Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I’ve never seen a 1061 high. Are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Kinda cool to see GFS entomb Atlanta in ice 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Kinda cool to see GFS entomb Atlanta in ice Larry Georgiawx went to heaven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I’ve never seen a 1061 high. Are you kidding me? The whole end of that run was lol But what's interesting is how guidance continues to want to eject an stj wave around the PD period...Interested to see if that continues this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Congrats @GaWx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The whole end of that run was lol But what's interesting is how guidance continues to want to eject an stj wave around the PD period...Interested to see if that continues this week.I like patterns where everything is backed up and stuff moved slow. Easier to consolidate into one biggie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Ji said: I like patterns where everything is backed up and stuff moved slow. Easier to consolidate into one biggie So you'd say in this fantasy run that it looked that way? (That wave looked like sitting under that block for 3 days, lol) P.S. Not trying to overanalyze a fantasy run. I do like to use those to just a rough general idea of what scenarios could work and any consistent clues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Lol the euro was suppressed for vd storm. Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol the euro was suppressed for vd storm. Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk EPS has a track just to the south. Verbatim a little frozen through the region esp NW. GEPS is similar with low track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 0z GEFS for PD 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Looks like maybe something bigger cooking for just beyond- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 0z GEFS for PD I noticed eps ticked up precip for pd tooSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I noticed eps ticked up precip for pd too Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk All 3 ensembles look pretty solid for that window. Still 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 06z gfs suppressed too. I guess if there kd one storm you want showing suppression now...it's this one Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, Ji said: 06z gfs suppressed too. I guess if there kd one storm you want showing suppression now...it's this one Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk It isn't suppressed(assuming you are referring to VD as in your previous post). There are multiple pieces of energy in the NS and SS for the window centered on the 14th and guidance is a bit all over the place resolving the timing and interactions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This is going to be our storm BristowWx! I feel it in my paws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I am I emphatically second that. We are heading into a very incredible pattern. I am getting very excited for you guys later this month and in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Saturday afternoon I predicted that southern suppression would probably be a problem going forward through February because of NS strength. Other factors can also contribute to a generally dryer than normal precipitation pattern. This morning the EPS, CMC and GEFS all support that idea through PD. Always remember, we can sometimes have significant snow with below normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Wonder why Tomer is not as excited as some? Granted, he seems to say moderate snow events likely in the upcoming pattern after mid month, but he states he does not see a historic snowfall pattern based on the current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 SOI continues to tank. Today’s -36 is the largest single day contribution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder why Tomer is not as excited as some? Granted, he seems to say moderate snow events likely in the upcoming pattern after mid month, but he states he does not see a historic snowfall pattern based on the current modeling. He is being objective, laying out the statistical probabilities based on similar patterns. There are never any guarantees, regardless of how historically favorable the pattern might look. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Wonder why Tomer is not as excited as some? Granted, he seems to say moderate snow events likely in the upcoming pattern after mid month, but he states he does not see a historic snowfall pattern based on the current modeling. [/url] It’s hard to snow. If it snowed everytime we had a - nao we’d average 80 a year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This looks beautiful but it’s also suppressive right there. We might need that beast of a block to retro and weaken some. That’s why Feb 22-25 has been and continues to be the best window. Nothing has changed at all. We can snow from one of the waves before. But early on Feb 12-16 temps could be an issue during the transition week. Then from Feb 17-22 suppression could be an issue. Our best chance at a big storm is as the first wave (I think we get multiple pulses and chances with blocking now until late March) fades some and allows one of the pacific waves to amplify. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This looks beautiful but it’s also suppressive right there. We might need that beast of a block to retro and weaken some. That’s why Feb 22-25 has been and continues to be the best window. Nothing has changed at all. We can snow from one of the waves before. But early on Feb 12-16 temps could be an issue during the transition week. Then from Feb 17-22 suppression could be an issue. Our best chance at a big storm is as the first wave (I think we get multiple pulses and chances with blocking now until late March) fades some and allows one of the pacific waves to amplify. The 18-20th window definitely runs the risk of a suppressed track. Plenty of time for corrections with the key features, but it very well may be the storm after that becomes the focus. Crazy how the extended guidance has been locked in on the period centered on the 23rd. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: He is being objective, laying out the statistical probabilities based on similar patterns. There are never any guarantees, regardless of how historically favorable the pattern might look. One flaw in his probabilities is he uses all Greenland high regimes which if you believe (as I know you do) that Ninos are different and special skews the data. I guarantee you our probabilities of a big snow are higher than those numbers in a Nino blocking regime. However what he is doing is probably a smart play. People are all over the snow angle. But especially for NYC the odds of a lot of snow are maybe only 50%. They could be north of the max. They need a shit ton just to get to average. They missed most of the snow we got last month. Odds are decent that get snow but not enough there to recover. And I know from experience NYC snow weenies are a picky crowd. If they get say 15” the rest of the way they will consider this year a total epic fail. So maybe he is angling himself for the win here by playing the other side. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One flaw in his probabilities is he uses all Greenland high regimes which if you believe (as I know you do) that Ninos are different and special skews the data. I guarantee you our probabilities of a big snow are higher than those numbers in a Nino blocking regime. However what he is doing is probably a smart play. People are all over the snow angle. But especially for NYC the odds of a lot of snow are maybe only 50%. They could be north of the max. They need a shit ton just to get to average. They missed most of the snow we got last month. Odds are decent that get snow but not enough there to recover. And I know from experience NYC snow weenies are a picky crowd. If they get say 15” the rest of the way they will consider this year a total epic fail. So maybe he is angling himself for the win here by playing the other side. he does this stuff all the time. he said NW of I-95 would be "favored" for the Feb 2021 blizzard. they were! they got 30" while NYC got 18" lmao like give me a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This looks beautiful but it’s also suppressive right there. We might need that beast of a block to retro and weaken some. That’s why Feb 22-25 has been and continues to be the best window. Nothing has changed at all. We can snow from one of the waves before. But early on Feb 12-16 temps could be an issue during the transition week. Then from Feb 17-22 suppression could be an issue. Our best chance at a big storm is as the first wave (I think we get multiple pulses and chances with blocking now until late March) fades some and allows one of the pacific waves to amplify. this progression looks quite similar to 2016... you had a suppressive 50/50 and a deep trough off of the WC. a wave ejected from the trough as the block decayed, and the trough retrograded and allowed for a transient +PNA. the rest is history 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6z GEFS For 2 weeks out this is an impressive surface plot, and pretty indicative of what we want to see for an impending east coast winter storm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: He is being objective, laying out the statistical probabilities based on similar patterns. There are never any guarantees, regardless of how historically favorable the pattern might look. It's good to be rational and objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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