Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy

I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska.. pretty good setup

Ah, but what did the extrapolation of the 84 hour NAM show about this?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ah, but what did the extrapolation of the 84 hour NAM show about this?

I don't know.. let's pin it. 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it...

Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin'  (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri)

Why does it have to be a top 25 storm? For someone who claims to be so desperate for snow, you have some pretty damn high standards. How about being happy with something more reasonable, like a 6-10" event. Again, these advertised 'epic patterns' don't always produce a big storm. They have failure modes too.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why does it have to be a top 25 storm? For someone who claims to be so desperate for snow, you have some pretty damn high standards. How about being happy with something more reasonable, like a 6-10" event. Again, these advertised 'epic patterns' don't always produce a big storm. They have failure modes too.

Well, I already said why I'm big snow hunting this year in particular...but after my Tuesday debacle, I'm pretty sure nobody wants me to re-litigate that.

Now, please don't misunderstand me...this doesn't mean I don't appreciate a 6-10" event. That'd be good!! And I've mentioned on more than one occasion that I've learned recently to enjoy even the small ones (especially in Ninas where that's all you can muster) However, THIS year...when you have a shot, AND it's been this long without a big dog, why not root for it?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohh okay. Yeah he talked about the wave slowing down and catching up to the ns which is why I thought he was talking about PD period. Man I like that one better...besides it's a Nino and PD weekend 

Chill. It won’t even really be Pd weekend anyways. The initial wave we were tracking for over Pd weekend is gone now. Squashed to nothing. The wave of interest now wouldn’t really hit us until Tuesday after PD anyways. It might start that Monday evening if you want to count that. With the timing changes of the waves I’m no longer sure which is the one. But I was pretty sure that wave we were initially tracking for around the 18-19 wasn’t it. And sure enough that’s totally gone now. 

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Chill. It won’t even really be Pd weekend anyways. The initial wave we were tracking for over Pd weekend is gone now. Squashed to nothing. The wave of interest now wouldn’t really hit us until Tuesday after PD anyways. It might start that Monday evening if you want to count that. With the timing changes of the waves I’m no longer sure which is the one. But I was pretty sure that wave we were initially tracking for around the 18-19 wasn’t it. And sure enough that’s totally gone now. 

To support this point, I saw 3 “waves” of interest on the ensembles a couple days back. One is the feb 13-14. The other two came later but were too close together that I read it as disagreement among ensemble members. Now they seem to be consolidating into better agreement on that third wave.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it...

Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin'  (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri)

Correlation with no causation is just random chance. 
 

First of all, there is a very clear sweet spot between Feb 5 and Feb 18. That 2 week period contains an inordinate amount of our big snows. 11 of the top 25 came in that period. Obviously those 2 weeks are our best chance. But outside those 2 weeks the other 14 storms were scattered throughout the rest of the winter pretty randomly between Dec 10 and March 30. But it’s only 14 storms. And some are clustered on top of each other like a couple storms that happened mid Dec and a few in late Jan. A couple in early March. So there are naturally going to be dead zones also just by chance. 
 

There was no top 25 storm from Dec 20-Jan 6 but you don’t obsess about those weeks. No storm Jan 10-Jan 21 either. There was no storm Feb 1-4. You think that means anything?  Why is it only the last week of Feb that you obsess over and not all the other random periods we haven’t had a top snowstorm yet?  
 

Second, PD is Feb 19 this year. It’s late. All those storms ended by the 18th. The storm were tracking for Pd would start on the 19th and carry into the 20th. That’s after all those storms. We’ve never had a top storm after Feb 18. So explain why just because it’s PD that somehow makes it more likely?  Why does the weather care it’s PD.  Even if the PD3 storm hits it breaks this silly rule you’ve constructed because it’s a day after all those other storms in the dead zone. 

[Kmlwx]

@Maestrobjwa - If you're going to hone in on dates and calendars to backup your point...you should also take into account that a year isn't truly 365 days. Hence why we have leap years. So really it could be said that each year is never identical to the last - thus throwing off your calendar date patterns. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

@Maestrobjwa - If you're going to hone in on dates and calendars to backup your point...you should also take into account that a year isn't truly 365 days. Hence why we have leap years. So really it could be said that each year is never identical to the last - thus throwing off your calendar date patterns. 

Dude he is curled up on the floor in a corner babbling incoherently right now. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude he is curled up on the floor in a corner babbling incoherently right now. 

That wasn't necessary.

To simplify...It's not logical--I look at some sports things the same way. When they say "This team is 14-1 when this happens". Of course it doesn't actualy change the outcome...just a trend. Folks use these "trends" to bet because they "feel" like they have a better chance. For example...the starting a thread debate we have here every year! It has nothing to do with how a storm goes...and yet some feel that you "jinx" it by starting it too soon. It's not logical, but people think that way, lol

That's the sum total of what I feel with those dates. It's not based in logic as I stated a couple times...if I gambled I wouldn't pick the dates! But no scientific reason...and eventually (even this month) we get something on those dates and poof, trend over, ya feel better about it. But until then 

[psuhoffman]

The gfs keeps running that NS wave over the top of the PD STJ wave. We need that to either not be there or further south and phase. 

[Ji]

The gfs keeps running that NS wave over the top of the PD STJ wave. We need that to either not be there or further south and phase. 

Dumb hobby

[Ji]

Dumb hobby

No return on investment

[stormtracker]

This little shit southern GOM wave is kinda fucking things up.  GFS looks like it's try ing to tee up

[Ji]

Lost 40 inches of snow since 6z

[Ji]

Just a nasty merciless hobby

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This little shit southern GOM wave is kinda fucking things up.  GFS looks like it's try ing to tee up

I’m getting a little frustrated that temps look so marginal even during a period with extreme blocking with a monster 50/50. Case in point that’s a great setup for a Deep South snow but they aren’t close on temps. Even when the storms are suppressed they’re just rain to our south. I expected to see much more cold. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't know.. I guess the -NAO isn't strong enough. 

[Ji]

I’m getting a little frustrated that temps look so marginal even during a period with extreme blocking with a monster 50/50. Case in point that’s a great setup for a Deep South snow but they aren’t close on temps. Even when the storms are suppressed they’re just rain to our south. I expected to see much more cold. 

Let jb educate you on cahirs connection

[Ji]

They should run this stupid model only twice a week

[Ji]

Where if the 0 in nyc jb promised

[Ji]

Where is the cold and snow. Why am I seeing a zonal flow

[brooklynwx99]

jesus christ

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus christ

Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals. 

it was never going to be that cold with a Pacific trough, always just cold enough. I don't see anything that exactly points to thermal issues

[MD Snow]

Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals. 

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


.

[cbmclean]

 

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


.

Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be.  Perhaps  correlated to low continental snow extent?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


.

I waant using the gfs.  I’ve been looking at the euro control and ensemble members. They have been consistently showing underwhelming temps. A couple runs ago the euro had a storm that should have been a big snow for NC/SC but was just rain. Not even close really. And the reason the snow mean isn’t lighting up more than it is for the Feb 21-24 period is that there are quite a few perfect track rainstorms within the ensemble members. The eps h5, slp, and precip look amazing. Then the snow output looks blah. The reason is the temps. 

[psuhoffman]

And I said I’m frustrated. I expected colder. Something similar to 1958 and 2010. I didn’t said I’m throwing in the towel or changing anything yet. Sometimes people overreact to every random thought I post. 

[psuhoffman]

It snows in Mexico at elevation.