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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. 

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I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. 
Reminds me of some late Feb 2015 stuff lol

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. 

Well, it's not a trend, but this is the first time I've seen the GFS hold on to a solution for us to get snow two times in a row since I've been tracking H5 trends for the last 4 days.   Really doesn't mean shit, but it is sort noteable.   We might have been sleeping on Valentines day.   Or it may just be another phantom.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, it's not a trend, but this is the first time I've seen the GFS hold on to a solution for us to get snow two times in a row since I've been tracking H5 trends for the last 4 days.   Really doesn't mean shit, but it is sort noteable.   We might have been sleeping on Valentines day.   Or it may just be another phantom.

You Rang

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I like these setups. Shortwave isn't crazy strong and confluence is backing down into it. Everything has to smash into each other just right but there's wiggle room. Just need the confluence to set up right. It can happen before or during the approach. We have some good history with this stuff. 

Those are our best storms. When a wave tries to come at us from the SW but hits the brick wall of confluence from a block. 

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Well, it's not a trend, but this is the first time I've seen the GFS hold on to a solution for us to get snow two times in a row since I've been tracking H5 trends for the last 4 days.   Really doesn't mean shit, but it is sort noteable.   We might have been sleeping on Valentines day.   Or it may just be another phantom.
12z gfs lol. The north trend is real loldbf1c5fd8e2645e26d5423a9cd12d0af.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Reminds me of some late Feb 2015 stuff lol

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The 80s has some good storms like this iirc. 2015 had weird blocking but we definitely got striped like a train track. 

I was thinking yesterday how how terrible the 14 day AO forecasts have been this winter. The big moves were missed badly beyond 10 days. Outside of normal bad range too. AO is tanking faster than predicted now. GFS could be right but it's messy with temps no matter. 

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The 80s has some good storms like this iirc. 2015 had weird blocking but we definitely got striped like a train track. 
I was thinking yesterday how how terrible the 14 day AO forecasts have been this winter. The big moves were missed badly beyond 10 days. Outside of normal bad range too. AO is tanking faster than predicted now. GFS could be right but it's messy with temps no matter. 
I never expect the first storm on day 1 of the pattern change to be anything but messy but by that date as you said ao is solidify negative

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The GFS delays the main wave which allows the N/S to race ahead and supply cold air. Cmc was a nod towards the GFS but it has terrible spacing so nothing comes of it. Euro obviously phased the two waves which would be worst case. Hopefully see the euro go towards the GFS


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1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Ukie is in the euro phasing camp, 18z euro control phases the waves even more than 12z so that wasn’t good. We’ll see, need more support before it can be taken serious

5cd58427a59b6a4929d7bd1dc4095260.gif


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This looks better than the 12z Euro. Even the ensembles were flatter than the op runs. 

Cmc came in way flatter than the 12z run.

2b447f0a-c40f-458f-addb-64462d769829.gif

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