stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 850 now well SE of the area with heavier stuff passes off SE the coast. Still some light to moderate precip in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 its trying for a Miller B, not going to work this run but ingredients are on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 In a nutshell, south of 6z (by a lot), but a bit too warm for us. So as I was saying, basically a compromise between 0z and 6z...which won't get the job done for us as well as we'd like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0 snow on accumulation map. For anyone within a 150 mile radius. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In a nutshell, south of 6z (by a lot), but a bit too warm for us. So as I was saying, basically a compromise between 0z and 6z...which won't get the job done for us as well as we'd like To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 For now it's a perfect track rainstorm, but the height and thermal fields up north have poor continuity run to run with the GFS so I think the GFS is struggling with it and the western US fields. Those pieces keep shifting 500 miles one way or another. Zero confidence forecast 7 days out, as is often the case with pattern changes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there? Looks to me like the 0z didn't deepen as quickly so we didn't have the stronger southerly flow in front of the system like in the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there? Yea, it held back, but see Terp's post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 with a poor antecedent airmass, a track like that can certainly produce rain. it's going to be like 60 degrees on Friday lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yeah, CMC is also rain. This was a bonus potential anyway. Can't be too mad about it. Maybe it'll come back 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 cmc with some light precip around late 14th early 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 When I have low confidence in the ops, I lean on the ensembles and 850s drop fast between 140 and 170 hours, with us going under 0C between 156 and 162, but both EPS and GEFS have precip ending or winding down by 162 hours. Again, it's a long shot and we probably get rain either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 there are going to be some nice looks at the end of the cmc and gfs runs weekend of the 17th 18th becoming more interesting...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 41 minutes ago, anotherman said: https://x.com/henrymargusity/status/1754828730331975893?s=61 They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist. Then there is this crap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If only it was prime climo and not April... Don’t bait me 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We need a phase between the NS and STJ wave for the PD weekend threat to work. Gfs keeps missing the phase. Other guidance isn’t really in range yet. We’ll see but it’s a little more complicated because the flow is way too suppressive without a phase to work. The STJ wave won’t be able to do it alone. Way too early though for phase details. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist. Then there is this crap. Margusity or Bastardi? Who's more of a hypster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist. Then there is this crap. Also liked how the map showed several major snowstorms and then his actual tweet said at least one major lol. Soooo, which is it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We need a phase between the NS and STJ wave for the PD weekend threat to work. Gfs keeps missing the phase. Other guidance isn’t really in range yet. We’ll see but it’s a little more complicated because the flow is way too suppressive without a phase to work. The STJ wave won’t be able to do it alone. Way too early though for phase details. 12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, anotherman said: Margusity or Bastardi? Who's more of a hypster? Are we sure they aren’t the same person? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, WxUSAF said: 12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog… What's the time line on that one. 18th-19th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Are we sure they aren’t the same person? Different people - same brain. I used to watch Margusity’s videos and think he could be trusted. Sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog… The op gfs finally got on board with the progression the ensembles have had in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog… But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yep, we have a much better shot at 2/17-18 than the one before it. Agreed we need a phase for that one. But it's close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes It looks like it's about to destroy us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If only it wasn't hr 348 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 My thoughts The initial wave will have thermal issues. We knew Feb 10-15 was the transition and anything in that window would have problems due to the trash antecedent airmass. We will need a perfect synoptic evolution for that to work. A NS lead wave to drop the boundary perhaps. Luck with a timed high. Even then we probably need a thump. It’s a shot but a half court one. Next threat is PD weekend. We likely need a phase. The block is peaking. The NS is diving over top us. A stj wave probably can’t amplify enough in that flow alone. We would need a NS wave to dig enough to our west and phase. It’s a big dog potential but needing the phase lowers the probability is comes off. I still think our best shot at a big storm comes after, in that Feb 22 on range as the block retrogrades and inevitably relaxes some. This is when a stj wave could amplify by itself and with the NS relaxing but leaving the thermal boundary south initially that’s our best simplest window. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What's the time line on that one. 18th-19th? 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes I think we have 3 storm windows right now that we can see in the medium-long range: 13-14th. 18-19th. ~22-25th that you and others have been mentioning for a week already. and I’m sure there would be more chances beyond that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes If it can climb the coast...sweet jesus....guys i'm just analyzing it...we know it's in la la land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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