Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[stormy]

13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How ya feeling now?

It's a mixed bag beyond the range of the ECM and GEM.   The 06Z GFS is a huge winner giving me 19 inches!!!!!!!

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, stormy said:

It's a mixed bag beyond the range of the ECM and GEM.   The 06Z GFS is a huge winner giving me 19 inches!!!!!!!

Lube up that measuring stick

[Shad]

The 6GFS is picking up on a strong High near the Canadian border.....it appears that the CMC and Euro may have it too.....this will ultimately  drive the PD storm.....if that high is as strong as advertised this should be a nice event for most of Virginia

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system  unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing.  Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.

I did but that was specific to how the gfs was getting to it yesterday with a weird unlikely progression that never developed a block at all. The one storm was unlikely to actually work and it would have meant nothing after either.
 

The latest gfs run is different. But it’s still handling the high latitudes somewhat differently than other more reliable guidance day 10-15. However the euro took a huge move towards phasing the NS and STJ for the pd threat also. Yes of that happens it could become another mega 50/50 and suppress that next wave but who cares then it would set up another threat around Feb 25 instead of Feb 21-23. We just want the wave train under the block to set up. Not worried about the specifics on individual waves yet. 

I want to see what other guidance has to say today. I don’t put much stock in the gfs when it’s alone. It’s been pretty awful lately. Frankly I give it about as much weight when it’s off on its own as I would the icon or some other obscure data point like the JMA. But the eps is honking like crazy now for one of these waves to hit us in the day 10-20 period (if you include the eps ext). But the wave specifics aren’t resolved yet. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

This just my gut talking and it's too far away to think much about, but I keep thinking the first 10 days of March will be the ripest period for the MA. Maybe active instead of big dog stuff. We'll see how it goes. March wavelengths are volatile. We generally don't go into March with a mid winter storm pattern. Good blocking years have shot their load by March. I can't think of many (or any) Marches with a mean pattern that's showing on weekly/monthly guidance. I'm curious

2018 had great Atlantic  locking but a mediocre pac due to the Nina. Shorter wavelengths mitigate the Nina central pac ridge in March which is why often if we get a snowstorm in a Nina it’s March but it’s still not ideal.  There haven’t been many ninos where the block set in this late. You have to go back to 1964 and 1958 to find a comp March Nino pattern. 

[Terpeast]

Checked guidance this morning... 

Nothing has changed. 

The waiting is the worst part. Cliche but true

[Shad]

Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run.   What a stupid hobby

[IronTy]

13 minutes ago, Shad said:

Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run.   What a stupid hobby

Isn't that pretty much what we always do?  Usually that's the only timeframe to see a storm anyway.  

[snowmagnet]

20 minutes ago, Shad said:

Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run.   What a stupid hobby

I'm glad I'm not the only one.  The waiting between runs is ridiculous.  We are a strange bunch.  I talk about this stuff at work and people look at me like I'm crazy.  They just want to know if we will have a snow day or not. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[WhiteoutMD]

13 hours ago, Solution Man said:

10 days away

Always 10 days away 

[Shad]

thoughts on GFS rolling out hour 222

[brooklynwx99]

my thought is "holy shit"

[Shad]

same

[Dabuckeyes]

Banana High there? Looks like a great setup

[brooklynwx99]

bruh

[LP08]

Oh my…

[psuhoffman]

It misses the phase. Slides the NS over the top instead of phasing in. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Even short pumped gets fringed 

[Dabuckeyes]

Exit stage right or does she come up the coast?

 

[psuhoffman]

This has huge potential if it phases. It’s not as simple as a straight Nino stj setup though so don’t expect stable solution to snow at crazy leads. 

[Shad]

thats a setup that ends up clobbering Raleigh to Richmond...of course this will change a ton over time........

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Exit stage right or does she come up the coast?

 

Once it missed the phase with the NS it was game over. The stj wave can’t gain latitude with that NS flow right over top of us. We need a phase for this to work at our latitude. It’s why I pegged the next wave as the better chance. Because by then the NS should be relaxing and maybe a stj wave can work without needed a complicated scenario.  But this has huge huge potential if it does in fact pjase. Gfs was super close. 

[psuhoffman]

Guidance hasn’t even resolved the Feb 13-14 wave yet. Were a long way from having any clarity on this one. 

[Shad]

Low still creeping off Carolina coast 18z Monday

[nj2va]

That was close to a big dog.  Just missed the phase.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Once it missed the phase with the NS it was game over. The stj wave can’t gain latitude with that NS flow right over top of us. We need a phase for this to work at our latitude. It’s why I pegged the next wave as the better chance. Because by then the NS should be relaxing and maybe a stj wave can work without needed a complicated scenario.  But this has huge huge potential if it does in fact pjase. Gfs was super close. 

This is basically the solution the gfs had yesterday and the day before with the NS running ahead and the souther steam wave running the boundary. Just a bit farther south. Southeast weenies getting a case of the vapors over this run though…

[TSG]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

bruh

We need this emoji as a standard option on here. Who's got access to that?? @stormtracker?

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is basically the solution the gfs had yesterday and the day before with the NS running ahead and the souther steam wave running the boundary. Just a bit farther south. Southeast weenies getting a case of the vapors over this run though…

The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast.  There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast.  There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 

Wasn't there a storm recently like this?  Like in the past 10 years or so?  Maybe 15? Not the insane amounts... but it crushed RAH to around RIC... EZF got a few inches... but once you got near DCA it was green grass.  I'm not sure if it was because of blocking... but I distinctly remember traveling up i95 and having to stop overnight in NC because the roads were so bad