Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[SnowGolfBro]

29 minutes ago, Shad said:

Wow thats a big dog on the GFS for central VA   2 runs in a row

The big dogs get sniffed out early! 

[adelphi_sky]

I'm seeing FOLKS in the thread. Somethin's up. 

[IronTy]

Well JB just posted up that he doesn't like the weakening block and the highs heading over Siberia on the latest runs. That's about as good of a contrarian signal as we can ask for - lock it in.  

[blizzardmeiser]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Well JB just posted up that he doesn't like the weakening block and the highs heading over Siberia on the latest runs. That's about as good of a contrarian signal as we can ask for - lock it in.  

Is that more the longer game?  Into deep March?  He's usually bullish. 

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Is that more the longer game?  Into deep March?  He's usually bullish. 

No that was off the euro weeklies into third week of Feb.   

 

Eta, he still likes the pattern and just a couple hours earlier posted up about 2010 similarities...so he's got his bases covered.  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm seeing FOLKS in the thread. Somethin's up. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe he meant "folks" in the literal sense? Like "active users" or something? I dunno 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS....i

[Wxdood]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS....

Shew...

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS....

Is that three in a row? That’s some damn impressive consistency. Especially for a window that the LR models have keyed on for 3 weeks? At least?

Ultimate “big ones lock in at range” vibes... pretty colors below

[stormtracker]

Yeah, GFS won't let go of PD storm

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, GFS won't let go of PD storm

Verbatim it obviously works out OK but it is mildly concerning we still start the storm with surface temps too warm. I know people have recently been pushing late Feb as the time when things really get established, but I don't like not being cold enough by the 18th. Might not be important tho

[Ji]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

folks what---we dont even have cold air in place before the storm

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

folks what---we dont even have cold air in place before the storm

That's what I was saying...i don't know where he got that from.   But it's really not worth micro analyzing this far out

[Interstate]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS....

Maybe we will get the same luck as 1979.

 

https://ktvo.com/sports/teams/the-snowstorm-that-changed-nascar

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's what I was saying...i don't know where he got that from.   But it's really not worth micro analyzing this far out

if the PD storm is too warm for snow......you will end up suspending me. 

[NorthArlington101]

if the PD storm is too warm for snow......you will end up suspending me. 

dynamic cooling will save us

[Steve25]

*Models show legitimate cold airmass but no snow* 

WHERE IS THE DIGITAL BLUE!? ITS OVER! 

*Models show snow*

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR!? ITS OVER! 

Some of yall really need to take the PSU approach right now and see that the overall pattern becomes much more favorable from the 15th on forward, and focus on the details once we get closer. 

[EHoffman]

Rates rates rates is the name of the game around here once we get past mid-Feb.  Temps are gonna be marginal no matter how you slice it.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Rates rates rates is the name of the game around here once we get past mid-Feb.  Temps are gonna be marginal no matter how you slice it.

Temps won't always be marginal later in the season. There's an impressive cold push at this time, so as long as the timing is decent it's going to snow and then it'll get cold.

[TSG]

5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

*Models show legitimate cold airmass but no snow* 

WHERE IS THE DIGITAL BLUE!? ITS OVER! 

*Models show snow*

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR!? ITS OVER! 

Some of yall really need to take the PSU approach right now and see that the overall pattern becomes much more favorable from the 15th on forward, and focus on the details once we get closer. 

I think my favorite oddball takes are from the people who check in here like once a week and then make "all hope is lost" posts when things don't look the exact same as they did 7 days ago  

The GFS has me excited. Solid chances are coming and that's all we can ask for rn.

[EHoffman]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Temps won't always be marginal later in the season. There's an impressive cold push at this time, so as long as the timing is decent it's going to snow and then it'll get cold.

Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation.  That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC.  I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff.  That's what we need.  But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle.

[brooklynwx99]

this is no joke

[Terpeast]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is no joke

-epo and 50/50. Temps the least of my worries

[North Balti Zen]

Board - "WE WANT DIGITAL BLUE"

GFS - ok, here you go, three times in a row

Board - "NOT LIKE THAT"

[Steve25]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Board - "WE WANT DIGITAL BLUE"

GFS - ok, here you go, three times in a row

Board - "NOT LIKE THAT"

"It was in the 40's at 1 PM the day before that digital blue! Torch! Horrible setup!" 

[osfan24]

20 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation.  That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC.  I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff.  That's what we need.  But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle.

Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late.

[brooklynwx99]

looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late.

The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous.  First, it's 200+ hours out!  Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after.  The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this.  Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length.

And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on!  The one I remember best was March 5, 2015.  That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm.  In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning.  And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)!

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is no joke

 

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

-epo and 50/50. Temps the least of my worries

If I want to be super picky the one thing I don’t like is that the NS wants to dive in right on top of us it seems. Further west and it could phase in. East and it’s out of the way. But if NS waves keep diving into the lakes it’s more complicated.