Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th? The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I liked that run better than 12z. Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms. I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back. The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. I am interested again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Hahaha! Bizarre Pivotal snow map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 40 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: This upcoming three to five week period to me, even tops 2009-2010 in terms of potential. And it's easy to tell that the the gifted ones on this board can sense that something out of the ordinary is headed our way. Time to strap in people. It is coming>>>> "FOLKS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Who’s starting the thread that ultimately will get shut down? Yeah jettison this 'threat' from this thread. Detracting from all the fapping over epic h5 looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Hahaha! Bizarre Pivotal snow map! trippy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th? The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us. I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol Although it appeared to be a little closer to phasing this time...or I could be looking at it wrong. Not worth detailed analysis at this range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol Maybe it was something soon after that, the thing that ended right at 384h, where PSU and others said it was an absolutely near-perfect setup, etc., but that the GFS "found" the one way to make it fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I got pulled into work after 5 (how dare they) but I was able to see the panel below and figured we got slammed. Almost dropped a between calls. Room for improvement on temps but that's sweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yesterday’s temp profile was more promising. This looks like white rain unless you’re west of 81. Plenty of time to improve though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I thought someone said the control run is the EURO at lower resolution but will soon be taking over as the main EURO models at a higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Yesterday’s temp profile was more promising. This looks like white rain unless you’re west of 81. Plenty of time to improve though. WxBell can unfortunately only pull soundings to 90... but looking at the temp profile by 153 the metro is OK. Surface temps too warm... but the profile doesn't look that much different there than anywhere else. Heavy snow that struggles to stick most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I thought someone said the control run is the EURO at lower resolution but will soon be taking over as the main EURO models at a higher resolution. They did. You gonna drop one from 48 hours ago this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually. Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these! And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit. Throw in maybe one or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. 24 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 WB 18Z GEFS was a step back from 12Z for next week. No pictures since it will send everyone into a conniption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Still a fair amount of spread in location and timing. I'm afraid we just can't know at this time. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually. Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these! And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit. Throw is maybe on or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. TLDR version: we don’t know what’s going to happen thru mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS was a step back from 12Z. No pictures since it will send everyone into a conniption. Congratulations 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS was a step back from 12Z for next week. No pictures since it will send everyone into a conniption. For most it won't. I promise. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: TLDR version: we don’t know what’s going to happen thru mid March. If you didn’t read it then how did you know what it was about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 the quick transition from fast MJO waves to slow moving ones due to +IOD collapse is crazy lmao, should work out for us once we make it into 8/1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually. Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these! And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit. Throw in maybe one or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. The big difference between now and 50 years ago is that 50 years we didn't have a clue to what your saying. Nobody did. We only knew that sometimes in winter it snowed and sometimes a lot. Other times, folks generally said, hey! we're lucky to have an easy winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. You are not concerned with the anomalously displaced STJ ? You anticipate this to change later in the month? I am thinking the massive - SOI tanking changes things up later. Just wondering . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: This upcoming three to five week period to me, even tops 2009-2010 in terms of potential. And it's easy to tell that the the gifted ones on this board can sense that something out of the ordinary is headed our way. Time to strap in people. We. Have. A. WINNAH. Something historic this way comes. Award me a quadrillion hotdogs if you wish FOLKS but it's coming. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, frd said: You are not concerned with the anomalously displaced STJ ? You anticipate this to change later in the month? I am thinking the massive - SOI tanking changes things up later. Just wondering . It’s not going to be suppressed for 3 weeks 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 48 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I liked that run better than 12z. Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms. I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back. The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. I am interested again. Me too. The last time we saw a progression like this I think it was Commutamageddon (Jan 2011). Ground temp were really warm leading up to the event too, but the developing upper level low pulled in so much cold air that the streets caved in about 10 minutes after start time. There is a lot of cold air aloft to work with.. I am hoping this one trends in the right direction. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell can unfortunately only pull soundings to 90... but looking at the temp profile by 153 the metro is OK. Surface temps too warm... but the profile doesn't look that much different there than anywhere else. Heavy snow that struggles to stick most likely How do you get them? I've been bitching that WB doesn't have soundings for years now and all this time there's been a way to get them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 It is coming>>>> "FOLKS"No doubtSent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Thread. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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