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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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42 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Read the room. Many/most here would absolutely love that. 

personally i wouldn't want to have to shovel every few days and have schools closed for ~4 days like we had that one wintry week in january every week but that's just me! 

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2 hours ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

Not even a place like Mammoth Lakes would be enough for me. I was so damn obsessed  with snow they thew a huge keg party when I left north VA in 2018. Not even 5000 inches of snow a winter would be enough for me. I am a TERMINAL snow obsession case with urgent intervention indicated.  I was like this when I was only five, lol.

Snow is like money and terrific sex. You can never get enough!!!

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The 12z GEFS looks cold for Feb 19-20, with a new signal to have a block in the Arctic Circle north of Alaska!

https://ibb.co/nL3YXtw

Now it's a matter of amplifying the STJ, because we have two perfect low positions in the 50/50 spot and south of the Gulf of Alaska. 

That High pressure north of Alaska though is called -EP/NH and has a strong tendency to be a cold pattern:

H5 https://ibb.co/m09t85m

US Surface Temps https://ibb.co/gwg8WWB

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12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated

I would say we get something before then. The unretrograded N. Pacific low in the Gulf of Alaska is really a recipe for a monster, if everything times right. 

Look at how the Euro amped up this pre-Valentines wave. https://ibb.co/tLxxhB9

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39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated

1708344000-NvPMMKgI5RU.webp.edb0ed5c986830c731b18cf53ca686f9.webp

Weeklies from today are maintaining that potent storm signal centered at the 23rd/24th. From what I can tell, that signal has been there in some form on the weeklies since it was 30 or so days out. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-mslp_anom-8732800.thumb.png.6c0f23c36166d6762220ebdc0659912c.png

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10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Weeklies from today are maintaining that potent storm signal centered at the 23rd/24th. From what I can tell, that signal has been there in some form on the weeklies since it was 30 or so days out. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-mslp_anom-8732800.thumb.png.6c0f23c36166d6762220ebdc0659912c.png

you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots

IMG_4579.thumb.gif.be32cc2c6ec79cf759099b3f869bb85a.gif

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots

IMG_4579.thumb.gif.be32cc2c6ec79cf759099b3f869bb85a.gif

I'm skeptical that it is physically possible to accurately pick up a wave that far out.  I guess we'll find out.

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It feels like we're approaching the last battle, the new normal "base state" versus an extremely favorable synoptic pattern. I know it takes luck but if it fails to deliver it will be a painful blow.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

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GFS op is just a continuation of the seasons long theme….active with a number of systems to look at, but marginal to crappy temps. Even at the end of the run, there are 50s/60s in the middle of the country on the way to OBY. I get it….LR looks promising on ensembles. That doesn’t always translate, but hopefully it will this yr.

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I was not aware how dramatic the North America snow cover has declined. Pretty remarkable.    

Interesting post by @bluewave below. 

<

The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. 
 

C6100126-DBE1-4244-BD41-E9CFC938CFF1.png.26f537b312eb62556d9d879e2aa54c83.png
6E660604-6694-43B7-9888-ED942A12D32F.thumb.png.a7bcca6a246c9c3e9f98006bd95c4faa.png

A438185B-6BCF-4F6F-B1F6-DE28A517C9A9.thumb.png.37b5f756e3bb1b89b4f2b1f447f1ab92.png

 

>

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