Interstate Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS.... Maybe we will get the same luck as 1979. https://ktvo.com/sports/teams/the-snowstorm-that-changed-nascar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's what I was saying...i don't know where he got that from. But it's really not worth micro analyzing this far out if the PD storm is too warm for snow......you will end up suspending me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 if the PD storm is too warm for snow......you will end up suspending me. dynamic cooling will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 *Models show legitimate cold airmass but no snow* WHERE IS THE DIGITAL BLUE!? ITS OVER! *Models show snow* WHERE IS THE COLD AIR!? ITS OVER! Some of yall really need to take the PSU approach right now and see that the overall pattern becomes much more favorable from the 15th on forward, and focus on the details once we get closer. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Rates rates rates is the name of the game around here once we get past mid-Feb. Temps are gonna be marginal no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Rates rates rates is the name of the game around here once we get past mid-Feb. Temps are gonna be marginal no matter how you slice it. Temps won't always be marginal later in the season. There's an impressive cold push at this time, so as long as the timing is decent it's going to snow and then it'll get cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Steve25 said: *Models show legitimate cold airmass but no snow* WHERE IS THE DIGITAL BLUE!? ITS OVER! *Models show snow* WHERE IS THE COLD AIR!? ITS OVER! Some of yall really need to take the PSU approach right now and see that the overall pattern becomes much more favorable from the 15th on forward, and focus on the details once we get closer. I think my favorite oddball takes are from the people who check in here like once a week and then make "all hope is lost" posts when things don't look the exact same as they did 7 days ago The GFS has me excited. Solid chances are coming and that's all we can ask for rn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: Temps won't always be marginal later in the season. There's an impressive cold push at this time, so as long as the timing is decent it's going to snow and then it'll get cold. Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation. That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC. I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff. That's what we need. But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 this is no joke 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this is no joke -epo and 50/50. Temps the least of my worries 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Board - "WE WANT DIGITAL BLUE" GFS - ok, here you go, three times in a row Board - "NOT LIKE THAT" 1 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Board - "WE WANT DIGITAL BLUE" GFS - ok, here you go, three times in a row Board - "NOT LIKE THAT" "It was in the 40's at 1 PM the day before that digital blue! Torch! Horrible setup!" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 20 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation. That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC. I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff. That's what we need. But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle. Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late. The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous. First, it's 200+ hours out! Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after. The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this. Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length. And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on! The one I remember best was March 5, 2015. That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm. In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning. And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is no joke 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: -epo and 50/50. Temps the least of my worries If I want to be super picky the one thing I don’t like is that the NS wants to dive in right on top of us it seems. Further west and it could phase in. East and it’s out of the way. But if NS waves keep diving into the lakes it’s more complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The gfs has temp issues because it doesn’t retrograde the Scandinavian block into the nao as much and instead keep rotating NS systems to our north. If that’s correct we would have issues but I’m not taking a model that’s running in last place in verification scores. You know how we joke about the icon. I saw a chart a couple months ago where the gfs was running below the icon! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs has temp issues because it doesn’t retrograde the Scandinavian block into the nao as much and instead keep rotating NS systems to our north. If that’s correct we would have issues but I’m not taking a model that’s running in last place in verification scores. You know how we joke about the icon. I saw a chart a couple months ago where the gfs was running below the icon! So in general are you optimistic on the period 2/19? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So in general are you optimistic on the period 2/19? I still think around the 22-24 is the best chance. But the 20th has more of a chance with the slightly less suppressive trend lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I mean, the scenario where it bombs out and blankets interior New England is of interest to make the arrival of cold air here after easier IMO. Could be I am talking out of my hindquarters, but...still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 30 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous. First, it's 200+ hours out! Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after. The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this. Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length. And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on! The one I remember best was March 5, 2015. That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm. In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning. And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)! I think that was actually Zwyts.. regardless, a tremendous call, indeed! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, EHoffman said: Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation. That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC. I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff. That's what we need. But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle. Never change! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Terpeast said: I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on) that third one as the Pacific trough retrogrades, the block weakens, and the PNA rises looks very legit. it's actually the same general process as 2016 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just looping the 24 hour precip panels on the Gefs it looks like we have southern stream waves on the 18/19, again on the 21st then another on the 23/24. Maybe there's only 2 waves with timing differences but it looks like 3. That's 3 chances in about 6 days to score something. 850s and 2m temps are below average during that stretch. Just need patience for a little longer..... Eta- @brooklynwx99 and @Terpeast ninjaed me while I was typing. But hey atleast I am seeing the same thing as 2 red taggers lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on) whats the 2nd lol? i think its PD3 and then PD 3.7....if PD3 is the real big dog...that probably hampers PD3.7 what is PD3.7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Steve25 said: "It was in the 40's at 1 PM the day before that digital blue! Torch! Horrible setup!" Umm March 12th 1993 it was 62f before we got whacked! PHL picked up 13" of now and 4" of sleet with a rainbow at the end. It started snowing at 11 pm at 42f. What we need is dynamics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 thats a nice look on the Euro at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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