Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run?

lol 

OP GFS has been showing dumb shit for like two weeks that the GEFS doesn’t even agree with

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is day 10-15 eps

Seriously how good of a pattern do you think we need? This is a serious question. Because sure there are some super minor things I could be hyper critical of. Sure ideally I’d move the pac trough west just a smidge.  I guess the -nao could be -3 stdv instead of just -2.  But my god that’s way more good than bad. It’s the best pattern we’ve had in many years. It’s probably a better pattern than we see at all at any time in 90% of winters. And you’re like “meh” it’s not good enough. So seriously. Do you think we’re like Atlanta now and we need like a once in 100 year pattern to get a ton of snow or something?  It’s not supposed to be this F$&@?#% hard!  

I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest.  The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will still get better in the coming days, because we still have SSW's impacting the surface +time.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS. 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

lol far too much weenie nonsense going on right now over A SINGLE 200+ hour OP run. Calm the fuck down y’all. Did we expect the GFS to hold a massive snowstorm for 200+ hours? Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles at this range.

It’ll be back and gone again by tomorrow.

This

By next weekend we're cold enough to snow per the GEFS.

Idgaf about what the GfS says 11 days out lol.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run?

I'm more worried about suppression next Weekend lol. Definitely not an OV track

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest.  The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will still get better in the coming days, because we have SSW's impacting the surface +time.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS. 

pretty weak blocking signal? really?

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we are creeping into some high latitude low pressures. Maybe somewhat over Alaska and southern Greenland/north of New Foundland, That's what been showing on a few of the recent OP runs, but we ignored it because of the ensemble means. This is not really showing right now on the averaged ensemble mean, but I've seen this cycle before it will start to get picked up in the coming days especially if they have multiple lows cutting up through the OV/Midwest.  The blocking signal has weakened, but it might not be gone totally... but this is what I was saying before when you guys were posting analog-average-means of +250+dm -NAO's. Right now on the ensemble means its a pretty weak blocking signal, and it's waning in trend, but maybe it will get better in the coming days.. I think probably not though because we have this Hadley Cell expansion/mid latitude ridge showing itself again (like last March) in the CONUS. 

Chuck, those run on sentences are insane man!

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx!

It’s a theory 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty weak blocking signal? really?

I don't think it even really does do a block.. maybe 1 closed contour. It's weak compared to some recent blocks that we have seen, especially March 2023. 

[anotherman]

Hahaha this thread is nuts.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s a theory 

You should run the data sometime, it's really educational. 10mb warmings, not coolings, are almost always followed by 500mb warmings over the N. Atlantic NAO region +time. Daily Climate Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory  The study is good November through March. 

[psuhoffman]

I said this earlier. That PD weekend storm on the gfs is not likely to happen that way. And we don’t even want it too. The gfs is all alone with a wacky progression of the Atlantic blocking. Last few runs it left it in Scandanavia and that’s why it was able to bring the PD storm up. But that’s also why it was warm and looking at the thermals those snow solutions were precarious at best. This run it slits the block and is just wackadoo in some of its wave breaking. No way it’s close to right.  Seriously pull up the N Hemisphere h5 and loop it. It’s nuts. We simply want to gfs to be wrong. Which it probably is.
 

The way we want to possibly get a PD storm is for that NS wave to be further southwest and phase in. If it’s amplifying to our north which is what the GFS did to relax the flow and get the stj to  come north, it means something’s gone horribly wrong in the whole pattern!  
 

Let’s just toss that crazy crap and assume the gfs is wrong. It was wrong with that snowstorm the last 3 runs (at least in the way it got to it) and it’s wrong now with the rainstorm. 
 

All other guidance does keep the Scandinavian block intact and retrogrades it into Greenland. All other guidance is currently suppressed for the PD threat.  

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I said this earlier. That PD weekend storm on the gfs is not likely to happen that way. And we don’t even want it too. The gfs is all alone with a wacky progression of the Atlantic blocking. Last few runs it left it in Scandanavia and that’s why it was able to bring the PD storm up. But that’s also why it was warm and looking at the thermals those snow solutions were precarious at best. This run it slits the block and is just wackadoo in some of its wave breaking. No way it’s close to right.  Seriously pull up the N Hemisphere h5 and loop it. It’s nuts. We simply want to gfs to be wrong. Which it probably is.
 

The way we want to possibly get a PD storm is for that NS wave to be further southwest and phase in. If it’s amplifying to our north which is what the GFS did to relax the flow and get the stj to  come north, it means something’s gone horribly wrong in the whole pattern!  
 

Let’s just toss that crazy crap and assume the gfs is wrong. It was wrong with that snowstorm the last 3 runs (at least in the way it got to it) and it’s wrong now with the rainstorm. 
 

All other guidance does keep the Scandinavian block intact and retrogrades it into Greenland. All other guidance is currently suppressed for the PD threat.  

GEFS looks like this. the OP is out to lunch 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Hahaha this thread is nuts.

We really need more posts with h5 anomaly maps. I have no idea what the upcoming pattern is supposed going to look like.

Heard something about a missing -NAO?

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think it even really does do a block.. maybe 1 closed contour. It's weak compared to some recent blocks that we have seen, especially March 2023. 

It’s an ensemble at day 10-15. It’s not going to have a ton of closed contours 

[anotherman]

We really need more posts with h5 anomaly maps. I have no idea what the upcoming pattern is supposed going to look like.
Heard something about a missing -NAO?

It’s like mom and dad left for a bit and the house was ransacked and burnt down.

[WEATHER53]

48 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Shhhh…..it’s the storm after the storm after the storm.

 

Weve been chasing 7+ days since  mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago.

 Archaic   models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling   behind all other sciences.

Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality.  This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now.  But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love  obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby 

see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s an ensemble at day 10-15. It’s not going to have a ton of closed contours 

The 18z OP GFS never closes off a block.. except one over England. 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe that op run PD cutter will move the suppression needle on the 18z GEFS.

Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward.

[brooklynwx99]

this is a highly anomalous blocking signal... we're talking 250-350m anomalies at like 13 days out

[Stormchaserchuck1]

When IAD posted the 80 degree January day, the rolled forward analogs of similar occurrances at +17-20 days showed a -150dm +AO signal... At the time, there was a lot of LR data showing the opposite, but the ground truth has proven advantage over LR models a lot of times... it seems like they are heavily weighing ENSO climo, when it has been obvious that we've been having these mid-latitude/Hadley Cell high pressure problems for a few Winters now.  I like to look outside, look at the clouds, and sort of make a LR assessment going forward. It did look like we were in a "calm before the storm" pattern the last few days..

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 18z OP GFS never closes off a block.. except one over England. 

The op gfs is likely wrong. It’s all alone. And it’s a garbage model. It’s scoring worse than the Euro, ggem, Ukmet and even the icon last I saw!  But ok if you’re basing this off the op gfs then yes it’s a garbage pattern. The op gfs never develops the block. But I’m doing what you should when the gfs has no support. Disregarding it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The op gfs is likely wrong. It’s all alone. And it’s a garbage model. It’s scoring worse than the Euro, ggem, Ukmet and even the icon last I saw!  But ok if you’re basing this off the op gfs then yes it’s a garbage pattern. The op gfs never develops the block. But I’m doing what you should when the gfs has no support. Disregarding it. 

3-4 days ago, OP models were showing P-type problems with the PD storm, when the upper latitude pattern on the ensembles has been near perfect!  Since then, the ensembles have come in a little bit weaker with the blocking pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

3-4 days ago, OP models were showing P-type problems with the P-Day storm, when the upper latitude pattern on the ensembles has been near perfect!

Everything except the op gfs is suppressing the PD event. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Everything except the op gfs is suppressing the PD event. 

It's showed a hit 4 straight runs (00z-18z).

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Everything except the op gfs is suppressing the PD event. 

Hey maybe chucks definition of p type problems includes no precip … it wouldn’t surprise me 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward.

But the gefs is ejecting more pac energy for the threat after PD 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The op gfs is likely wrong. It’s all alone. And it’s a garbage model. It’s scoring worse than the Euro, ggem, Ukmet and even the icon last I saw!  But ok if you’re basing this off the op gfs then yes it’s a garbage pattern. The op gfs never develops the block. But I’m doing what you should when the gfs has no support. Disregarding it. 

"weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's showed a hit 4 straight runs (00z-18z).

Only the op gfs.  I mostly disregard the op gfs. It’s fun to look at but it’s total complete garbage  

[psuhoffman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

"weak blocking pattern" lol literally a pristine 2 sigma block over the Davis Strait at 300 hours out

It seems he is basing his points solely on the op gfs 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

I'll take this at 270.  3 consecutive runs.    At 240 the GFS, ECM and GEM all have the goods brewing in the NW  Gulf and S. Texas.    It's a SLAM DUNK  with all 3 on board at 240.  Rather unusual.                       

 

How ya feeling now?