Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, 174 it's def snow...pretty moderator...on the way out 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO

[stormtracker]

Better than it initially looked

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

probably...but we're dealing with mid 30s here

Yeah, but lends some credence to the GFS...might be a sleeper event..but..174 hours, lol

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Is 168 snow?

This is what the PW sounding at DCA has

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO

[Weather Will]

Something to track inside a week is a good thing......

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

definitely...it's a bomb.....long duration just like the euro favors....7 am-ish to 3 am-ish.  

35 

[yoda]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

That's a snowstorm...Does pivotal have access to the whole column on the euro or is some of this extrapolated between layers

What do you mean?  The column is on the left side

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm sure it will all work out.  lots of cold air to tap into.

Thankfully this storm comes with a supply of 134a and excels at creating its own cold air

[Ji]

1/26/11 part 2.  

I heard someone compare it to Jan 2022. How warm was it before that storm?

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[Ji]

That upper level low south of Tampa has broken low height records for that region. Interesting dates here

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[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for next week, still a chance.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS went north for next week, congrats Northern PA.

[CAPE]

^More in agreement with the signal for frozen to our north on the GEFS. With no semblance of HP up north and a marginal airmass, it all hinges on a significant piece of northern stream energy running out in front at the right time to flatten the flow/create confluence. Didn't happen this run.

[frd]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^More in agreement with the signal for frozen to our north on the GEFS. With no semblance of HP up north and a marginal airmass, it all hinges on a significant piece of northern stream energy running out in front at the right time to flatten the flow/create confluence. Didn't happen this run.

When do you think is the first legit chance of a accumulating snow for the lowlands? 

 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

I heard someone compare it to Jan 2022. How warm was it before that storm?

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It was pouring rain here in the morning when that storm started.  Ended up with around a foot of snow though.  I was sure it was gonna just stay as rain it felt so warm out when I woke up.  

[Kevin Reilly]

I will keep asking the question?  Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed?  This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS keeps some hope alive for next week.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I will keep asking the question?  Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed?  This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so. 

Mid month. As the pattern in the NA transitions towards a blocking regime, there is going to be a lot of vorticity flying around in the NS. As the block develops much of that energy will be consolidated/feed into the 50-50 low as the ridge over Greenland strengthens and builds westward. That sequence of events will promote surface HP over eastern Canada.

[brooklynwx99]

this retrograding Scandi high on the EPS is textbook

[Blizzard of 93]

SOI continues to absolutely tank.

Largest single day contribution yet with a -41

[midatlanticweather]

Chasing pattern changes has been a tiring process several years in a row. I am impressed with the persistence of some people doing so. I have grown weary and keep wondering if it is all an illusion. I think next week will be rain. I am not counting on anything more than cold liquid. I hope the changes that are supposed to happen after it are real and matter. It seems like a cold dry pattern to me. Thanks for the work people

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

In case anyone didn’t know and was afraid to ask - 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niñaepisodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes

[WinterWxLuvr]

So … we just don’t know? That about where we are?

[Ji]

So … we just don’t know? That about where we are?

It’s better than knowing

[Ji]

In case anyone didn’t know and was afraid to ask - 
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niñaepisodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes

Jb said back in the day that negative soi ensures
Troughs keep moving in the sw….not getting stuck like gfs always shows

[Bob Chill]

With the longwave flow in major flux above us, and acknowledging that the last 2 times this happened (both directions) models all jumped to new conclusions inside of 10 days, it's worth keeping a completely open mind to the VD period. The ingredients are there but dicey (as always). But the path to victory is perfectly logical and has happened b4. 

@Jiyou mentioned 2015 type storms. Yea, I remember a few in more detail now. One in particular. Wave running into a cold press. Temps went from not great leading in to actually too much cold arctic air pressing down and it pacman'd the northern edge really bad. It surprised us a little. Those "press" type of setup do happen here. The VD period is a longshot but if it sets up it's not complicated 

[stormtracker]

The 6z GFS just ticked a hair north.  We got time. Slight 500 miles south tick is all we need. 

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So … we just don’t know? That about where we are?

Pretty much.  Pretty sure 12z is gonna have another scenario on deck. For a change, we actually want a S/w out front to fuck up any possible phase.