Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[NorthArlington101]

Wasn't there a storm recently like this?  Like in the past 10 years or so?  Maybe 15? Not the insane amounts... but it crushed RAH to around RIC... EZF got a few inches... but once you got near DCA it was green grass.  I'm not sure if it was because of blocking... but I distinctly remember traveling up i95 and having to stop overnight in NC because the roads were so bad

Not sure how far south Dec. 2018 got but that sounds close

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast.  There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 

CMC is setting up for later

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CMC is setting up for later

Yea if you look at the better guidance than the gfs they all are way more aggressive with the blocking and thus have a further south boundary for the period. That is bad for the PD threat unless there is a phased bomb. But it sets up Feb 21-24 period nicely. 

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not sure how far south Dec. 2018 got but that sounds close

I live in Wilson NC right along I-95, (hang out here because the analysis is top notch).  December 2018 just petered out in my area.  i got 3 - 4 sloppy inches that then mostly got washed away when it changed to rain.  Just a bit west it was better.

[brooklynwx99]

love this look

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

love this look

Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it?  I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along.  I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it?  I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along.  I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?

I think there could be some phasing between 2 jet streams. Temps are an issue right now though. 

[WxUSAF]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea if you look at the better guidance than the gfs they all are way more aggressive with the blocking and thus have a further south boundary for the period. That is bad for the PD threat unless there is a phased bomb. But it sets up Feb 21-24 period nicely. 

GEFS has been consistently suppressed for the PD3 wave. 12z looks a little closer but still pretty far south and OTS.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it?  I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along.  I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?

open flow, confluence, and southern stream vorts. cold air isn't an issue with an actual storm

[brooklynwx99]

here's why I like the 24th... the Pacific trough retros and you have a big amplification signal downstream as the block decays and confluence lessens. it's a recipe for a big storm

[Shad]

Euro has some flakes nearby on the 16th as cold air pushes in

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS)..  We are already marginal for Presidents Day. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I like the PD period the best, It still looks good in the upper latitudes. The cold pattern is breaking down, maybe too fast for the 24th (on 12z GEFS)..  We are already marginal for Presidents Day. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast.  There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 

Screw it I'm rooting for the phased bomb to get a shot at PD3...come on NS! 

Actually at the end of the 12z Euro those potential NS waves are still around (this time we actually want one of those, haha)

[MD Snow]

Euro has some flakes nearby on the 16th as cold air pushes in

This disturbance has been showing on guidance on and off for a while now. Might be a way to luck into something, especially if it falls at night.


.

[Shad]

thoughts on hour 240 of Euro?

[yoda]

29 minutes ago, Shad said:

thoughts on hour 240 of Euro?

Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240

 

Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system.  There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240

 

Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system.  There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it.

Yea control confirms it’s squashed everything and retrogrades the block all the way into central southern Canada. But eps looks much better. 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS also ejects an amplifying wave for the 23rd. wild how clearly this shows up along with the PNA spike and decaying block. very favorable hemispheric look. this is the best threat IMO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

59 minutes ago, Shad said:

thoughts on hour 240 of Euro?

We finally got a west-based -NAO block.. but there is a piece of the PV in NW Canada retrograding to possibly encroach on Alaska. That could fill the country with mild air.. A few days before then we have a block over Alaska, so that's a pretty big difference in a short amount of time. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Shad said:

thoughts on hour 240 of Euro?

It's hour 240

[Wonderdog]

47 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably going to be wrong, so hopefully I will be corrected if so, but I don't think we like what h5 showed at 240

 

Ridge is not where we want it out west, in fact, it seems to be on top of the system.  There's a strong s/w crashing into CA, which is lowering the heights and pushing our ridge into the Plains instead of the Rockies where we want it.

Agreed, ridge too far east.

[thunderbolt]

31 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

It's hour 240

Thoughts on HR 300 on GFS

[yoda]

Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going... but that qpf field... woof

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks good.. we have time. Upper latitude pattern is good. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going 

Yeeeah sorting this out might take a bit...we won't know anything about this until...next Thursday  By then we'll either be preparing to by PD3 stuff or trying to track the PSU storm!

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

Presidents Day threat takes a little while to get going... but that qpf field... woof

It somehow unfathomably misses two phases and then partially catches the 3rd. Bizarre.

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeeeah sorting this out might take a bit...we won't know anything about this until...next Thursday  By then we'll either be preparing to by PD3 stuff or trying to track the PSU storm!

It will all sort out and settle down by about March 20.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It somehow unfathomably misses two phases and then partially catches the 3rd. Bizarre.

The past couple years since that upgrade (what was that, 2022?) the GFS has been king...of the bizarre.

[Terpeast]

Even closer to a phase, but looks weird. Still liking where we are now