Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[anotherman]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern  calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist.  Then there is this crap. 

Margusity or Bastardi?  Who's more of a hypster?

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern  calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist.  Then there is this crap. 

Also liked how the map showed several major snowstorms and then his actual tweet said at least one major lol. Soooo, which is it?

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need a phase between the NS and STJ wave for the PD weekend threat to work. Gfs keeps missing the phase. Other guidance isn’t really in range yet. We’ll see but it’s a little more complicated because the flow is way too suppressive without a phase to work. The STJ wave won’t be able to do it alone. Way too early though for phase details. 

12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog…

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Margusity or Bastardi?  Who's more of a hypster?

Are we sure they aren’t the same person? 

[stormtracker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog…

What's the time line on that one.  18th-19th?

[anotherman]

Are we sure they aren’t the same person? 

Different people - same brain. I used to watch Margusity’s videos and think he could be trusted. Sad.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog…

The op gfs finally got on board with the progression the ensembles have had in the long range. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog…

But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes 

[Terpeast]

Yep, we have a much better shot at 2/17-18 than the one before it. Agreed we need a phase for that one. But it's close.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes 

It looks like it's about to destroy us

[stormtracker]

If only it wasn't hr 348 

[psuhoffman]

My thoughts

The initial wave will have thermal issues. We knew Feb 10-15 was the transition and anything in that window would have problems due to the trash antecedent airmass. We will need a perfect synoptic evolution for that to work. A NS lead wave to drop the boundary perhaps. Luck with a timed high. Even then we probably need a thump. It’s a shot but a half court one. 
 

Next threat is PD weekend. We likely need a phase. The block is peaking. The NS is diving over top us. A stj wave probably can’t amplify enough in that flow alone. We would need a NS wave to dig enough to our west and phase. It’s a big dog potential but needing the phase lowers the probability is comes off. 

I still think our best shot at a big storm comes after, in that Feb 22 on range as the block retrogrades and inevitably relaxes some. This is when a stj wave could amplify by itself and with the NS relaxing but leaving the thermal boundary south initially that’s our best simplest window. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What's the time line on that one.  18th-19th?

 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes 

I think we have 3 storm windows right now that we can see in the medium-long range:

13-14th. 
18-19th.

~22-25th that you and others have been mentioning for a week already. and I’m sure there would be more chances beyond that.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes 

If it can climb the coast...sweet jesus....guys i'm just analyzing it...we know it's in la la land.  

[Kevin Reilly]

February 13th and 14th.  I am out.  No Cold High up north.  Rain!  Again this was a bonus wait until after the 15-16th of February. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If it can climb the coast...sweet jesus....guys i'm just analyzing it...we know it's in la la land.  

Oh man.....

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If it can climb the coast...sweet jesus....guys i'm just analyzing it...we know it's in la la land.  

On this run it cut off a little too soon and south. Might still try. Ideally we want it to cut off in the TN valley and move ENE. But my god whatever the end result it’s so close to annihilating us.  

[CAPE]

12z GEFS likes the 13th a little more for frozen in our region than previous runs.

[stormtracker]

Verbatim, warm air intrusion...so it's a rainer, but I mean...300+ hrs.  I feel like WW.   If it were colder, it would be a HECS

[jaydreb]

GEFS. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Just now, jaydreb said:

GEFS. 

Keeps hope alive so I won't jump yet. A week out what can go wrong.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

On this run it cut off a little too soon and south. Might still try. Ideally we want it to cut off in the TN valley and move ENE. But my god whatever the end result it’s so close to annihilating us.  

It's 1.25" of QPF down here.  You get badly fringed, so prep for HECS everybody.  

*actually, maybe you don't.  Still going at 384..but can't get total QPF maps beyond that.    I'm so bored.    Anyway, Euro up next!

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Verbatim, warm air intrusion...so it's a rainer, but I mean...300+ hrs.  I feel like WW.   If it were colder, it would be a HECS

Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run. 

[CAPE]

There is an indication of 2 waves on the mean in the 12-14th window, but probably just timing differences among the members. Don't care enough at this juncture to look.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Verbatim, warm air intrusion...so it's a rainer, but I mean...300+ hrs.  I feel like WW.   If it were colder, it would be a HECS

Don’t weenie me, we’re just analyzing it, but if you go to hr 300-320 and look at the lead in, a lot has to go wrong to end that way. The stj wave cuts off too soon. A stupid little NS wave that I guarantee won’t be there next run comes along at the exact wrong time and create a weakness in the confluence. If both those don’t happen we get crushed.  From that 300 hour setup there was like 9 ways to get a snowstorm and the gfs found the one rain path lol. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don’t weenie me, we’re just analyzing it, but if you go to hr 300-320 and look at the lead in, a lot has to go wrong to end that way. The stj wave cuts off too soon. A stupid little NS wave that I guarantee won’t be there next run comes along at the exact wrong time and create a weakness in the confluence. If both those don’t happen we get crushed.  From that 300 hour setup there was like 9 ways to get a snowstorm and the gfs found the one rain path lol. 

the GFS is also making two perfect 90 degree angles with like a 250kt jet. color me skeptical!

[psuhoffman]

And I know I’m the king of perfect track rainstorms but I wouldn’t worry about the gfs thermals at those ranges. Jan 2016 was warm at day 10-12. It was there but would it be snow was a legit thing. Around day 9 it started trending colder. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

And I know I’m the king of perfect track rainstorms but I wouldn’t worry about the gfs thermals at those ranges. Jan 2016 was warm at day 10-12. It was there but would it be snow was a legit thing. Around day 9 it started trending colder. 

Biggest takeaway has nothing to do with thermals... only that the models may just now be starting to pick up big threats at range.

[psuhoffman]

On the other hand, if at the end of this pattern the h5 matches 1958 and 2010 but all we got was a bunch of rain from perfect wave passes then we know and I can stop wasting my time. 
 

I firmly do not believe that’s how this is gonna go down though. 

[paulythegun]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run. 

12z GFS was a Panic Room CLASSIC. Just amazing stuff.

I agree with others though that the takeaway should be largely positive here. We're seeing multiple strong waves ride under us with plenty of moisture.