Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[psuhoffman]

The gfs has temp issues because it doesn’t retrograde the Scandinavian block into the nao as much and instead keep rotating NS systems to our north.  If that’s correct we would have issues but I’m not taking a model that’s running in last place in verification scores. You know how we joke about the icon. I saw a chart a couple months ago where the gfs was running below the icon!  

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs has temp issues because it doesn’t retrograde the Scandinavian block into the nao as much and instead keep rotating NS systems to our north.  If that’s correct we would have issues but I’m not taking a model that’s running in last place in verification scores. You know how we joke about the icon. I saw a chart a couple months ago where the gfs was running below the icon!  

So in general are you optimistic on the period 2/19?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So in general are you optimistic on the period 2/19?

I still think around the 22-24 is the best chance. But the 20th has more of a chance with the slightly less suppressive trend lately. 

[North Balti Zen]

I mean, the scenario where it bombs out and blankets interior New England is of interest to make the arrival of cold air here after easier IMO.  Could be I am talking out of my hindquarters, but...still. 

[Yeoman]

30 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous.  First, it's 200+ hours out!  Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after.  The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this.  Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length.

And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on!  The one I remember best was March 5, 2015.  That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm.  In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning.  And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)!

I think that was actually Zwyts.. regardless, a tremendous call, indeed!

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, EHoffman said:

Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation.  That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC.  I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff.  That's what we need.  But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle.

Never change! 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too

[Terpeast]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too

I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on)

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on)

that third one as the Pacific trough retrogrades, the block weakens, and the PNA rises looks very legit. it's actually the same general process as 2016

[Chris78]

Just looping the 24 hour precip panels on the Gefs it looks like we have southern stream waves on the 18/19, again on the 21st then another on the 23/24.

Maybe there's only 2 waves with timing differences but it looks like 3.  That's 3 chances in about 6 days to score something. 850s and 2m temps are below average during that stretch. 

Just need patience for a little longer.....

Eta- @brooklynwx99  and @Terpeast ninjaed me while I was typing.

But hey atleast I am seeing the same thing as 2 red taggers lol.

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on)

whats the 2nd lol? i think its PD3 and then PD 3.7....if PD3 is the real big dog...that probably hampers PD3.7

 

what is PD3.7?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

"It was in the 40's at 1 PM the day before that digital blue! Torch! Horrible setup!" 

Umm March 12th 1993 it was 62f before we got whacked!  PHL picked up 13" of now and 4" of sleet with a rainbow at the end.

It started snowing at 11 pm at 42f.

 

What we need is dynamics.

[Shad]

thats a nice look on the Euro at the end of the run

[Maestrobjwa]

Euro looked like it was trying to load up at the end of it (ah c'mon one more frame ) You know, even for fantasy range, guidance has been rather consistent in developing a juicy wave in the ss. Other details have jumped around, of course, but that thing has been on all the gfs fantasy runs the last several days...and now it's popped up on the Euro the last couple runs. With things being less suppressive like @psuhoffman said becomes a trendN uh...hm? (Only one m so as not to copyright infringe Bob Chill)

[stormy]

I'll take this at 270.  3 consecutive runs.    At 240 the GFS, ECM and GEM all have the goods brewing in the NW  Gulf and S. Texas.    It's a SLAM DUNK  with all 3 on board at 240.  Rather unusual.                       

 

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Euro looked like it was trying to load up at the end of it (ah c'mon one more frame ) You know, even for fantasy range, guidance has been rather consistent in developing a juicy wave in the ss. Other details have jumped around, of course, but that thing has been on all the gfs fantasy runs the last several days...and now it's popped up on the Euro the last couple runs. With things being less suppressive like @psuhoffman said becomes a trendN uh...hm? (Only one m so as not to copyright infringe Bob Chill)

looks like it would of been suppressed

[Jebman]

Hey Ji! Digital blue! Digital blue!

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like it would of been suppressed

Eh...hard to tell. Thought the wave was less squashed than 0z, at least.

[midatlanticweather]

16 minutes ago, stormy said:

I'll take this at 270.  3 consecutive runs.    At 240 the GFS, ECM and GEM all have the goods brewing in the NW  Gulf and S. Texas.    It's a SLAM DUNK  with all 3 on board at 240.  Rather unusual.                       

 

You made a classic blunder. The first and most important is to never start a land war in Asia. The second, somewhat less known but equally as important, is never trust weather models showing snow in the Mid Atlantic until you see it on radar at your doorstep or out your window. 

 

[Steve25]

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. 

Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? 

[IronTy]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. 

I think that's basically what JB was alluding to earlier this morning.  

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

You made a classic blunder. The first and most important is to never start a land war in Asia. The second, somewhat less know but equally as important, is never trust weather models showing snow in the Mid Atlantic until you see it on radar at your doorstep or out your window. 

 

 

Yea man!  I have even seen radar fail because the scan is about 12,000 ft. over Augusta. Radar has indicated snow for hours that all evaporated before reaching the surface. That virga can be a beast out here!

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? 

You could be in the dough with that bet.

[Ji]

EPS seems to like Post PD more than PD. Feb 21-22. The PSU storm

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? 

Yeah, the runs were more suppressed before when models had more +PNA and -NAO. The +PNA has -0.3 correlation to precip, and -NAO has -0.4 correlation to precip, so you're right about that, but they both have +low pressure on the coast-correlation. I was hoping for a blizzard lol

[brooklynwx99]

holy crap

[frd]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

 

Extended period of late Winter on the way. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

There is an average +15 day lag late February to March, so that 10mb warming would favor -NAO conditions (about 2/3 times) March 5-15.. maybe longer if the graph says longer, but it just had +zonal wind in the long range a few days ago, now it's opposite, so we'll see. In mid-late March the downwell time on average +10 days. 

This 10mb warming is what usually happens in Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO Winter's. 

[psuhoffman]

@stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off.