
I got one southern slider and Ji got scared
He said, "You're movin' winter back to March it's not fair"

Post of the winter.

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31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If it’s getting this bad in here, wait until I post my winter 2024-25 preview after getting shut out  this feb and march :devilsmiley:

Yeah.. did you guys see the NOAA issued a La Nina watch 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower

And it could be +QBO next year too.. and the last time we had +NAO we hit 80 in January! 

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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We do, indeed. I hope we cherish that week for a long time to come. 

I got 9.5” in two storms that week. I’m good for this winter Maybe even next winter as well. Fuck it! See everyone in 2026. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I got 9.5” in two storms that week. I’m good for this winter Maybe even next winter as well. Fuck it! See everyone in 2026. :lol:

Thinking of either going to whistler for skiing or visiting my brother in Spokane next winter

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thinking of either going to whistler for skiing or visiting my brother in Spokane next winter

Need a fellow skier to travel with? Whistler is at the top of my list of mountains I need to ski. I’m serious. Let me know. Ok…back to beer sales I go. B)

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Need a fellow skier to travel with? Whistler is at the top of my list of mountains I need to ski. I’m serious. Let me know. Ok…back to beer sales I go. B)

Sure! For now my idea was a dart toss at a La Nina climo map most favorable for snow, lol 

But if I go through with it, it'll be a family trip with the wife and kid in tow... though I might want to hit the steeper slopes with a fellow skier while they stick with the bunnies B)

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10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sure! For now my idea was a dart toss at a La Nina climo map most favorable for snow, lol 

But if I go through with it, it'll be a family trip with the wife and kid in tow... though I might want to hit the steeper slopes with a fellow skier while they stick with the bunnies B)

Early word is JB’s favoring 95-96 as his top analog

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro has a southern wave..like way south into Mexico, but it won't be able to amplify.   On to 18 and 0z!  

Every model run thar does that it just looks like the wave says PD3 as it slides south...man the psu storm...hope it works. We can't get shutout this month and gamble with March to try to get to 25-30" like many predictions did. We may have an idea in 10 days...(when that storm would be in modeling range)

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro has a southern wave..like way south into Mexico, but it won't be able to amplify.   On to 18 and 0z!  

I know this PD3 wave will likely be suppressed, but damn, the look of that storm brewing in the plains on all the globals around D7 gets my loins movin’…

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Did you guys see my NG research? It's since fallen down to 1.83 https://ibb.co/kxdbZSs

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Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline.

Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price:

https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf

https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW

^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time).  I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE. 

100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related!

Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023.  I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing!

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