Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually.  Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. 
 

That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these!  And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit.  Throw is maybe on or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. 

TLDR version: we don’t know what’s going to happen thru mid March.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS was a step back from 12Z.  No pictures since it will send everyone into a conniption.

Congratulations 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS was a step back from 12Z for next week.  No pictures since it will send everyone into a conniption.

For most it won't. I promise.

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

TLDR version: we don’t know what’s going to happen thru mid March.

If you didn’t read it then how did you know what it was about?  

[DarkSharkWX]

the quick transition from fast MJO waves to slow moving ones due to +IOD collapse is crazy lmao, should work out for us once we make it into 8/1/2

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually.  Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. 
 

That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these!  And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit.  Throw in maybe one or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. 

The big difference between now and 50 years ago is that 50 years we didn't have a clue to what your saying.  Nobody did.   We only knew that sometimes in winter it snowed and sometimes a lot.

Other times, folks generally said, hey! we're lucky to have an easy winter this year.   

[frd]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7.

You are not concerned with the anomalously displaced STJ ?  You anticipate this to change later in the month?        

I am thinking the massive - SOI tanking changes things up later. Just wondering .  

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

This upcoming three to five week period to me, even tops 2009-2010 in terms of potential. And it's easy to tell that the the gifted ones on this board can sense that something out of the ordinary is headed our way. Time to strap in people. 

We. Have. A. WINNAH.

Something historic this way comes.

Award me a quadrillion hotdogs if you wish FOLKS but it's coming.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

You are not concerned with the anomalously displaced STJ ?  You anticipate this to change later in the month?        

I am thinking the massive - SOI tanking changes things up later. Just wondering .  

It’s not going to be suppressed for 3 weeks 

[MDScienceTeacher]

48 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I liked that run better than 12z.  Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms.  

I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back.

The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. 

I am interested again. 

 

Me too.  The last time we saw a progression like this I think it was Commutamageddon (Jan 2011).  Ground temp were really warm leading up to the event too, but the developing upper level low pulled in so much cold air that the streets caved in about 10 minutes after start time.  There is a lot of cold air aloft to work with.. I am hoping this one trends in the right direction.

[IronTy]

48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

WxBell can unfortunately only pull soundings to 90... but looking at the temp profile by 153 the metro is OK. Surface temps too warm... but the profile doesn't look that much different there than anywhere else. Heavy snow that struggles to stick most likely

How do you get them?  I've been bitching that WB doesn't have soundings for years now and all this time there's been a way to get them?

[frd]

 

[IronTy]

It is coming>>>> "FOLKS"

No doubt

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thread. Done 

 

[winter_warlock]

Sterling mentions  wintry precip possibilities.... 

 

Some of the ensembles have
wintry precipitation funneling into the area late Monday night into
early Tuesday. Given the synoptic pattern, it will take a
strengthening cold air blast to be settled into the area ahead or
along the precipitation shield. We will continue to monitor this
system over the next several days. A cooling pattern will likely
take place shortly after this event.

[NorthArlington101]

How do you get them?  I've been bitching that WB doesn't have soundings for years now and all this time there's been a way to get them?

It’s under “charts” on the main page: https://maps.weatherbell.com/

[CAPE]

Improvement over 12z. Decent signal at this range.

[IronTy]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s under “charts” on the main page: https://maps.weatherbell.com/

How have I missed that for literally years now!?  Thank you!

[Heisy]

18z control improved on 12z. Less compressed flow. Has the same evolution (different than GFS camp)

This looks like it was gonna work…




.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thread. Done 

 

I thought threads were for real chances. I mean we are over a week away. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I thought threads were for real chances. I mean we are over a week away. 

We need enough time to shut down this one and start a new one lol

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z control improved on 12z. Less compressed flow. Has the same evolution (different than GFS camp)

This looks like it was gonna work…




.

Looks like maybe 12 hours or so later than GFS?

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

We need enough time to shut down this one and start a new one lol

This

[Heisy]

I thought someone said the control run is the EURO at lower resolution but will soon be taking over as the main EURO models at a higher resolution.

The control has always been the OP run at slightly lower resolution. Next year we won’t have an OP we will be relying on the EPS and control

As for the GFS and temps. Who cares? It has a completely different evolution than the euro so until that’s settled it doesn’t matter.

This looks like it may have ended up phasing with the second NS piece as well. See what happens at 00z


.

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended looks good 7 day period ending 26th.

[Heisy]

Looks like maybe 12 hours or so later than GFS?

Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally.


.

[DarkSharkWX]

GEFS looked amazing for the end of run, aleutian low redeveloping with rockies ridging with very favorable atlantic

would fit in nicely for the 22nd-24th timeframe 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally.


.

Not sure which is better for us. The Euro would be colder but we risk it not coming north enough. 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah jettison this 'threat' from this thread. Detracting from all the fapping over epic h5 looks.

February 20 - March 20, 2024: The Fappening.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

We need enough time to shut down this one and start a new one lol

This made me laugh way more than it should have.