Jebman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Larry Cosgrove alludes to 'something special' possibly brewing in the Mid Atlantic associated with the blocking. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/CMQw3ZKTNKc 'In a sense, the south central, Mid-Atlantic and New England states have the chance for "something really special" in terms of precipitation amount and type.' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. 2 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I waant using the gfs. I’ve been looking at the euro control and ensemble members. They have been consistently showing underwhelming temps. A couple runs ago the euro had a storm that should have been a big snow for NC/SC but was just rain. Not even close really. And the reason the snow mean isn’t lighting up more than it is for the Feb 21-24 period is that there are quite a few perfect track rainstorms within the ensemble members. The eps h5, slp, and precip look amazing. Then the snow output looks blah. The reason is the temps. All the cold is on the other side of the pole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike. Yep Lake Tahoe March Winter Incoming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: All the cold is on the other side of the pole Seems to be the case for the past 5+ years. There is cold but not our side of the globe. Likely to change eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. Like I said almost 2 weeks ago, y'all are so welcome. You should be measuring in feet between the 22nd and Mar 6th as I'll be in CA..... You can even name them the 'notwxdude storms' or 'wxdude not here storms' if you wish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 37 minutes ago, Ji said: I prefer the FAKE punt by FSU (vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game), when they came back from a 21-3 deficit and went on to win... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 31 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike. It would be a bummer with the end of the month pattern not to score an all snow event for my area and @CAPE . But, I get it. Even @psuhoffman mentioned some frustrations with temps. I will remain optimistic. Hopefully things get active ( snowy ) and you can offer your valued insights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 EPS lighting up GEFS still washed out for that period, GEPS too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: EPS lighting up GEFS still washed out for that period, GEPS too GEFS seems to like a few days earlier, but there’s a signal roughly at the same time as the eps on the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 51 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s the one signal that hasn’t wavered. Been on the guidance since the Mesopotamian model was the go-to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Share the skepticism but I have to let the entire "window of opportunity" play out before I pull out Lucy....skeptical because the week of 19th seems to be slipping also and now once again looking two weeks out.... unlike Jan. Winter Week which held firm in guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Share the skepticism but I have to let the entire "window of opportunity" play out before I pull out Lucy....skeptical because the week of 19th seems to be slipping also and now once again looking two weeks out.... unlike Jan. Winter Week which held firm in guidance. When was the 19th and that week in play? If I remember correctly, there was going to be a dry period as blocking strengthens. It peaks around the 20th, and then that’s when our chances start. Nothing seems to be slipping away for me. And our 850mb climo is still -3 in late Feb, so we’re still fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. As predicted, we’re losing a lot of troops. You hate to see it. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Share the skepticism but I have to let the entire "window of opportunity" play out before I pull out Lucy....skeptical because the week of 19th seems to be slipping also and now once again looking two weeks out.... unlike Jan. Winter Week which held firm in guidance. lol I don’t think our winter week in January held firm at all besides it being chilly. It was looking plausibly snowless even 48 hours before the Monday storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: As predicted, we’re losing a lot of troops. You hate to see it. More snow for us. Is that how that works? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As predicted, we’re losing a lot of troops. You hate to see it. Will, master of panic and doom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: When was the 19th and that week in play? If I remember correctly, there was going to be a dry period as blocking strengthens. It peaks around the 20th, and then that’s when our chances start. Nothing seems to be slipping away for me. And our 850mb climo is still -3 in late Feb, so we’re still fine Not giving up, but there are plenty of posts about PD3, which I guess is now off the table. I am being impatient at this point, not bailing....was hoping for something to track by the end of this weekend inside 2 weeks. Maybe the Cape storm around the 24th will be it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not giving up, but there are plenty of posts about PD3, which I guess is now off the table. I am being impatient at this point, not bailing....was hoping for something to track by the end of this weekend inside 2 weeks. Maybe the Cape storm around the 24th will be it! I mean, it's not a high probability, but models are still hinting at Tuesday. It's at least trackable for another few runs or so. Things should start to show up on the long range in the next few days I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: All the cold is on the other side of the pole 1 hour ago, Wxdood said: Seems to be the case for the past 5+ years. There is cold but not our side of the globe. Likely to change eventually. Siberia is a huge high latitude land mass sheltered from any wind flow off a warm body of water. That isn’t a coincidence. The fact it can still get cold in Siberia means absolutely nothing to us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 33 minutes ago, frd said: It would be a bummer with the end of the month pattern not to score an all snow event for my area and @CAPE . But, I get it. Even @psuhoffman mentioned some frustrations with temps. I will remain optimistic. Hopefully things get active ( snowy ) and you can offer your valued insights. The Pacific low encroaches on the west coast for a time and that means downstream we get airmasses that are modified. It looks temporary and with the favorable NA, it would come down to the exact track. With marginal cold around, we would need a low to track underneath and a bit off the coast to keep a flow from the north. Big dogs that wind up along the coast are always problematic to some degree for I95 and east even with arctic air initially in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I mean, it's not a high probability, but models are still hinting at Tuesday. It's at least trackable for another few runs or so. Things should start to show up on the long range in the next few days I would think. Was just looking at GEFS for Tuesday, know this is the wrong thread but it looks better than I thought it would.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not giving up, but there are plenty of posts about PD3, which I guess is now off the table. I am being impatient at this point, not bailing....was hoping for something to track by the end of this weekend inside 2 weeks. Maybe the Cape storm around the 24th will be it! Other than a couple runs of the worst model there is what has shown a snow there? A single euro run? Any ggem? Did the ensemble means ever light up for that weekend? No. Weenies who love to say PD3 every year have latched onto it. First it was a weak wave around the 17th. Now that’s dead it’s a wave around the 19-20 which I guess is still technically PD if it starts Monday? That one has a bit more of a chance. Euro last night almost pulled it off but not until the 20th. It’s slower than the gfs. But either way that was never a high probability period. Never. People just want it to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Other than a couple runs of the worst model there is what has shown a snow there? A single euro run? Any ggem? Did the ensemble means ever light up for that weekend? No. Weenies who love to say PD3 every year have latched onto it. First it was a weak wave around the 17th. Now that’s dead it’s a wave around the 19-20 which I guess is still technically PD if it starts Monday? That one has a bit more of a chance. Euro last night almost pulled it off but not until the 20th. It’s slower than the gfs. But either way that was never a high probability period. Never. People just want it to be. Off today, and waiting for my car to be serviced, so with time to kill looking through the 50 plus pages of this thread, what about this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Or this... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 To be fair, PSU is on record for liking the period around the 24th as far back as Jan. 31. Hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 43 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As predicted, we’re losing a lot of troops. You hate to see it. Not really .. hate to see it that is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Off today, and waiting for my car to be serviced, so with time to kill looking through the 50 plus pages of this thread, what about this.... That looks like a snowstorm look for us to you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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