Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Grothar of Herndon]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

maybe the VDAY storm will turn into a MECS for the entire forum and PD follow up with a HECS and then we can call it a Winter.   what are the odds

The same as me winning the lottery...

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i am not buying the suppression....if you combine the euro and gfs...you kinda get a snowstorm lol

Totally agree with you.  It i the case of split the difference the take away is cold air intrusion from the Euro and I bet in future cycle runs we get a GFS solution a few times of 8-12" of snow. 

[Ji]

No matter what happens this winter.....we had 2 good days out of 120. Nobody can take that away from us

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I still love this setup. 

https://ibb.co/DQV7q8D

[EHoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

No matter what happens this winter.....we had 2 good days out of 120. Nobody can take that away from us

That was one of the best weeks of winter we've had in years so I'll take it.  Snow on snow was incredible.

[SnowGolfBro]

24 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

The same as me winning the lottery...

So you’re saying there’s a chance!

[psuhoffman]

Gefs finally fully on board with mega block 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs finally fully on board with mega block 

Really turns into a +PNA/-AO in the LR.. agrees with the current SOI coming in <-40, and MJO I think too. 

See how there is a Stratosphere lag: https://ibb.co/wgsNTP6

[Heisy]

Eps lit up



.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Eps lit up



.

I had a suspicion  I liked the op progression a lot better.  

[jaydreb]

EPS. 

[Heisy]

I had a suspicion  I liked the op progression a lot better.  

Yep, it’s the one we want, just gotta keep amping it up. A phase you were going to have issue with temps imo. We could still hypothetically back side phase as long as that N/S piece pushes ahead


.

[WxUSAF]

I like the setup for V-day a lot. Simple, classic. Just got a shit airmass ahead of it which leads to the need for a needle threading with the northern stream. But if it fails, there’s more chances beyond.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS still has the mega block... lots of coastal lows showing up around the PD week period

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs finally fully on board with mega block 

mint 500mb maps coming soon?

[brooklynwx99]

can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens

[brooklynwx99]

after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No matter what happens this winter.....we had 2 good days out of 120. Nobody can take that away from us

You must be an imposter; What did you do with the real Ji????? 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS, positive trend over the last 24 hours compared to 12z yesterday as I get caught up....

[brooklynwx99]

the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel

here is just the 25th by itself

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM

That's a big change in 5 days!  Strong El Nino/-QBO has a very high correlation with Stratosphere warming, so I was actually surprised when models were showing a strong 10mb PV end to the year (the historical percentage is about 75-80% for the DJFM to have 10mb warming/cooling when the two indexes are together and strong)

[brooklynwx99]

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel

here is just the 25th by itself

I wonder if the block will stop when the SOI moderates (It's in the -30's/-40's now). The subsurface ENSO has neutralized, and I found, all things neutral, for that to be the biggest correlator to the pattern.. even a negative tendency now in the subsurface, so I would guess this favorable pattern lasts as long as we can keep the SOI negative. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

Would be our first long-term -NAO in a long time.. (probably since 09-10). 

[BristowWx]

wow to the weeklies.  looks like someone just copied and changed the dates 5 times.  

[Wxdood]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

Damn son...  That's nuts.

[Weather Will]

The WB EPS control run is horrible from last night.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the weeklies are absolutely ridiculous. there are too many frames by themselves that are pure weenie fuel

here is just the 25th by itself

 

XXX Porn.  Might really be the best weeklies ever, I mean ever.  March might set snowfall records in the Mid Atlantic.  

[frd]

 

 

[J.Mike]

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

I remember a March many years ago when we had snow every week in March. Does anyone remember the year?