stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS Might be kinda cold though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS Jesus F'ing Squished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A West-based NAO born and raisedOver Greenland was where I spent most of my daysChillin' out, maxin', relaxin', all coolAnd all blockin' the arctic airmass pool When a couple of highs who were up to no goodStarted suppressing waves in my neighborhoodI got one southern slider and Ji got scaredHe said, "You're movin' winter back to March it's not fair" 2 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This isn't that bad from this range. What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles. On which ensembles did we lose the 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Wxdood said: I would rather not debate this in this thread. I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc. Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns. There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum. It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion. I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count. Just saying it would be nice. It's already been somewhat said but completely ignoring the MAJOR geographic differences between the two is bad science/forecasting/discussion. Hoffman's point holds true whether CC is happening or not. This has nothing to do with that topic. Siberia is not North America. Never was, never will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: On which ensembles did we lose the 50/50? https://ibb.co/YP0TMQd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This isn't that bad from this range. What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles. agreed....ill take that look at 8 days out and take my chances.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat. This looks moderately negative to you? Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This looks moderately negative to you? Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after! a 300dm block on a 52 member ensemble is absolutely ridiculous. it's like 2-3 sigma. post made no sense 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This looks moderately negative to you? Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after! Yeah.. that ridge near Japan is approaching the same extent. It doesn't even close off a block. In the last year, we've seen 3 stronger -NAO events (March '23, early Dec '24, Jan '24). GEFS is a weaker signal right now though, and 6z is more recent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I was responding to comments, one of which was yours. So no. I’ve said this before but I’m not playing that game where someone brings up something then says “why are we talking about this”. Sorry that isn’t as clever or subtle as you think and I’m not stupid. It’s insulting that you think that would work. Take that passive aggressive BS nonsense somewhere else. Sheesh... Passive aggressive BS? Little bit of an overreaction bud. Wasn't just talking about your comment today but here is an example. See below: Posted 11 hours ago 11 hours ago, cbmclean said: Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be. Perhaps correlated to low continental snow extent? Or something else also I don't know how to What something else were you alluding to here? Like I said it would be nice to just stick to the topic instead of alluding to this or that... Two other threads and an entire section of the website itself to panic about "something else". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah.. that ridge near Japan is approaching the same extent. It doesn't even close off a block. In the last year, we've seen 3 stronger -NAO events (March '23, early Dec '24, Jan '24). GEFS is a weaker signal right now though, and 6z is more recent. Ok you’re off in loony tunes land. That’s about as perfect a block as we can get. We don’t want more blocking than that. As it is it’s squashing everything for days to begin with and we have to wait for it to relax some. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok you’re off in loony tunes land. That’s about as perfect a block as we can get. We don’t want more blocking than that. As it is it’s squashing everything for days to begin with and we have to wait for it to relax some. It's not even a block. And the tendency is for things to be warmer. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not even a block. You've been munching on those cubes in your picture again, haven't you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Here's a strong NAO we had.. a few days ago https://ibb.co/31LQ0dy 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Sheesh... Passive aggressive BS? Little bit of an overreaction bud. Wasn't just talking about your comment today but here is an example. See below: Posted 11 hours ago 11 hours ago, cbmclean said: Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be. Perhaps correlated to low continental snow extent? Or something else also I don't know how to What something else were you alluding to here? Like I said it would be nice to just stick to the topic instead of alluding to this or that... Two other threads and an entire section of the website itself to panic about "something else". That was last night to someone else and I did as much as possible to reply to a legit question honestly without going into a warming discussion. But that post also had nothing to do with the conversation you were responding to which I also was careful to avoid directly getting into any CC discussion. If your mad that the replies simply allude vaguely to the fact it is warmer then grow TF up and deal with it. But nice bait and switch attempt. I suggest you stop. For the record I’m done playing nice with anyone who tries this Fng BS nonsense anymore. If a question or legit discussion comes up that is ancillary related to warming and I or someone else responds as innocuously as possible but inevitably the reply just alludes or only hints to the fact warming exists and this hurts your fragile ego I suggest you suck it up and cope some other way than passive aggressive attempted to shut down any mention that it’s warmer in a weather discussion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not even a block. And the tendency is for things to be warmer. @stormtracker tell him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's a strong NAO we had.. a few days ago https://ibb.co/31LQ0dy Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not even a block. And the tendency is for things to be warmer. Shit up, Chuck. 1 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 27 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Sheesh... Passive aggressive BS? Little bit of an overreaction bud. Wasn't just talking about your comment today but here is an example. See below: Posted 11 hours ago 11 hours ago, cbmclean said: Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be. Perhaps correlated to low continental snow extent? Or something else also I don't know how to What something else were you alluding to here? Like I said it would be nice to just stick to the topic instead of alluding to this or that... Two other threads and an entire section of the website itself to panic about "something else". Lack of snow is making everyone a bit salty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's a strong NAO we had.. a few days ago https://ibb.co/31LQ0dy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Well, at least it is the GFS and an Op run. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Lack of snow is making everyone a bit salty. Exactly. I was just laughing as I’m reading all the snarky comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was last night to someone else and I did as much as possible to reply to a legit question honestly without going into a warming discussion. But that post also had nothing to do with the conversation you were responding to which I also was careful to avoid directly getting into any CC discussion. If your mad that the replies simply allude vaguely to the fact it is warmer then grow TF up and deal with it. But nice bait and switch attempt. I suggest you stop. For the record I’m done playing nice with anyone who tries this Fng BS nonsense anymore. If a question or legit discussion comes up that is ancillary related to warming and I or someone else responds as innocuously as possible but inevitably the reply just alludes or only hints to the fact warming exists and this hurts your fragile ego I suggest you suck it up and cope some other way than passive aggressive attempted to shut down any mention that it’s warmer in a weather discussion. There is NOTHING being discussed on this sub that warrants an I’m done playing nice response. WTAF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Exactly. I was just laughing as I’m reading all the snarky comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Getting punchy up in here. HECS can't come soon enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Getting punchy up in here. HECS can't come soon enough Might be time to break out the Downfall video: Das snow ist befell!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Getting punchy up in here. HECS can't come soon enough Man that block squashing a would be PD3 (or just a day after) wave on the 12z gfs and gem hurt my feelings, lol We gotta be tracking by next week or else y'all might have to rebuild this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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