Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[brooklynwx99]

this is just ridiculous looking lmao

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is just ridiculous looking lmao

Block looks stronger to me on the gefs

Closer look at trends says not really, but not weaker either.  Just sharper and clearer

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is just ridiculous looking lmao

One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible.   Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA?

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible.   Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA?

Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible.   Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA?

 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm

Plus, a temporary pna ridge between all those pacific waves crashing on will get washed out in the means at that range. There would be some ridging between waves. We don’t need a lot. With that look up top we don’t even want a lot. 

[stormtracker]

OK, on the Euro, things are def different out west vs 12z.    trof/sw in the west is digging a bit more....stronger a a bit more amp'd...was broad trof on the 0z...now a bit sharper, although still broad

[stormtracker]

Def more separation vs 0z out west

[stormtracker]

Vastly different H5...s/w lagging back there by a good bit vs 0z...i have no idea how this is going to turn out...just describing what I'm seeing so far yall

[stormtracker]

Northern S/w diving south, with the base in in Northern IA/IL.    The one we're looking at is centered over the southern NM border and into Mexico

[stormtracker]

Much flatter out front with precip field   northern stream s/w and southern one aren't even close

 

ETA:  I should say the first northern s/w is way out front...there is a second one diving down, but doesn't look like  phase job as that one is not close to the southern vort either

[stormtracker]

So at 150, there's an initial slug of moisture that's sliding south of us...but there's some gathering to the west.  There's a broad ass low developing down south off of the LA coast

[stormtracker]

850 line is perilously just south of DC running west to east.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So at 150, there's an initial slug of moisture that's sliding south of us...but there's some gathering to the west.  There's a broad ass low developing down south off of the LA coast

Whether it’s a hit or not I like the changes over the top. It makes a colder solution possible. 

[Shad]

not a bad look at 138

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Whether it’s a hit or not I like the changes over the top. It makes a colder solution possible. 

yea this gives us a much better change in the overall scheme even if the storm is suppressed on this run

[stormtracker]

Low from 1008 to 1004 and over Centered over central AL.  850 line stuck just south of DC

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Low from 1008 to 1004 and over Centered over central AL.  850 line stuck just south of DC

wwbb server moved slower than this storm

[stormtracker]

168...850 line sinks a bit further south.  surface freezing just NW of DC....precip APPEARS to be going ENE...so may miss us to the SOUTH

[Ji]

when you are on day 1 of the pattern and there is marginal cold air--ill take what the euro is showing

[stormtracker]

lol..too suppressed and misses us to the south

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

168...850 line sinks a bit further south.  surface freezing just NW of DC....precip APPEARS to be going ENE...so may miss us to the SOUTH

storm is moving so slow--we are in danger of having a high pressure slide down into the great lakes lol

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol..too suppressed and misses us to the south

how does a 997 low in SW tenn miss us south lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

storm is moving so slow--we are in danger of having a high pressure slide down into the great lakes lol

It's a miss to the south.  It looked good initially tho...but glad I didn't say that.  It's a catch 22...we need suppressed, but not that suppressed

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

how does a 997 low in SW tenn miss us south lol

Dude, we're the Mid Atlantic.  Of course it can/will

[Shad]

not a bad spot to be 6-7 days out

[SnowenOutThere]

Going to need to move that whole ball of confluence a little further north (or south if want some wild phase solution but I have no idea how that would work out). Definitely close to something but as others have said this first threat will be a game of timing. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Dude, we're the Mid Atlantic.  Of course it can/will

im guessing the euro is not showing the final solution. But i never expected this storm to be suppressed of all storms lol

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

how does a 997 low in SW tenn miss us south lol

Well we had 994-997 all over the place down in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and how far north did that get.

 

Looks like we are getting the blocking just the wrong kind LOL and also with no real cold air to boot.

[Ji]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Well we had 994-997 all over the place down in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and how far north did that get.

 

Looks like we are getting the blocking just the wrong kind LOL and also with no real cold air to boot.

i am not buying the suppression....if you combine the euro and gfs...you kinda get a snowstorm lol

[Shad]

maybe the VDAY storm will turn into a MECS for the entire forum and PD follow up with a HECS and then we can call it a Winter.   what are the odds