Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 You guys did say that the Atlantic was warm.. in the south-central and Caribbean SSTs are where they usually are in July? Here's a 591dm High over Dominican Republic. https://ibb.co/bL6GYZQ ^That 50/50 low is a little north, and while it is a -AO, it may also be a neutral to + NAO. https://ibb.co/7z7z3FZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And I said I’m frustrated. I expected colder. Something similar to 1958 and 2010. I didn’t said I’m throwing in the towel or changing anything yet. Sometimes people overreact to every random thought I post. Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be. Perhaps correlated to low continental snow extent? Or something else also 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs. That’s what I said. Given the long wave pattern it should be colder than what guidance is snowing. That’s it. Not sure why that seems to have been controversial 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: Or something else also If you mean Babar, I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: If you mean Babar, I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there. Yea I’m not trying to argue why it’s not colder. I’m just making the observation that compared to past periods with a similar pattern the temps being shown aren’t as cold as I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I’m not trying to argue why it’s not colder. I’m just making the observation that compared to past periods with a similar pattern the temps being shown aren’t as cold as I expected. Does that include the derating you already factor in for a 2024 base state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS snow mean trending nicely... I am pretty sure the vast majority of that is the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 EURO is like a 75 mile jump south. Only really helps PSU as it stands… but still moving towards GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 This enough blocking Chuck? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Blocking still looks to peak around Feb 20. Making the PD storm unlikely unless a NS wave phases to buckle the flow. But my god I’ve never seen a signal this strong at this range before. As the block relaxes one of these pac waves will survive. A few days after the block peaks and starts to relax still makes sense. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 I’ve said since Jan I loved the sound of the 2/24/24 blizzard… well….THIS to me looks more conducive for a classic storm than anything I see before imo, but we’ll seeIt is wayyyy out there obviously . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Blocking still looks to peak around Feb 20. Making the PD storm unlikely unless a NS wave phases to buckle the flow. But my god I’ve never seen a signal this strong at this range before. As the block relaxes one of these pac waves will survive. A few days after the block peaks and starts to relax still makes sense. Ha you beat me to it. Made my post before I saw yours. Now THIS is a map I want to see hang around. There’s actually room for amplification . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’ve said since Jan I loved the sound of the 2/24/24 blizzard… well…. THIS to me looks more conducive for a classic storm than anything I see before imo, but we’ll see It is wayyyy out there obviously . Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Larry Cosgrove alludes to 'something special' possibly brewing in the Mid Atlantic associated with the blocking. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/CMQw3ZKTNKc 'In a sense, the south central, Mid-Atlantic and New England states have the chance for "something really special" in terms of precipitation amount and type.' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. 2 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I waant using the gfs. I’ve been looking at the euro control and ensemble members. They have been consistently showing underwhelming temps. A couple runs ago the euro had a storm that should have been a big snow for NC/SC but was just rain. Not even close really. And the reason the snow mean isn’t lighting up more than it is for the Feb 21-24 period is that there are quite a few perfect track rainstorms within the ensemble members. The eps h5, slp, and precip look amazing. Then the snow output looks blah. The reason is the temps. All the cold is on the other side of the pole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike. Yep Lake Tahoe March Winter Incoming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: All the cold is on the other side of the pole Seems to be the case for the past 5+ years. There is cold but not our side of the globe. Likely to change eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. Like I said almost 2 weeks ago, y'all are so welcome. You should be measuring in feet between the 22nd and Mar 6th as I'll be in CA..... You can even name them the 'notwxdude storms' or 'wxdude not here storms' if you wish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 37 minutes ago, Ji said: I prefer the FAKE punt by FSU (vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game), when they came back from a 21-3 deficit and went on to win... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 31 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I really like the period from the last full week of Feb through mid-March. We’ve scored in that time frame before. I think expectations for the lowlands should be tempered (I know you know lol), but the climo favored areas with elevation and/or latitude should be keen on watching what’s coming down the pike. It would be a bummer with the end of the month pattern not to score an all snow event for my area and @CAPE . But, I get it. Even @psuhoffman mentioned some frustrations with temps. I will remain optimistic. Hopefully things get active ( snowy ) and you can offer your valued insights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 EPS lighting up GEFS still washed out for that period, GEPS too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: EPS lighting up GEFS still washed out for that period, GEPS too GEFS seems to like a few days earlier, but there’s a signal roughly at the same time as the eps on the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 51 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s the one signal that hasn’t wavered. Been on the guidance since the Mesopotamian model was the go-to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Share the skepticism but I have to let the entire "window of opportunity" play out before I pull out Lucy....skeptical because the week of 19th seems to be slipping also and now once again looking two weeks out.... unlike Jan. Winter Week which held firm in guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Share the skepticism but I have to let the entire "window of opportunity" play out before I pull out Lucy....skeptical because the week of 19th seems to be slipping also and now once again looking two weeks out.... unlike Jan. Winter Week which held firm in guidance. When was the 19th and that week in play? If I remember correctly, there was going to be a dry period as blocking strengthens. It peaks around the 20th, and then that’s when our chances start. Nothing seems to be slipping away for me. And our 850mb climo is still -3 in late Feb, so we’re still fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range. As predicted, we’re losing a lot of troops. You hate to see it. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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