stormtracker Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Damn I hate that rainstorm on the Euro at 198, but I think we need it perhaps? On the other hand, I think it's amusing and kind of exciting how these models wildly differ from their own previous runs at H5, some even starting at like 150 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 2 hours ago, AtlanticWx said: i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao Not even a place like Mammoth Lakes would be enough for me. I was so damn obsessed with snow they thew a huge keg party when I left north VA in 2018. Not even 5000 inches of snow a winter would be enough for me. I am a TERMINAL snow obsession case with urgent intervention indicated. I was like this when I was only five, lol. Snow is like money and terrific sex. You can never get enough!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: Positive news for WB 6Z GEFS, cold air gets reestablished President's weekend. Nice.. 49 degrees instead of 52 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn I hate that rainstorm on the Euro at 198, but I think we need it perhaps? Take my 3 inches before it changes over....WB 12Z EURO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 The 12z GEFS looks cold for Feb 19-20, with a new signal to have a block in the Arctic Circle north of Alaska! https://ibb.co/nL3YXtw Now it's a matter of amplifying the STJ, because we have two perfect low positions in the 50/50 spot and south of the Gulf of Alaska. That High pressure north of Alaska though is called -EP/NH and has a strong tendency to be a cold pattern: H5 https://ibb.co/m09t85m US Surface Temps https://ibb.co/gwg8WWB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: now this is more like it Their analogs keep the cold around for a while. This is up to Day+15 https://ibb.co/yhjBLNZ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The SOI continues its tanking, which it has been doing for the last several days. Here’s the latest. That fits the double blocking pattern https://ibb.co/2P1Pjdt Higher precip in the SW: https://ibb.co/Fxv790Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 we don't live in alaska i don't know why anyone would expect or even want 8 weeks of wall to wall wintry conditions Allow me to show you my home in northern Wyoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1754233821820559430?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated I would say we get something before then. The unretrograded N. Pacific low in the Gulf of Alaska is really a recipe for a monster, if everything times right. Look at how the Euro amped up this pre-Valentines wave. https://ibb.co/tLxxhB9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 ENOUGH. Stock up now. Stop whining...and get a good load of dynamite. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated Weeklies from today are maintaining that potent storm signal centered at the 23rd/24th. From what I can tell, that signal has been there in some form on the weeklies since it was 30 or so days out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Weeklies from today are maintaining that potent storm signal centered at the 23rd/24th. From what I can tell, that signal has been there in some form on the weeklies since it was 30 or so days out. you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots Wow. That's crazy for 20 days out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots I'm skeptical that it is physically possible to accurately pick up a wave that far out. I guess we'll find out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Good post 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Continued improvement today with a dropping - AO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Pattern has legs deep into March 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Impressive for 30 days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 It feels like we're approaching the last battle, the new normal "base state" versus an extremely favorable synoptic pattern. I know it takes luck but if it fails to deliver it will be a painful blow. Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 lol, and like I said...h5 vastly different from 12z run of the GFS...As The Models Turn. Let's see what this episode brings. Not much change in sensible weather for us so far, so nothing exciting. Just noting the wild run to run changes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Interesting changes on the GFS..rainstorm where there wasn't one before, but a s/w scooting to our south...not sure it wouldn't take much change to make it watch worthy? @CAPE et all can chime in on that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 Nice -EPO popping at hr210.. we'll probably start the cold pattern around Valentines Day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 WB 18Z GFS fantasy range digital snow has appeared!!! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2024 Share Posted February 4, 2024 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS fantasy range digital snow has appeared!!! Huge rates lol. Snows for 30 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 GFS op is just a continuation of the seasons long theme….active with a number of systems to look at, but marginal to crappy temps. Even at the end of the run, there are 50s/60s in the middle of the country on the way to OBY. I get it….LR looks promising on ensembles. That doesn’t always translate, but hopefully it will this yr. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 I was not aware how dramatic the North America snow cover has declined. Pretty remarkable. Interesting post by @bluewave below. < The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. > 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 I don’t know if you guys realize this but we just had a close miss. This could have been us if the omega block was displaced 500 miles west. (It was that weird clipper that dived from the NW and it was DOA when it got here, but it went nuclear as soon as it went neg tilt before Nova) At least we have another shot later this month 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now