Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[stormtracker]

Again, I don’t have high expectations and I’m not vested but this is a sleeper/bonus and I’m here for it. I mean technically we are tracking something before the good times so that’s a plus. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

850 zero line looks OK, but man, that surface freezing line!  Still, not that bad a place to be at this point for an event that's kind of a "bonus".

Yeah the surface is ugly on that panel. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Again, I don’t have high expectations and I’m not vested but this is a sleeper/bonus and I’m here for it. I mean technically we are tracking something before the good times so that’s a plus. 

Very true...bonus for sure.  Just a couple of days ago, this was essentially not worth the time.

[Solution Man]

This is moving in the right direction 

[CAPE]

No debbing about this (looking at you WW)

This was a good run on top of the 12z Euro. Similar idea.

[CAPE]

WB is fucked up.

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

No debbing about this (looking at you WW)

This was a good run on top of the 12z Euro. Similar idea.

There will be 98 ensembles that would show a hit and he’d post the two that didn’t and focus on that.  That’s our WW. One plus is that he did contribute gahooee into my lexicon. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

This is moving in the right direction 

If past precedence is any indicator, it’s moving right toward a cliff. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

WB is fucked up.

As we both will be if the models show a hit tomm evening. 

[Heisy]

We’re probably another 24 hours or so of figuring out which progression wins out. Not sure which I prefer honestly. Perfect world to me is a euro progression and a phase with 2nd N/S piece vs GFS where yea you’ll have a stronger storm but there’s no lead wave to reinforce colder temps




.

[nw baltimore wx]

Who’s starting the thread that ultimately will get shut down?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As we both will be if the models show a hit tomm evening. 

What's the status of that 120?

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What's the status of that 120?

Still in the fridge. Discipline is on point. 

[stormy]

18z GFS pulls much more cold air upstairs at 850mb into the system on Monday. Makes a big difference.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th?  The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.

[Kevin Reilly]

I liked that run better than 12z.  Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms.  

I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back.

The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. 

I am interested again. 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Hahaha! Bizarre Pivotal snow map! 

[Kevin Reilly]

40 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

This upcoming three to five week period to me, even tops 2009-2010 in terms of potential. And it's easy to tell that the the gifted ones on this board can sense that something out of the ordinary is headed our way. Time to strap in people. 

It is coming>>>> "FOLKS"

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Who’s starting the thread that ultimately will get shut down?

Yeah jettison this 'threat' from this thread. Detracting from all the fapping over epic h5 looks.

[Kay]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Hahaha! Bizarre Pivotal snow map! 

trippy

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th?  The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.

I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol Although it appeared to be a little closer to phasing this time...or I could be looking at it wrong. Not worth detailed analysis at this range anyway.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol

Maybe it was something soon after that, the thing that ended right at 384h, where PSU and others said it was an absolutely near-perfect setup, etc., but that the GFS "found" the one way to make it fail!

[NorthArlington101]

I got pulled into work after 5 (how dare they) but I was able to see the panel below and figured we got slammed. Almost dropped a  between calls. Room for improvement on temps but that's sweet

[snowfan]

Yesterday’s temp profile was more promising. This looks like white rain unless you’re west of 81. Plenty of time to improve though. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

I thought someone said the control run is the EURO at lower resolution but will soon be taking over as the main EURO models at a higher resolution.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Yesterday’s temp profile was more promising. This looks like white rain unless you’re west of 81. Plenty of time to improve though. 

WxBell can unfortunately only pull soundings to 90... but looking at the temp profile by 153 the metro is OK. Surface temps too warm... but the profile doesn't look that much different there than anywhere else. Heavy snow that struggles to stick most likely

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I thought someone said the control run is the EURO at lower resolution but will soon be taking over as the main EURO models at a higher resolution.

They did. You gonna drop one from 48 hours ago this time?

[psuhoffman]

Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually.  Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. 
 

That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these!  And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit.  Throw in maybe one or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS was a step back from 12Z for next week.  No pictures since it will send everyone into a conniption.

[CAPE]

Still a fair amount of spread in location and timing. I'm afraid we just can't know at this time.