Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the gefs is ejecting more pac energy for the threat after PD 

I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising.

[stormtracker]

Fucking human pendulums up in here.  I'm dizzy.

[Ji]

I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising.

Gefs says suppressed pd but 2 days later

[brooklynwx99]

really nice evolution, can see the Rockies ridge spike as the Pacific trough retrogrades

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out

Gotta get that XXXXX porn on my av.

[CAPE]

PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later.

nice to know that we will have multiple shots in the chamber. sign of an actual good pattern

[brooklynwx99]

with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is day 10-15 eps

 

When you average heights across 5 days, the composite often looks better than it really is. A trof axis too far west followed by cold NW mid-level flow often produces a great averaged 500mb anomaly. But that's a rain to dry scenario.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Yea I should have been more specific I laughed at the 18z GFS and I don't believe at all what it was selling.  I do not take many 18z runs "off runs" very seriously.  Looks like it went out to lunch!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

Weve been chasing 7+ days since  mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago.

 Archaic   models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling   behind all other sciences.

Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality.  This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now.  But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love  obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby 

see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring 

I'm sorry, I've read your comments on this issue for some time and just have to go into a bit of a rant here, because I deal with numerical models myself to some extent...

This has to be one of the most ignorant takes on "models" I've ever seen.  I get that you're not overly fond of numerical weather models, ensembles, etc., as I've seen you say on more than one occasion essentially that "all they do is show you every possible outcome to cover all bases..,." or whatever (and I strongly disagree with that sentiment).  Or at the least you sure leave that impression.  Whatever, and to each their own, but I think this all shows a serious lack of understanding on how modeling systems work and how they should be used/interpreted, and is an insulting slap in the face to the scientists who develop this guidance.  Doesn't matter if some posters in a weather forum like here live and die by every single ops model solution at 200+ hours, which I agree can get annoying.  But that is not a statement on numerical weather prediction itself.  One cannot be serious that weather forecasting has rapidly fallen behind other sciences due to, as you call them, "archaic models."  You cannot seriously believe that our understanding of weather systems now is worse than it was in the early or pre-modeling days.

Perhaps you're right in the end, that you should just show up in the obs threads when a storm actually does occur.  But don't criticize based upon weenieish comments that you read in here and mistake that for what numerical modelers and forecasters believe.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Fucking human pendulums up in here.  I'm dizzy.

Yup, it's almost hypnotic!!! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another variable we should consider is that we are rapidly losing this El Nino, to possibly La Nina conditions. Here's the latest subsurface map.

https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY

There is usually a direct correlation between the black box area and the N. Pacific PNA, but the SOI has been severely negative, so that may be overpowering otherwise weak indicators right now.. but eventually, I think we do need to worry about -PNA conditions developing sometime in the early Spring. Maybe even sooner.. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Another variable we should consider is that we are rapidly losing this El Nino, to possibly La Nina conditions. Here's the latest subsurface map.

https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY

There is usually a direct correlation between the black box area and the N. Pacific PNA, but the SOI has been severely negative, so that may be overpowering otherwise weak indicators right now.. but eventually, I think we do need to worry about -PNA conditions developing sometime in the early Spring. Maybe even sooner.. 

did it occur to you that most ninos fade late in winter or spring and that’s just part of the typical process. There is a lag effect. That’s why Nina’s that fade do us no good. That’s a common misconception I dispelled a couple years ago. Nina’s that faded fast during winter actually had worse Feb/March snowfall!  If the Nino fades now it won’t impact the pattern for another month or two at the earliest. 
 

ETA: the Nino in 1964 faded mid winter and by May we were in La Niña but it didn’t impact the pattern at all. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

did it occur to you that most ninos fade late in winter or spring and that’s just part of the typical process. There is a lag effect. That’s why Nina’s that fade do us no good. That’s a common misconception I dispelled a couple years ago. Nina’s that faded fast during winter actually had worse Feb/March snowfall!  If the Nino fades now it won’t impact the pattern for another month or two at the earliest. 

I would argue that there's not enough data. The daily-specific research I did of that central subsurface cold or warm pool posted a PNA-correlation, no time. I found that Strong Nino years that had negative subsurface water, were more likely to be warm and snowless with SE ridge (there weren't many if any Nina's I can think of that had warm subsurface pool, the opposite of that pattern). If you look at the PNA pattern as Pacific-North America, those Strong Nino/cold subsurface Winter's fit 2/3 variables in the -PNA index (cold West, warm East). Some like 72-73 fit 3/3 parts of the index.  I think if you had enough data you would see that there probably are differences late Winter if the Nino subsurface remains strong/neutral, or flips to a Nina-like state. 

Off the top of my head, these are the Strong Nino/negative subsurface March's: https://ibb.co/kXN8QWs

[Solution Man]

10 days away

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since there's not much activity...

Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline.  https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK

Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price:

https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf

https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW

^that's Feb NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time)

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

10 days away

LMFAO! That guy is SOOOOOOO happy to be diggin snow!

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

Weve been chasing 7+ days since  mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago.

 Archaic   models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling   behind all other sciences.

Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality.  This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now.  But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love  obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby 

see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring 

See ya for the 00Z model runs

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

10 days away

This needs to be on the emoji board here! Mods, make it happen 

[Kevin Reilly]

UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone!  

[Dabuckeyes]

Temps crashing at that point. Still in the mid 30s but rates could overcome

[Ji]

See ya for the 00Z model runs

Lol funniest thing you ever said

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[jayyy]

UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone!  

Do tell

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Do tell

Take away storm further south, cold air crashing in, temps falling to 32 in SE PA with 9-11" of snow and falling to 34 with 3-6" in Baltimore not a dumpster fire LOL

[MDScienceTeacher]

Um guys..  not sure if anyone is getting this faster.. but the GFS looks like it might go off again.. could be wrong. but that 1039 HP isnt really budging.

[Dabuckeyes]

9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Um guys..  not sure if anyone is getting this faster.. but the GFS looks like it might go off again.. could be wrong. but that 1039 HP isnt really budging.

Not enough CAD to make that work this time around

[Ji]

Gfs
Cmc

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[Dabuckeyes]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs
Cmc

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Pour North Dakota

[Ji]

Psu

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