Scraff Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Cosgrove on board… I almost titled this discussion, "This is your last and best chance for serious cold and snow if you live in the southern and eastern tier of the USA". But for reasons of brevity, I decided against that starting banner. Instead, I look at the 11-15, 16-20, and 21-25 day periods as a chance to see "true winter" before the warmer and wetter March pattern arrives. The analog forecasts did very well in January with the cold plunge and cases of excessive (frozen and liquid) precipitation, so the similarity of the numerical models to the 500MB and temperature alignment should not be ignored. You have a rare -EPO/-AO/-NAO configuration forecast by all of the ensemble platforms, which have been consistent for about a week now. Remember my mantra: the worst and most extreme systems show up, with clarity, for many days before. Besides the massive conjoined blocking ridge, there is the matter of the impressive southern branch jet stream. A cAk vortex will form over James Bay and nudge into Quebec by February16. The powerful wind field will have two prominent pieces of cyclonic energy that start in western Mexico, move into Georgia and Florida, then churn northward along the Atlantic shoreline and interact with the developing cold dome. As to which system, if any, hits paydirt and intensifies while moving parallel to the East Coast, I cannot say. But there is a chance for an impressive storm with cold drainage to match vorticity and deep moisture input. In a sense, the south central, Mid-Atlantic and New England states have the chance for "something really special" in terms of precipitation amount and type. The 500MB core on all of the schemes is just below Long Island NY on or near President's Day. The second shortwave is approaching South Texas at that time. I am following the colder GGEM panels in terms of surface temperature. Now again I will warn those of you that are winter weather enthusiasts that with a decaying El Nino, a la 1973, March will be much warmer outside of the West. The western states will be dumped on by heavy wet snow in this process (think Sierra Madre and San Juan Ranges), but by spring a Mogollon Rim closed cyclone is a good possibility. The remainder of February from the High Plains into the Upper Midwest may be cold, but most likely dry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out. What's coming up next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What's coming up next year? We seem to be moving away from a Nino pretty rapidly https://ibb.co/wYVVgQD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What's coming up next year? Idk. We can barely figure out next week. Maybe somebody knows something but I'll wait until late Nov before discussing it. 6 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But again, we never expected anything out of this one. Would have been a bonus i dont think the euro has the storm we were "tracking for VD" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking This may be the somewhat rate instance where a 2010 comparison isn't JB-level analog hyping, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro bout to make one hell of a rainstorm. Good. It beats suppressed and dry, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What's coming up next year? The CPC believes we will be close to -.75 C. come October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 i think the Feb 13-14 storm has disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Idk. We can barely figure out next week. Maybe somebody knows something but I'll wait until late Nov before discussing it. La nina isn't it? And descending solar, and another factor someone pointed out earlier..not great for snow chances. Haven't heard anything different...that's why I've been keying in on this winter hoping it delivers above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It is pretty interesting to look at the progression of the Individual members on the GEFS.. look at the confidence on the 50-50 at 318 hours.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 17 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the Feb 13-14 storm has disappeared It is alive and well on the euro (albeit too warm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Idk. We can barely figure out next week. Maybe somebody knows something but I'll wait until late Nov before discussing it. People expect nino to deliver an epic winter and la nina to be brutal. Any deviation from that gets people upset apparently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: People expect nino to deliver an epic winter and la nina to be brutal. Any deviation from that gets people upset apparently. You have to remember… People are crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: People expect nino to deliver an epic winter and la nina to be brutal. Any deviation from that gets people upset apparently. La ninas aren't always brutal, but they have a low ceiling. Highest total in the cities was 18" the one year (17-18 I believe). That was reached by a lot of 1-2" nickle and dime events which is...okay. But of the 5 most recent ones...that was the ceiling. And they are a pain in the butt to track with all the NS dominance and interference, the Miller Bs, the se ridge, snow holes, and other annoyances. Contrast that with what you could get in a niño. Now, those can certainly fail too...but looking at them in general, the odds are just better here. If a niño doesn't go full-on torch a la 1997-98, you always have a chance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the Feb 13-14 storm has disappeared EPS has a signal. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I think 2/13-14 was always going to be a cutter that brings about the pattern change, not one of the waves of interest AFTER the cold gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 trends you like to see 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: La nina isn't it? And descending solar, and another factor someone pointed out earlier..not great for snow chances. Haven't heard anything different...that's why I've been keying in on this winter hoping it delivers above average. Your only real knowledge is parroting what other people say, which isn't all that uncommon among folks on this board (me included), but you so often interpret this information incorrectly. Please stop shitting up the thread with your worries about next year - we have 4-6 weeks of potential coming up to end the season. Why don't we just focus on that? 15 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 JB go big or go home 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: JB go big or go home Lots of storms and rumors of storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: JB go big or go home lol he used the 12z snow map but 00z anomalies. What a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, stormy said: The CPC believes we will be close to -.75 C. come October. But but wait a minute anything - C. is la nina right? And that's what climate prediction models have been saying, right??? That la nina is more likely at the moment. But according to @mattie g I thought I interpreted this incorrectly? As far as the other thing about not focusing on next year yet...noted. But don't sit up here and say I have no real knowledge--Uncalled for. Some of you have no mercy whatsoever. I am learning. P.S. This is a LONG range thread. Next year is still long range. So a passing mention isn't out of bounds. Like actually...nothing I said is out of bounds for this thread. I just made a statement about next year just as others have also stated about next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Tell me what part of these predictions I'm misinterpreting. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/will-la-nina-return-this-fall-the-tea-leaves-are-unusually-strong/ This article from last month: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds "Chances of La Niña conditions are topping 50-60% by the Northern Hemisphere late summer/fall, as many of our computer climate models are predicting that La Niña will develop. La Niña has its own set of global impacts, of course, including a tendency to increase Atlantic hurricane activity. We’ll be keeping an eagle eye on conditions in the tropical Pacific as this El Niño wanes over the next several months." Y'all have no mercy whatsoever. Like literally every climate prediction I've read is saying la nina is more likely right now. What about that is wrong? 1995-96 was a moderate Nina and Baltimore had a 60”+ winter. 1999-2000 was a strong Nina and had three great weeks of winter including a blizzard. There just aren’t any absolutes in weather. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 1995-96 was a moderate Nina and Baltimore had a 60”+ winter. 1999-2000 was a strong Nina and had three great weeks of winter including a blizzard. There just aren’t any absolutes in weather. Yes--weather can still weather. Weather is chaotic and can do crazy things that can certainly deviate from expectation. That is something I've learned over time. Recency bias is real tho...5 ninas tracking here have made me pull my already thinning hair out *pull hair out emoji if we had one* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes--weather can still weather. Weather is chaotic and can do crazy things that can certainly deviate from expectation. That is something I've learned over time. Recency bias is real tho...5 ninas tracking here have made me pull my already thinning hair out *pull hair out emoji if we had one* lol I’ve probably been bald longer than you’ve been alive. But I’m sure as heck not gonna worry about getting shut out in 2024-25 just yet. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes--weather can still weather. Weather is chaotic and can do crazy things that can certainly deviate from expectation. That is something I've learned over time. Recency bias is real tho...5 ninas tracking here have made me pull my already thinning hair out *pull hair out emoji if we had one* stop using this thread to talk about next winters disaster 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: stop using this thread to talk about next winters disaster yeah one disaster at a time! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Ji said: stop using this thread to talk about next winters disaster I won't do that anymore. Didn't realize it would set all this off. I mean other people have mentioned it occasionally throughout the winter, so I didn't think it was out of bounds. It's been a lot of "best shot in 8 years" (and it is)...but I guess I shouldn't have said what has kinda been informing my view of needing this winter to work. But looking too far into what may or may not happen in the future is an issue I have in general. I'm like that with stuff and I have to work on it. .......Seems no matter how hard I try I can never get it right in here. Carry on, folks. Sorry for the distraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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