Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Terpeast]

H132 looks more similar to 06z than 00z

[stormtracker]

All I can tell you know is it's definitely flatter out front wrt to precip orientation.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

H132 looks more similar to 06z than 00z

It's flatter...i'm ahead a bit

[Terpeast]

141, hanging further back... I take back my 06 vs 00z statement

[stormtracker]

h5 is vastly different (better) than 6z...southern s/w isn't phase it and southern s/w is almost neg titled with base in southern AL/MS

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

141, hanging further back... I take back my 06 vs 00z statement

Tried to tell you

[stormtracker]

So, it's flatter with precip, but it APPEARS as tho it's gonna be too warm for us...but this is sort of a split the difference between 0z and 6z so far

[Terpeast]

6z was an open wave, but both 00z and 12z are closed h5 lows in TVA... 12z is just a little ahead

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So, it's flatter with precip, but it APPEARS as tho it's gonna be too warm for us...but this is sort of a split the difference between 0z and 6z so far

Less confluence

[stormtracker]

Rain comes in at 159

[stormtracker]

0 850 sags south to DC border...with precip ongoing

[stormtracker]

vort passes south of us...still a bit too warm at 165 precip still going...850 bisects DC from SW to E

[LP08]

Surface is really warm...Like 46 at the start of precip.

[SnowenOutThere]

If only it was prime climo and not April...

[stormtracker]

850 now well SE of the area with heavier stuff passes off SE the coast.  Still some light to moderate precip in the area

[Shad]

its trying for a Miller B, not going to work this run but ingredients are on the table

[stormtracker]

In a nutshell, south of 6z (by a lot), but a bit too warm for us.  So as I was saying, basically a compromise between 0z and 6z...which won't get the job done for us as well as we'd like

[stormtracker]

0 snow on accumulation map.  For anyone within a 150 mile radius.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In a nutshell, south of 6z (by a lot), but a bit too warm for us.  So as I was saying, basically a compromise between 0z and 6z...which won't get the job done for us as well as we'd like

To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there?

[Terpeast]

For now it's a perfect track rainstorm, but the height and thermal fields up north have poor continuity run to run with the GFS so I think the GFS is struggling with it and the western US fields. Those pieces keep shifting 500 miles one way or another. Zero confidence forecast 7 days out, as is often the case with pattern changes.

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there?

Looks to me like the 0z didn't deepen as quickly so we didn't have the stronger southerly flow in front of the system like in the 12z.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there?

Yea, it held back, but see Terp's post

[brooklynwx99]

with a poor antecedent airmass, a track like that can certainly produce rain. it's going to be like 60 degrees on Friday lmao

[stormtracker]

Yeah, CMC is also rain.   This was a bonus potential anyway.   Can't be too mad about it.  Maybe it'll come back

[Shad]

cmc with some light precip around late 14th early 15th

[Terpeast]

When I have low confidence in the ops, I lean on the ensembles and 850s drop fast between 140 and 170 hours, with us going under 0C between 156 and 162, but both EPS and GEFS have precip ending or winding down by 162 hours. Again, it's a long shot and we probably get rain either way. 

[Shad]

there are going to be some nice looks at the end of the cmc and gfs runs   weekend of the 17th 18th becoming more interesting......

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, anotherman said:

https://x.com/henrymargusity/status/1754828730331975893?s=61

They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern  calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist.  Then there is this crap. 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If only it was prime climo and not April...

Don’t bait me 

[psuhoffman]

We need a phase between the NS and STJ wave for the PD weekend threat to work. Gfs keeps missing the phase. Other guidance isn’t really in range yet. We’ll see but it’s a little more complicated because the flow is way too suppressive without a phase to work. The STJ wave won’t be able to do it alone. Way too early though for phase details.