BristowWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 42 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Lots of storms and rumors of storms. Wailing and gnashing of teeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Light up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 13/14 comes to life on 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, stormy said: 13/14 comes to life on 18z GFS Yea its great thermals are all messed up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Ji said: i think the Feb 13-14 storm has disappeared Look again on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 After many variations the GFS gets the wave timing/interaction just right. Nice sharp southern shortwave. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Yea its great thermals are all messed up though. Surface sucks but everything else checks out. Idk. Interesting for now. Nothing else in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Good start to HH 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 WB 18Z GFS 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I see I did not miss anything from 12Zzzzzzzzzzz...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea its great thermals are all messed up though. 925 is marginal upfront, 850 will work for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I won't do that anymore. Didn't realize it would set all this off. I mean other people have mentioned it occasionally throughout the winter, so I didn't think it was out of bounds. It's been a lot of "best shot in 8 years" (and it is)...but I guess I shouldn't have said what has kinda been informing my view of needing this winter to work. But looking too far into what may or may not happen in the future is an issue I have in general. I'm like that with stuff and I have to work on it. .......Seems no matter how hard I try I can never get it right in here. Carry on, folks. Sorry for the distraction. Well, as the great Yogi Berra said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." He would have made a great meteorologist, if he took a different career path!! And we don't "need" this winter to "work", whatever that exactly means. I get where you're coming from, the past several years have been rough for anyone who loves snow, with a few exceptions on some events. That said, the longer range ensembles and weeklies have been consistently showing what is one of the best patterns we could ask for, according to @psuhoffman one that only occurs every decade or whatever. And every major model has been in lock-step with the same exact look for some time, it's remarkable. Let's just hope we can maximize what we can out of that, whatever we get. It's not a "guarantee" (I know you know this already), but just try to focus on tracking individual events if and when they start appearing as we get into ops range more. Try not to put this so much into the larger context and worrying about things like that. Take what we get for what it is, whether we get. I feel like I'm going all @Bob Chill zen-meister here, but you get the idea. Personally, I just cannot get all worked up if we don't get X inches of snow because the long term trends, etc. I'd be liable to not enjoy a HECS or a couple of really good MECS events if I worried too much about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS ...Dafuq just happened????!!!! I wasn't even paying much attention and then I see this, LOL!!! PSU slightly fringed, right where we want it! ETA: Yeah, the thermals look whacked-out and meh...but whatever! Interesting it keeps the low south of us. I'm guessing that low in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes kinda messes things up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 That's a lot of cold HP lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's a lot of cold HP lol Yeah...now gimme a nice wave underneath that and some good moisture overrunning, please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's a lot of cold HP lol Conveyor belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's a lot of cold HP lol Weaken that HP a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Yeah that's not gonna help for PD. Suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Surface sucks but everything else checks out. Idk. Interesting for now. Nothing else in the medium range Oh, I agree I can care less about thermals this far out what's important is that there is a storm pretty much on the benchmark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Conveyor belt Holy crap what kind of pattern is that? Coast to coast open freezer door. Before I look that isn’t AN temps is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's not gonna help for PD. Suppression depression. The jet is in Mexico. Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Holy crap what kind of pattern is that? Coast to coast open freezer door. Before I look that isn’t AN temps is it? Gonna be Storm Crushers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Big dog pattern. 1 1 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 22 minutes ago, frd said: The jet is in Mexico. Ugh Op run at range. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, snowfan said: Big dog pattern. Op run at range. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's not gonna help for PD. Suppression depression. Op run at range. Although ens runs have been hinting at this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Op run at range. Although ens runs have been hinting at this outcome. I appreciate that you ‘op run at range’ ed your own post lol. All true re: op run. That said, you would expect that the signals showing up in the ensembles will eventually translate to some consistent signs of cold/storminess in the ops. Let’s just assume this is the LR GFS doing its usual every 6 hour dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I appreciate that you ‘op run at range’ ed your own post lol. All true re: op run. That said, you would expect that the signals showing up in the ensembles will eventually translate to some consistent signs of cold/storminess in the ops. Let’s just assume this is the LR GFS doing its usual every 6 hour dance. Not how this works at all but I’d trade the LR for the VD storm it put out this run. I’ll take snow as soon as I can get it over uncertain future prospects 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 WB 18Z GEFS, weak support for snow storm next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 WB 18Z GEFS, weak support for storm next week.Then why post it. Are you that miserable? Just keep it to yourself 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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