DDweatherman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It’s not just Nina, but the QBO will likely go back positive, and we might have maxed out on solar and start the descending cycle then. Purely based on these variables, I’m not optimistic except for a winter trip out to Whistler. Sure we can get lucky with one storm like Jan 2022. But that’s all a year way. Back to your regularly scheduled pattern change tracking. That stuff is just such spec, especially at this point, thankfully? The QBO is like the MJO these days, how much is it really impacting the base state/bigger picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Ji said: If we just get to climo..winter is a disaster I kind of agree with you here. This is our winter to make our hay....... Although I would call it a disappointment rather than disaster lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I kind of agree with you here. This is our winter to make our hay....... Although I would call it a disappointment rather than disaster lol Yeah, this year is the best year to swing for the fences. But keep in mind we have had couple of near misses. One in Jan 7, which had temperature issues and a track too inland. Couple degrees colder, it would have been a warning-level SECS maybe a low-end MECS. I was pretty disappointed in that one, and led me to lower my expectations a smidge. Another one was when Nova Scotia got pounded recently. This wasn't a "synoptic miss" in the sense that the track was 200 miles too far south, or a "mesoscale miss" with best banding 50 miles too far north... this was a planetary wave miss of about 500 miles (which isn't much at that scale) as I mentioned earlier. Move that omega block 500 miles west, and get the NS wave to dig in the tennessee valley, and we'd have gotten that HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm 100% stoked on the AO/NAO. Mid Jan was a gut punch with the hit and run. That was unusual. So much so I don't remember seeing a rapid flip from dep neg to deep positive. Oscillations are normal/expected. That wasn't an oscillation. It was a bowling ball on a trampoline. Considering length of lead and laser focus throughout, this current potential blocking event looks much more classic and stable. If that's the case, we can probably expect a decent -AO/NAO on the means for 45 days. Maybe longer but 45 gets us thru March. Maybe coincidence (again) but met winter sure seems to have moved forward 2 weeks last 8 years or so. Maybe this winter is progressing as previous just not following the calendar. Beats me but Mar 24 will likely be another memorable and recent March. How long was the big block in place b4 the first Feb storm in 2010? We were cold and dry for a while before the late Jan storm. I remember the big relax after Dec 19th but when it came back it never left until late Feb. I think the extremely warm waters in the western pacific ran interference as the mjo wave propagates through. The spike and delay there was problematic because that forcing correlates with a positive nao. But if we look at the winter as a whole perhaps we are on a 2010 type trajectory just warmer and displaced about 3 weeks later. Obviously we didn’t get a hecs from the first block but we did get two secs and snow on snow. The relax was worse due to a warmer overall thermal profile now v 2010 and the west pac issue but it’s following a similar trajectory and h5 pattern. 2010 was very high on my analogs list when I did the numbers. But no two years are the same. So it’s not shocking if there are similarities but perhaps this yea is warmer overall and the timing is a few weeks off. The progression similarities to 2010 are pretty amazing. Also the way the SPV took repeated hits is similar. The next 5 days looks similar in the progression to Jan 17-23 2010 with a southern Canada ridge and trough in the west and Atlantic the similarities continue as the pacific waves start to undercut the ridge and it pulls north. This was Jan 23-27 2010 And the end result Jan 28-31 2010 and eps projected We got lucky in 2010 that we got hit immediately with 2 waves before the Feb 5 Hecs. But I wonder if this year being warmer might be an issue if we get a wave around Feb 12-15. Then for a few days as the nao peaks we probably see suppression. But it’s not out of the question we get lucky again and something pops immediately but the best chances of a big storm if we play this progression out would be Feb 22-March 7. That’s when we would be in the period that correlates with Feb 5-Feb 20 2010. People forget we missed getting a third big storm by a cows fart later that Feb. 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the extremely warm waters in the western pacific ran interference as the mjo wave propagates through. The spike and delay there was problematic because that forcing correlates with a positive nao. But if we look at the winter as a whole perhaps we are on a 2010 type trajectory just warmer and displaced about 3 weeks later. Obviously we didn’t get a hecs from the first block but we did get two secs and snow on snow. The relax was worse due to a warmer overall thermal profile now v 2010 and the west pac issue but it’s following a similar trajectory and h5 pattern. 2010 was very high on my analogs list when I did the numbers. But no two years are the same. So it’s not shocking if there are similarities but perhaps this yea is warmer overall and the timing is a few weeks off. The progression similarities to 2010 are pretty amazing. Also the way the SPV took repeated hits is similar. The next 5 days looks similar in the progression to Jan 17-23 2010 with a southern Canada ridge and trough in the west and Atlantic the similarities continue as the pacific waves start to undercut the ridge and it pulls north. This was Jan 23-27 2010 And the end result Jan 28-31 2010 and eps projected We got lucky in 2010 that we got hit immediately with 2 waves before the Feb 5 Hecs. But I wonder if this year being warmer might be an issue if we get a wave around Feb 12-15. Then for a few days as the nao peaks we probably see suppression. But it’s not out of the question we get lucky again and something pops immediately but the best chances of a big storm if we play this progression out would be Feb 22-March 7. That’s when we would be in the period that correlates with Feb 5-Feb 20 2010. People forget we missed getting a third big storm by a cows fart later that Feb. Great Post ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where a MECS happened this late? Baltimore has had a lot of 10”+ storms late Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just updated 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Latest GFS output for hour 384. Keep in mind though the latest GFS was an outlier regarding the events leading up to this split. Regardless, the vortex is taking a beating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Blend of the GFS (suppressed to Savannah) and GGEM (cutter to Detroit) is pretty good for us for the v-day threat. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Blend of the GFS (suppressed to Savannah) and GGEM (cutter to Detroit) is pretty good for us for the v-day threat. No digital blue tho! We've lost another one (board member) probably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: No digital blue tho! We've lost another one (board member) probably. Gfs has a clipper right after that that blue’s us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I know it’s way out there, but it’s nice to see the GFS showing multiple ways to get snow around 2/15-16. This time it’s a clipper. @WxUSAF ninja’d me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Folks, is the big dog gonna go woof at 300+ hours on the operational GFS???!?!?! IDFC and IDFK, but I want some of that sweet sweet digital blue 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs fumbles the HECS chance, but lots of potential on this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Folks, is the big dog gonna go woof at 300+ hours on the operational GFS???!?!?! IDFC and IDFK, but I want some of that sweet sweet digital blue Yeah maybe if you replace that Low in Canada with a High. Otherwise that setup is junk. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Here's the PD threat There is a low in SE Canada, but there is also a 1043mb High in south-central Canada, so the average of those two areas right now is 1021mb. Maybe that northern stream piece could possibly phase in the perfect scenario as the upper latitude indices are mostly favorable for the general time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, CAPE said: What's probably coming next winter is a Nina. There are variations, just like there are with Ninos. They don't all suck for snow, but a lot of folks in the MA seem to believe that is the case. Exactly right, Nina's don't all suck for snow. 21-22 was a -1.0 Nina. I received 29 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Nina/+QBO can strengthen the 10mb PV, which can make it much more difficult to have -AO conditions, like this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just looking at the AO.. wow, it's suppose to go negative! https://ibb.co/0mY5FQR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Just looking at the AO.. wow, it's suppose to go negative! https://ibb.co/0mY5FQR Welcome to the discussion Chuck Yes, strong -ao at that and trending moreso past few day' progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking +Heights over AK is even better! But that W. Pacific High is starting to encroach on latest guidance.. do you worry about that suffocating the +PNA low? It has been a trend of the last 7 years, especially in February.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking Been looking at this also. Biggest difference I am seeing is the orientation of the height field in the NAO domain. In 2010 that was more flat (W to E?) which allowed for a more 'relaxed' appearance where the STJ was able to come N and hit us. This time around it is a more stout look and more of a N to S orientation which pushes on the flow underneath and is giving us the suppression hints. Maybe this first wave is in fact suppressed. Still a ways out. But even if, perhaps as the NAO pulses around the 23rd and on we get the STJ to pull a little more N. Seeing no signs of the NAO completely vanishing, so that is a plus. Eta: I do know the scale on those maps are off, but even so there is still a notable difference in the nao ridge orientation. Every little bit does matter and can make for a big change at the surface wrt track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro bout to make one hell of a rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 you can see the GEFS eject a wave as the confluence relaxes and the block weakens... the Pacific trough buckles and leads to height rises over the Rockies. this is how you get a big storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I wish we were into rain and warmth. This love of wx we have would be a ton less stressful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro bout to make one hell of a rainstorm. But again, we never expected anything out of this one. Would have been a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GEFS looks pretty loaded to me. Mean track for the 13-15 period is to our south. And then a couple periods with something big potentially after the 18th. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, WxUSAF said: GEFS looks pretty loaded to me. Mean track for the 13-15 period is to our south. And then a couple periods with something big potentially after the 18th. if you think the GEFS is loaded, look at this lmao 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: if you think the GEFS is loaded, look at this lmao And there it is: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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