Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs finally fully on board with mega block mint 500mb maps coming soon? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Ji said: No matter what happens this winter.....we had 2 good days out of 120. Nobody can take that away from us You must be an imposter; What did you do with the real Ji????? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 WB 12Z EPS, positive trend over the last 24 hours compared to 12z yesterday as I get caught up.... 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel here is just the 25th by itself 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM That's a big change in 5 days! Strong El Nino/-QBO has a very high correlation with Stratosphere warming, so I was actually surprised when models were showing a strong 10mb PV end to the year (the historical percentage is about 75-80% for the DJFM to have 10mb warming/cooling when the two indexes are together and strong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th 25 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel here is just the 25th by itself I wonder if the block will stop when the SOI moderates (It's in the -30's/-40's now). The subsurface ENSO has neutralized, and I found, all things neutral, for that to be the biggest correlator to the pattern.. even a negative tendency now in the subsurface, so I would guess this favorable pattern lasts as long as we can keep the SOI negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th Would be our first long-term -NAO in a long time.. (probably since 09-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 wow to the weeklies. looks like someone just copied and changed the dates 5 times. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th Damn son... That's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The WB EPS control run is horrible from last night. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel here is just the 25th by itself XXX Porn. Might really be the best weeklies ever, I mean ever. March might set snowfall records in the Mid Atlantic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th I remember a March many years ago when we had snow every week in March. Does anyone remember the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, J.Mike said: I remember a March many years ago when we had snow every week in March. Does anyone remember the year? 1960 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, J.Mike said: I remember a March many years ago when we had snow every week in March. Does anyone remember the year? 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 37 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The WB EPS control run is horrible from last night. I like the one you posted last week that showed 40" better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I like the one you posted last week that showed 40" better.Not sure why he would post this 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 E 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Not sure why he would post this Even great patterns require a dash of luck....hopeful it will happen, but it is not a lock until we have a threat inside a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I’ll be following for the VDay event, but we need the stars to align. Not out of the realm of possibility for sure, but thermals will be a problem. Just no significant cold air to work with. The pattern afterwards though 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I like where this is headed. N/S pushing ahead (missed phase) but plenty of energy still left in the main shortwave. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’ll be following for the VDay event, but we need the stars to align. Not out of the realm of possibility for sure, but thermals will be a problem. Just no significant cold air to work with. The pattern afterwards though It is a literal thread the needle with wave timing. We need one piece of NS energy scooting out in front phasing into the 50-50 low to flatten the flow up top, then the southern shortwave to move east just behind, and then to keep it from sliding harmlessly eastward off the coast to our south we need the next piece of NS energy to capture it just as it approaches the coast to induce a strong low just to our southeast with plenty of lift/ dynamical cooling, but not a full phase and not too soon.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: E Even great patterns require a dash of luck....hopeful it will happen, but it is not a lock until we have a threat inside a few days. But why post one member from an ensemble? From last night’s run? Seems like deliberate debbing man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Okay, so lets do this! @stormtracker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Hmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This upcoming three to five week period to me, even tops 2009-2010 in terms of potential. And it's easy to tell that the the gifted ones on this board can sense that something out of the ordinary is headed our way. Time to strap in people. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I need some some F words thrown around this happy hour GooFuS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is a literal thread the needle with wave timing. We need one piece of NS energy scooting out in front phasing into the 50-50 low to flatten the flow up top, then the southern shortwave to move east just behind, and then to keep it from sliding harmlessly eastward off the coast to our south we need the next piece of NS energy to capture it just as it approaches the coast to induce a strong low just to our southeast with plenty of lift/ dynamical cooling, but not a full phase and not too soon.. So basically...like the Ghostbusters car...it needs everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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