CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, stormtracker said: I’m worried about him not making it too. We gotta prop him up. The self restraint is amazing. Holding until the Super Bowl or the happy hour like 3 days before a FOLKS storm, whichever comes first. I would have downed that sucker to numb the pain after the Ravens debacle. I managed with weed and wine. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So think our usual PD weekend MECS+ threshold would be too soon? (It's not scientific, but the fact it's never happened the last week of Feb is not something I wanna bet on, lol) Let's just let things unfold as they will, however it happens. We see the remarkable agreement across all ensembles and it has been now showing up in some ops runs more and more in the ops extended ranges. And the extended ensembles/weeklies have been pretty emphatic through the first part of March thus far. Don't worry or get caught up in specific dates or apparent times that "nothing much happened" or "PD is our time!" I mentioned this before, but remember in 2016 there was talk about how we have a relative lack of snow events the 3rd week or so of January...whether due to chance or some actual meteorological reason (traditional Jan. thaw, that sort of thing)? Then something happened Jan. 22-23, 2016...trying to put my finger on it, I recall getting some decent snow then...LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Let's just let things unfold as they will, however it happens. We see the remarkable agreement across all ensembles and it has been now showing up in some ops runs more and more in the ops extended ranges. And the extended ensembles/weeklies have been pretty emphatic through the first part of March thus far. Don't worry or get caught up in specific dates or apparent times that "nothing much happened" or "PD is our time!" I mentioned this before, but remember in 2016 there was talk about how we have a relative lack of snow events the 3rd week or so of January...whether due to chance or some actual meteorological reason (traditional Jan. thaw, that sort of thing)? Then something happened Jan. 22-23, 2016...trying to put my finger on it, I recall getting some decent snow then...LOL!!! Sounds great, and will do 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, Yeoman said: Sounds great, and will do Can always count on you to be a total sarcastic weenie. Thanks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Let's just let things unfold as they will, however it happens. We see the remarkable agreement across all ensembles and it has been now showing up in some ops runs more and more in the ops extended ranges. And the extended ensembles/weeklies have been pretty emphatic through the first part of March thus far. Don't worry or get caught up in specific dates or apparent times that "nothing much happened" or "PD is our time!" I mentioned this before, but remember in 2016 there was talk about how we have a relative lack of snow events the 3rd week or so of January...whether due to chance or some actual meteorological reason (traditional Jan. thaw, that sort of thing)? Then something happened Jan. 22-23, 2016...trying to put my finger on it, I recall getting some decent snow then...LOL!!! Oh yeah I'm not downing the potential here. Just...a little calendar superstitious that's all (of that particular week) I look down the top 25, all the MECS & HECS either came between Jan 20th and Feb 20th ...or early/mid March for some strange reason (with the exception of a legendary Palm Sunday...hey I have an Aunt old enough to remember that...gotta ask her about that ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Do better, man. Seriously. Exactly.. dig harder and you'll find some random model that shows what you want to see.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Ji said: pretty scary thought---because if we dont see a big snow or two......this hobby is pretty much done Time to dust off the crochet kit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh yeah I'm not downing the potential here. Just...a little calendar superstitious that's all. I look down the top 25 they either came between Jan 20th and Feb 20th...or early March (with the exception of a legendary Palm Sunday...hey I have an Aunt old enough to remember that...gotta ask her about that ) By my memory, the 1979 Washington Birthday storm was on the 19th, breaking a decade long HECS shortage for us. It was, however, a very cold Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 48 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: How does the Pineapple Express about to hit West Coast set up for East Coast as we go further into February. I love it Pineapple Express??? How is this a Pineapple Express when the flow is not coming from Hawaii. Look at the Water Vapor Map. This "Pineapple Express" is used for one thing especially in this case Ratings!! Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: We had a ~3 week period from Feb. 14-March 5 or so in 2015 that was absolutely amazing around here. And that followed a rather craptastic pattern at the end of January and into early February. Yet we had epic cold starting Valentine's Day that year along with several decent events. No HECS or anything, but wow, what a stretch of cold and snow! That February ended up at like a -10 departure on temperatures, even after a relatively warm first week or so. (ETA: And even the record-breaking winter 2009-10, the winter came in concentrated waves...we had 14 days of amazing winter from the end of January through mid-February, and maybe another week or so in December around the HECS that month). You are spot on!! So many are so quick to say that winter is over when March arrives. Nothing could be further from the truth!!!!!! Dear God, so many heavy snow March periods in my lifetime, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1980, 1993, 1994, 2013....... Sea level communities lose out in late March but elevation carries into the early part of April. I received 9 inches on April 7, 1971 at 1300 ft. !!!!! At 1850 ft, April 7, 1971 received 17 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I love it Pineapple Express??? How is this a Pineapple Express when the flow is not coming from Hawaii. Look at the Water Vapor Map. This "Pineapple Express" is used for one thing especially in this case Ratings!! Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather He meant the jet extension 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, stormy said: I received 9 inches on April 7, 1971 at 1300 ft. !!!!! At 1850 ft, April 7, 1971 received 17 inches... Must have been flying Air Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Must have been flying Air Randy 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Must have been flying Air Randy I was on the pavement on my back putting triple chains on a 3 ton VDOT trk. in the middle of Rt. 250 on Afton Mt. on April 7, 1971. No danger because nothing was moving with dozen of semi's jackknifed in the heavy snow. Probably 8 inches on the pavement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I’ve seen the word “hobby” thrown around as if people here do this for fun Reality is that this is a collection of people who don’t do well with not getting what we want. There are very few here who are simply interested in the weather and the science of it. Most here are after the weather they want. They come here daily hoping to get an affirmation that what they want is going to happen, or at least the needed therapy to survive the fact that they won’t. Count me in that group btw 7 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, stormy said: or 60 The local results could be similar and 1960 was an amazing late winter period, but 1958 is the better analog because it was a similar strength Nino. And you can see the similarities in the pacific to the coming pattern on the 1958 h5 composite below. compare that to 1960 which was an enso neutral year and you see while there is definitely a similar nao blocking regime and subsequent eastern trough, the pacific pattern is not as close a match. It’s not way off but it’s lacking the canonical Nino central pac low, or at the least is muted. This doesn’t mean the ground truth doesn’t end up similar but that’s why people are using 58 more than 60 as an analog. 2010 is an excellent analog to the coming pattern but obviously this is going to be displaced about 2 weeks later than 2010 which makes 1958 the best analog we have imo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I know there are those in this forum who think early March snow (i.e., first half of the month) is a waste, but we've had some really good cold shots and snows in the first part of that month. We've also had some epically cold periods in February (2007 and 2015 come to mind). Who cares if it's not something that would necessarily stay on the ground for a week or two. Really! If these current indications on the extended and weeklies are correct, we could well easily be tracking things not only the 2nd half or so of February, but also into March. I say bring it on! Screw that one of my favorite non HECS storms was the March 20 2018 storm. I’ll take snow on July 4 if that’s when I can get it. People around here who are picky about when it snows might need a smack upside the head to remind them where we live. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Expect jb to get out every analog big dog out of his bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The local results could be similar and 1960 was an amazing late winter period, but 1958 is the better analog because it was a similar strength Nino. And you can see the similarities in the pacific to the coming pattern on the 1958 h5 composite below. compare that to 1960 which was an enso neutral year and you see while there is definitely a similar nao blocking regime and subsequent eastern trough, the pacific pattern is not as close a match. It’s not way off but it’s lacking the canonical Nino central pac low, or at the least is muted. This doesn’t mean the ground truth doesn’t end up similar but that’s why people are using 58 more than 60 as an analog. 2010 is an excellent analog to the coming pattern but obviously this is going to be displaced about 2 weeks later than 2010 which makes 1958 the best analog we have imo. Many photos online from the various snow storms of 1958 in our forecast area. Rather severe for many locations. If 1958 plays out its going get nuts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, Ji said: Expect jb to get out every analog big dog out of his bag He loves the 1960's for winter storms, hurricanes, and weather patterns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 57 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LOLOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: So think our usual PD weekend MECS+ threshold would be too soon? (It's not scientific, but the fact it's never happened the last week of Feb is not something I wanna bet on, lol) The first pulse of the -nao looks to peak around Feb 16-20. Our best chances as a big storm typically come as the nao starts to relax off a peak. Also it often takes a couple waves to carve out the trough into our ideal configuration. @Bob Chill likes to post on that concept. He explains it better than me. This is all very very general pattern progression tea leaf reading here though. Don’t get hung up on it too much. I’m just laying out based on what I’m seeing now the general progression might go. And don’t fret about Feb 24 v Feb 18. I promise you Baltimores climo doesn’t significantly change in those few days. Baltimore has had numerous 10” storms in March and a 20” storm March 30. We’ve missed a couple HECS storms to our south after those dates. I promise you of the perfect setup comes along Baltimore can get a huge freaking snowstorm the last week of February and even early March. It’s simply small sample size and random chance that there hasn’t been an hecs yet during that week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: Must have been flying Air Randy What happened did you get laid off or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Expect jb to get out every analog big dog out of his bag I expect a mix of March 58 Feb 83 and 2010 but the intensity of 1993. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I expect a mix of March 58 Feb 83 and 2010 but the intensity of 1993. Don't tempt the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: Time to dust off the crochet kit I guess you’re not liking this time period Coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 WB 18Z GEFS.... this is better. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 37 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: What happened did you get laid off or something? Not yet.. you'll know I've been laid off when I start posting as much as Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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