Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 11 minutes ago, frd said: Extended period of late Winter on the way. I'm not really impressed right now.. we seem to be in a Hadley Cell expansion/mid-latitude High pressure regime that is holding through all of this tendency toward blocking that we are/have been heading into. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Umm March 12th 1993 it was 62f before we got whacked! PHL picked up 13" of now and 4" of sleet with a rainbow at the end. It started snowing at 11 pm at 42f. What we need is dynamics. ‘93 was a triple phaser definitely had some dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 1 hour ago, stormy said: It's a SLAM DUNK with all 3 on board at 240. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: EPS seems to like Post PD more than PD. Feb 21-22. The PSU storm If memory serves, the first PSU storm was Dec 26 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: looks like it would of been suppressed Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Hmmm Feb 2010 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy crap please dont use that terminology unless its a snow map or a precip map...you really got me excited for a second until i saw the chart 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 7 minutes ago, frd said: Hmmm Feb 2010 Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx! https://eos.org/features/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affects-the-whole-atmosphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off. I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after. Not totally sure why. I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections. Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on. I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Well…let’s all hope the gfs isn’t on to something. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Omg the cold pattern that's not that cold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Omg the cold pattern that's not that cold. Shhhh…..it’s the storm after the storm after the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Well…let’s all hope the gfs isn’t on to something. . I thought we wanted a Memphis-Chicago storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 I mean.. we have a block over Alaska. But we lost the NAO, I knew this would be a wild card.. it's been so hard for us to have multiple -NAO's since 2013, either that or they are associated with a SE ridge lately. and the +PNA is much weaker. Look at that High in the SW Pacific. https://ibb.co/CBMrnpV 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off. I hear ya! The 240 big 3 were close in the NW Gulf at 12z and the extended GFS op produced with support from the GEFS. The 18 GFS has went to crap in the OV. The Weeklies still look good Feb 21 - Mar. 20 and the potentially suppressive block has diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Ugly GfS run i will pretend I never saw. Atmospheric river 2.0 hits California. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 12 days to go until the 18z GFS op run PD cutter that won't verify, and Chuck's lost -NAO. Some here definitely aren't going to make it. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ugly GfS run i will pretend I never saw. Atmospheric river 2.0 hits California. Wow, a 1057 mb High over Eastern Canada and rain here . i will call it an OP at range and its the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Maybe that op run PD cutter will move the suppression needle on the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 18Z GFS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 18z GFS wow! What -NAO LOL... What a dumpster fire! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Ugly GfS run i will pretend I never saw. Atmospheric river 2.0 hits California. California will get the ARKStorm before we see a MECS ever again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 18z GFS wow! What -NAO LOL... What a dumpster fire! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm not really impressed right now.. we seem to be in a Hadley Cell expansion/mid-latitude High pressure regime that is holding through all of this tendency toward blocking that we are/have been heading into. This is day 10-15 eps Seriously how good of a pattern do you think we need? This is a serious question. Because sure there are some super minor things I could be hyper critical of. Sure ideally I’d move the pac trough west just a smidge. I guess the -nao could be -3 stdv instead of just -2. But my god that’s way more good than bad. It’s the best pattern we’ve had in many years. It’s probably a better pattern than we see at all at any time in 90% of winters. And you’re like “meh” it’s not good enough. So seriously. Do you think we’re like Atlanta now and we need like a once in 100 year pattern to get a ton of snow or something? It’s not supposed to be this F$&@?#% hard! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 lol far too much weenie nonsense going on right now over A SINGLE 200+ hour OP run. Calm the fuck down y’all. Did we expect the GFS to hold a massive snowstorm for 200+ hours? Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles at this range. It’ll be back and gone again by tomorrow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Time for a south trend baby 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 WB 12Z EPS. My concern is still suppression. Cold looks like it gets established but it is dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now