Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Ok, 

Now that’s deceitful. That’s my storm.  It hits Feb 20-22 not PD weekend!  That particular run of the euro was just a little faster with the progression.  
look at the snow through Tuesday Feb 20!

then by the 23

That wasn’t the PD threat. It’s squashed that wave on the 18-19th. That’s the wave after that I’ve always liked. 
 

The timing isn’t even the same. Originally the PD threat was supposed to be a wave on the 17-18. That’s now so dead people have turned to the next wave which barely even qualifies since it might start on the 19th maybe. 

[LeesburgWx]

A question I have been wanting to ask, and now seems like a good time to do so, is what is a 100% perfect 500mb map look like for the DC area? There is always something to critique it seems so can someone draw a perfect map? I assume even with the biggest storms in the past, the maps would have had something to criticize. Thanks in advance

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

I would rather not debate this in this thread.  I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc.  Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns.  There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum.  It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion.  I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count.  Just saying it would be nice.

I was responding to comments, one of which was yours. So no. I’ve said this before but I’m not playing that game where someone brings up something then says “why are we talking about this”.  Sorry that isn’t as clever or subtle as you think and I’m not stupid. It’s insulting that you think that would work. Take that passive aggressive BS nonsense somewhere else. 

[SnowenOutThere]

15 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

I would rather not debate this in this thread.  I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc.  Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns.  There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum.  It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion.  I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count.  Just saying it would be nice.

To be a modern day forecaster, especially in temp sensitive situations, requires discussion of it to be the best possible forecaster… not sure how that’s hard to understand. You need to factor in all variables to get the right solution, unfortunately background warming is part of those variables now 

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

A question I have been wanting to ask, and now seems like a good time to do so, is what is a 100% perfect 500mb map look like for the DC area? There is always something to critique it seems so can someone draw a perfect map? I assume even with the biggest storms in the past, the maps would have had something to criticize. Thanks in advance

Would think 96, 2009 or 2016 is a nice depiction.  2016 was just stupid with snow.  hope to see that again before I buy the farm.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

A question I have been wanting to ask, and now seems like a good time to do so, is what is a 100% perfect 500mb map look like for the DC area? There is always something to critique it seems so can someone draw a perfect map? I assume even with the biggest storms in the past, the maps would have had something to criticize. Thanks in advance

It’s hard to say from one panel in a vacuum. It’s about a progression.  But I think these two plots from last nights eps show what you are looking for. 

The 18th here is a great “loading pattern” but it’s a look we want to see like 3-5 days before a big storm. It’s not a day of look. 

The key here is that block 50/50 combo is going to press the boundary way south in the east. We want that because to get a big storm when a wave is on approach we need the boundary to our south. This sets us up. But look at the flow. Ridge axis is way too far east. The stj is way south. This is a suppressed look for this day. An STJ wave isn’t likely to amplify along the east coast under that. 
 

But roll that forward to this. This is close to perfect. 
the blocking is relaxing. The 50/50 Did its job but is now shifting east allowing room for amplification. The wave is centered in the TN valley. The ridge axis is in the mountain west.  It’s subtle because all the pac waves will wash out a ridge at that range but it’s there.
 

If I wanted to be super picky I would still prefer that pac trough western ridge be a slight smudge west. But now I’m being really picky.  That look there is close to the perfect storm look when taken in conjunction with the look ahead of it. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

To be a modern day forecaster, especially in temp sensitive situations, requires discussion of it to be the best possible forecaster… not sure how that’s hard to understand. You need to factor in all variables to get the right solution, unfortunately background warming is part of those variables now 

I didn’t even talk about warming. I said the fact Siberia can get cold has no bearing on us because they have a completely different geographic reality than us. It’s like when people point out it’s snowing somewhere at 10,000 feet lol. I said nothing about CC. It can be implied through deductive reasoning of course but this is ridiculous. That was some BS game they were playing there. There was no discussion of CC going on. 

[Heisy]

It’s hard to say from one panel in a vacuum. It’s about a progression.  But I think these two plots from last nights eps show what you are looking for. 

The 18th here is a great “loading pattern” but it’s a look we want to see like 3-5 days before a big storm. It’s not a day of look. 

The key here is that block 50/50 combo is going to press the boundary way south in the east. We want that because to get a big storm when a wave is on approach we need the boundary to our south. This sets us up. But look at the flow. Ridge axis is way too far east. The stj is way south. This is a suppressed look for this day. An STJ wave isn’t likely to amplify along the east coast under that. 
 
But roll that forward to this. This is close to perfect. 
the blocking is relaxing. The 50/50 Did its job but is now shifting east allowing room for amplification. The wave is centered in the TN valley. The ridge axis is in the mountain west.  It’s subtle because all the pac waves will wash out a ridge at that range but it’s there.
 
If I wanted to be super picky I would still prefer that pac trough western ridge be a slight smudge west. But now I’m being really picky.  That look there is close to the perfect storm look when taken in conjunction with the look ahead of it. 

Blizzard of 24 24 has a better ring to it anyway


.

[nmyers1204]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t even talk about warming. I said the fact Siberia can get cold has no bearing on us because they have a completely different geographic reality than us. It’s like when people point out it’s snowing somewhere at 10,000 feet lol. I said nothing about CC. It can be implied through deductive reasoning of course but this is ridiculous. That was some BS game they were playing there. There was no discussion of CC going on. 

Hey! Leave Carroll County alone! Westminster is the greatest city in the whole wide world!

[Heisy]

End of 6z control changed the pac pattern up a bit vs 00z euro run. Wonder if 12z can muster up anything with the STJ during 12z run


.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. 

The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat. 

[Shad]

gfs at 186 looks interesting

[Paleocene]

Hoping the GFS can pull something off for PD weekend, against all hope

[Shad]

1045 High north of texas....hmmm

[stormtracker]

PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS

Might be kinda cold though? 

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS

Jesus F'ing Squished

[paulythegun]

A West-based NAO born and raised
Over Greenland was where I spent most of my days
Chillin' out, maxin', relaxin', all cool
And all blockin' the arctic airmass pool

When a couple of highs who were up to no good
Started suppressing waves in my neighborhood
I got one southern slider and Ji got scared
He said, "You're movin' winter back to March it's not fair"

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This isn't that bad from this range. 

What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles. 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles. 

On which ensembles did we lose the 50/50?

[TSG]

1 hour ago, Wxdood said:

I would rather not debate this in this thread.  I lurk the forum to read talk about models, patterns etc.  Not discussion alluding to you-know-what causing warm temperatures in winter or our patterns.  There is an entire section of this webside devoted to you-know-what, there is a panic room thread, and a banter thread inside the Mid Atlantic Forum.  It would be nice to keep the Long Range thread for Long Range discussion.  I realize I may not have much pull in this request because of my post count.  Just saying it would be nice.

It's already been somewhat said but completely ignoring the MAJOR geographic differences between the two is bad science/forecasting/discussion. Hoffman's point holds true whether CC is happening or not. This has nothing to do with that topic. Siberia is not North America. Never was, never will be.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

On which ensembles did we lose the 50/50?

https://ibb.co/YP0TMQd

[Shad]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This isn't that bad from this range. 

What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles. 

agreed....ill take that look at 8 days out and take my chances....

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. 

The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat. 

This looks moderately negative to you?  Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after!  

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This looks moderately negative to you?  Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after!  

a 300dm block on a 52 member ensemble is absolutely ridiculous. it's like 2-3 sigma. post made no sense

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This looks moderately negative to you?  Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after!  

Yeah.. that ridge near Japan is approaching the same extent. It doesn't even close off a block. In the last year, we've seen 3 stronger -NAO events (March '23, early Dec '24, Jan '24). GEFS is a weaker signal right now though, and 6z is more recent. 

[Wxdood]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I was responding to comments, one of which was yours. So no. I’ve said this before but I’m not playing that game where someone brings up something then says “why are we talking about this”.  Sorry that isn’t as clever or subtle as you think and I’m not stupid. It’s insulting that you think that would work. Take that passive aggressive BS nonsense somewhere else. 

Sheesh...  Passive aggressive BS?  Little bit of an overreaction bud.  Wasn't just talking about your comment today but here is an example.  See below:

Posted 11 hours ago

  11 hours ago, cbmclean said:

 

Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be.  Perhaps  correlated to low continental snow extent?

Or something else also 

 

I don't know how to

 

What something else were you alluding to here?  Like I said it would be nice to just stick to the topic instead of alluding to this or that...  Two other threads and an entire section of the website itself to panic about "something else". 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah.. that ridge near Japan is approaching the same extent. It doesn't even close off a block. In the last year, we've seen 3 stronger -NAO events (March '23, early Dec '24, Jan '24). GEFS is a weaker signal right now though, and 6z is more recent. 

Ok you’re off in loony tunes land. That’s about as perfect a block as we can get. We don’t want more blocking than that. As it is it’s squashing everything for days to begin with and we have to wait for it to relax some. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok you’re off in loony tunes land. That’s about as perfect a block as we can get. We don’t want more blocking than that. As it is it’s squashing everything for days to begin with and we have to wait for it to relax some. 

It's not even a block. 

And the tendency is for things to be warmer. 

[mattie g]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's not even a block. 

You've been munching on those cubes in your picture again, haven't you.