frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Nothing new really, this has been gone over recenlty, that we need to wait for the Greenland block to retrograde and relax. However, worth mentioning the probability is there for a rather significant event in the Mid Atlantic later in Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Cool info 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 need help imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Love this stuff 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Have to say gefs has trended south for feb 14 the last several runs, so that is an interesting development. Not on board yet, but I am now watching this one instead of disregarding it as a cutter 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Have to say gefs has trended south for feb 14 the last several runs, so that is an interesting development. Not on board yet, but I am now watching this oneSorry will says no chance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Then why post it. Are you that miserable? Just keep it to yourself There is weak support, not miserable about it. Just stating facts. Don't read my posts if you find them a waste of your time. I find the personal attacks on this forum ridiculous. If you need 50 inches of snow a year, you live in the wrong location. Chances of another 2010 in the next 50 years is slim to none. I don't expect it to happen again in my lifetime (back to back blizzards totaling 50 plus inches in a week's time). 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Sorry will says no chance Maybe he’s right. But it’s always been showing a cutter, as is the Euro currently. We’ll see if gefs is out to lunch or is onto something here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I did not say no chance, right now it looks like 10-15 chance next week based on 18Z GEFS. Better than 0% like this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I did not say no chance, right now it looks like 10-15 chance next week. Better than 0% like this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Deep into March. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 42 minutes ago, frd said: Love this stuff Last few runs of the GEFS look less impressive in the NA compared to the EPS and GEPS towards PD. No idea what it means or if it even matters at this juncture. The overall idea across guidance is still on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, frd said: The jet is in Mexico. Ugh Its gonna bring rain to Texas then a BIG storm will blow up and lumber into the Mid Atlantic, laden with lots and lots of heavy snow. Tracker will yell FOLKS so damn loud even all of us down in the Southwest will hear it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Last few runs of the GEFS look less impressive in the NA compared to the EPS and GEPS towards PD. No idea what it means or if it even matters at this juncture. The overall idea across guidance is still on track. Yes, I saw that and I was reading Tip's thoughts in the New england forum where he mentioned he believes the + PNA longevity might be brief. Hard to say for sure what eventually happens in the Pac. The Greenland Block and the - AO look legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 15 minutes ago, frd said: Yes, I saw that and I was reading Tip's thoughts in the New england forum where he mentioned he believes the + PNA longevity might be brief. Hard to say for sure what eventually happens in the Pac. The Greenland Block and the - AO look legit. maybe for storms that may not be the worst thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 39 minutes ago, frd said: Yes, I saw that and I was reading Tip's thoughts in the New england forum where he mentioned he believes the + PNA longevity might be brief. Hard to say for sure what eventually happens in the Pac. The Greenland Block and the - AO look legit. any ridge spikes in the Rockies are likely temporary, which is often the case and isn't a bad thing. ensembles wouldn't be able to pick up on that at range. here's 2016, for example. there was only a brief Rockies ridge spike pretty much a day or two before the storm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 50 minutes ago, CAPE said: Last few runs of the GEFS look less impressive in the NA compared to the EPS and GEPS towards PD. No idea what it means or if it even matters at this juncture. The overall idea across guidance is still on track. FWIW the last run of the GEFS beefed the blocking up more. since the blocking is forced by wave breaking and an amplified 50/50 ULL, I would expect the GEFS to be on the weaker side with blocking due to its progressive bias. the EPS and GEPS both looking way more aggressive is a bit of a red flag there. the EPS has trended significantly stronger with blocking since 12z yesterday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: FWIW the last run of the GEFS beefed the blocking up more. since the blocking is forced by wave breaking and an amplified 50/50 ULL, I would expect the GEFS to be on the weaker side with blocking due to its progressive bias. the EPS and GEPS both looking way more aggressive is a bit of a red flag there. the EPS has trended significantly stronger with blocking since 12z yesterday By red flag you mean too much of a good thing? I tried checking the 48hr 500mb trend on TT but it won’t show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: By red flag you mean too much of a good thing? I tried checking the 48hr 500mb trend on TT but it won’t show it he is saying that that that EPS and GEPS show strong blocking and GEFS not as strong due to progressive bias...its a red flag GEFS is off 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: By red flag you mean too much of a good thing? I tried checking the 48hr 500mb trend on TT but it won’t show it nah I meant red flag as in the GEFS is likely too weak with it. the more anomalous, the better with the block, as it would just reinforce a better air mass and 50/50. a larger storm would come after it weakens a bit, anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: nah I meant red flag as in the GEFS is likely too weak with it. the more anomalous, the better with the block, as it would just reinforce a better air mass and 50/50. a larger storm would come after it weakens a bit, anyway Ah yea, gotcha thanks. Just compared the latest ens of all 3, now I see the gefs being the weakest with the block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 54 minutes ago, Ji said: maybe for storms that may not be the worst thing That's also what I was wondering. I mean...would we want a slightly weaker block to avoid potential suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: There is weak support, not miserable about it. Just stating facts. Don't read my posts if you find them a waste of your time. I find the personal attacks on this forum ridiculous. If you need 50 inches of snow a year, you live in the wrong location. Chances of another 2010 in the next 50 years is slim to none. I don't expect it to happen again in my lifetime (back to back blizzards totaling 50 plus inches in a week's time). For what it's worth, I pretty much agree with what you said, and you didn't say it in such a way as to be an overt deb. As for the person (ahem...Ji) that you replied to...and I may get hammered for saying this, but who cares. I find it incredibly rich and ironic that someone who is arguably one of the worst and most immature weenieish posters on this site would call out others for the content of their posts! Sorry but yeah, I went there. So be it. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's also what I was wondering. I mean...would we want a slightly weaker block to avoid potential suppression? You know by reading here going into a block or relaxing from a block is our best chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: You know by reading here going into a block or relaxing from a block is our best chance Next week and 2 weeks later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I'm not going to keep saying the -NAO needs to ease up for us to get a storm.. have some faith. I don't want one of those storms where it melts fast anyway. The STJ is active right now.. All we need is one of these to time right with the cold air.. I'd rather the block hold its strong tendency through early March, than lift out and give us a storm. But recent runs have started to weaken -NAO in the 16 day today, yeah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 38 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: You know by reading here going into a block or relaxing from a block is our best chance Believe it or not I actually wasn't sure about how chances tend to work heading into a block (hey maybe I can see a real time example in about 12-15 days ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Dead in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Solution Man said: Dead in here GFS will come in and put the forum out of its misery for the night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS will come in and put the forum out of its misery for the night. All 19 of us, maybe we get a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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