Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Ji]

Wet signal for psu storm

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[psuhoffman]

Euro is close to setting up a phase for the PD storm. It’s digging a strong NS SW down behind the stj wave day 10. 

[Ji]

Euro is close to setting up a phase for the PD storm. It’s digging a strong NS SW down behind the stj wave day 10. 

My snow chart lit up last Night like Howard's 202 936 1212 number



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[WxUSAF]

PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros.

[Ji]

Lol I'll take the gfs pd3 solution and call it a winter!

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[Ji]

PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros.

Long duration event. Higher upside potential if a tad colder

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[Ji]

Eps

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[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS, best GFS run all winter on my birthday!!!!  ( Total, storm 1, storm 2) MADE MY DAY!!!

[dailylurker]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros.

You got digital blue? Can I get a hit, man? Come on... I need it, man. I'll suck your... never mind. 

[North Balti Zen]

Kiss.

 

the chili peppers suggested to suck your kiss…

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

You got digital blue? Can I get a hit, man? Come on... I need it, man. I'll suck your... never mind. 

Extrapolated 6z gfs looks awful for the psu storm though. Disappointing 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Extrapolated 6z gfs looks awful for the psu storm though. Disappointing 

Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system  unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing.  Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.

[Jebman]

35 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

You got digital blue? Can I get a hit, man? Come on... I need it, man. I'll suck your... never mind. 

We are getting so damn desperate,  we are in brand-new territory. 

[Bob Chill]

Found a good use for snow maps lol. Good visual here of last 7 gfs runs for vday period. Scattershot/unresolved at first but last 4 runs show a clear trend and it's caused by upper air patten trying to find any way to press down into this wave. Yea, temps are disastrous I get that but we're in a state of massive flux in the high latitudes. There is still a real opportunity. Until that vanishes it's hard for me to look beyond. This isn't a setup you can just dismiss yet imo only 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Kiss.

 

the chili peppers suggested to suck your kiss…

Just don't include that with "the socks" album cover 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system  unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing.  Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.

meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway

There's putting a cart before the horse and then there's Ralph. Worrying about a storm destroying future storm chances in a disastrous winter does not compute anywhere in my head. Might need a crtl/alt/delete or something 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway

I see it....the NS phase the gfs is doing is good here. It was @psuhoffman that noted we wanted to see that and not the gfs way it had the PD3 systems prior 3 runs (amplifying the ns to our n and flattening the flow). 

This and and the euro can work and retain the pattern moving forward. 

Perfect!

Awesome to see the ops sensing the HL blocking now and reflecting at the surface.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway

It’s part of the weenie handbook. Sacrifice storm X to get storm Y. 

Not worth entertaining another thought, though…

[brooklynwx99]

whoops meant to say that the Pacific trough off the WC will retrograde into more of a typical Aleutian low. whatevs lmao

[Bob Chill]

Analogs capturing the blocking aren't really showing much for us here in the big dept. Blizzard of 78 time period showing up but that was a dream crusher event here. But just bad breaks. Track was great it just didn't rip in time. Other than that, everything remains mixy/messy/pasty. Feb 05 and 07 storms have been showing at times.  No classics though. Been that way all year for most of the east nearly all the time. 

[CAPE]

6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad.

On the northern fringe but its frozen lol

[Blizzard of 93]

SOI continues to tank yet again with a -32 for the daily contribution.

[Chris78]

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's putting a cart before the horse and then there's Ralph. Worrying about a storm destroying future storm chances in a disastrous winter does not compute anywhere in my head. Might need a crtl/alt/delete or something 

If I could lock in the 6z gfs and call it a winter after PD3 I'm in.

A SECS then a high end MECS.  All within a weeks time. 

[Mikeymac5306]

12 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Fucking human pendulums up in here.  I'm dizzy.

Suicide by trampoline. 

Everyone was jumping last night after 18Z and hit the trampoline back up to the 0Z and 6Z runs.

Weather tracking is fun isn't it?  

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If I could lock in the 6z gfs and call it a winter after PD3 I'm in.

A SECS then a high end MECS.  All within a weeks time. 

This just my gut talking and it's too far away to think much about, but I keep thinking the first 10 days of March will be the ripest period for the MA. Maybe active instead of big dog stuff. We'll see how it goes. March wavelengths are volatile. We generally don't go into March with a mid winter storm pattern. Good blocking years have shot their load by March. I can't think of many (or any) Marches with a mean pattern that's showing on weekly/monthly guidance. I'm curious

[brooklynwx99]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad.

On the northern fringe but its frozen lol

potent signal as the Pacific trough retrogrades is still showing up. this is the best shot at a MECS IMO

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS also very good run....

[brooklynwx99]

like this is where it's at. really nice evolution here, and it makes sense

PNA ridge spike, weakening block, and southern stream vort slips underneath the flow

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system  unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing.  Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.

Don't look a gift horse.