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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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29 minutes ago, Shad said:

thoughts on hour 240 of Euro?

Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240

500hv.conus.png

 

Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system.  There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it.

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240

500hv.conus.png

 

Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system.  There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it.

Yea control confirms it’s squashed everything and retrogrades the block all the way into central southern Canada. But eps looks much better. 

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59 minutes ago, Shad said:

thoughts on hour 240 of Euro?

We finally got a west-based -NAO block.. but there is a piece of the PV in NW Canada retrograding to possibly encroach on Alaska. That could fill the country with mild air.. A few days before then we have a block over Alaska, so that's a pretty big difference in a short amount of time. 

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47 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240

500hv.conus.png

 

Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system.  There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it.

Agreed, ridge too far east.

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11 minutes ago, yoda said:

Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going... but that qpf field... woof

It somehow unfathomably misses two phases and then partially catches the 3rd. Bizarre.

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeeeah sorting this out might take a bit...we won't know anything about this until...next Thursday :lol: By then we'll either be preparing to by PD3 stuff or trying to track the PSU storm!

It will all sort out and settle down by about March 20.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The past couple years since that upgrade (what was that, 2022?) the GFS has been king...of the bizarre.

 

Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good

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