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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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Take one week at a time to keep expectations in check.  No snow this week.  VD storm on life support week 2.  My focus is now on  President's week.

This is why we lose people. We’re looking 3 weeks ahead (fine… 2.5) and have been tracking epic patterns for weeks.

I think it’s actually a credit to modeling that I’m starting to go insane. We’ve seen this look for so long you’d swear up and down it’s been 15 days away for a month. And it’s still 15 days away.
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:


This is why we lose people. We’re looking 3 weeks ahead (fine… 2.5) and have been tracking epic patterns for weeks.

I think it’s actually a credit to modeling that I’m starting to go insane. We’ve seen this look for so long you’d swear up and down it’s been 15 days away for a month. And it’s still 15 days away.

Yeah, that's the thing.  We know it's coming, we're just impatient.  Personally, I don't want to see any big storm beyond 200 hours, so I don't mind not seeing anything right now.  I get the excitement of seeing it tho.

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The pattern will change and most normal people will not even notice it unless there is alot of snow. 35-40 is not going to impress anyone and people will call it a bust

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:


This is why we lose people. We’re looking 3 weeks ahead (fine… 2.5) and have been tracking epic patterns for weeks.

I think it’s actually a credit to modeling that I’m starting to go insane. We’ve seen this look for so long you’d swear up and down it’s been 15 days away for a month. And it’s still 15 days away.

The sooner you realize models are clueless beyond a few days the less you'll pay attention to that nonsense and maintain your sanity..

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7 hours ago, Ji said:

The pattern will change and most normal people will not even notice it unless there is alot of snow. 35-40 is not going to impress anyone and people will call it a bust

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

This is why I'm not engaged. I don't doubt a good snow pattern showing up (I'm as certain as anyone) but without snow it will feel like average boring late winter. Chilly in the wind, warm in the sun, daylight dinners and frosty mornings. If we were tracking an arctic blast like 2015, I'd be a laser. 

Once I see something that has higher odds than another longshot letdown, I'll be locked and loaded. Maybe this month, maybe March, or maybe next winter lol

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You guys are gonna get demolished.  I can feel it in my bones. It may happen several times, too. You are DUE. It's coming.

Do NOT forget the Scraff Beer Fridge Index. Bolster it by stockin up on 7700 IPAs. Get five fridges and stock up but good.

Let's bring these snowstorms home and put the Reaper out of business for good. We've got this!

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just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too

i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough

1231430529_gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240-384(1).thumb.gif.66e6a8bd72285d35165f430c18b285b9.gif

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9 hours ago, Ji said:

The pattern will change and most normal people will not even notice it unless there is alot of snow. 35-40 is not going to impress anyone and people will call it a bust

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger.

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27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger.

Some of these comments (especially by those who should know better) are getting to be a real snooze-fest in this thread.  Put that crap in Banter or the Panic Room.  Sure, the "big snow" forecasts might not materialize in reality but can't we just let things evolve and see where things go?  Rather than go "OMG, if we don't get X number of inches this year everything is doomed for years!"  Even if we get a couple of solid storms and/or a HECS-level event.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too

i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough

1231430529_gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240-384(1).thumb.gif.66e6a8bd72285d35165f430c18b285b9.gif

At this point I’m wondering if the Feb 19-20 system is just the appetizer for the next one. We might get something from it, or at least reinforce the cold air from that point on

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger.

Yep.  I have 7.5" for the winter.  A good chance I don't even make double-digits.  At least last year featured a notable Christmas cold snap.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger.

that week in january was objectively the best looking at the AWSSI values at the three airports from the past 7 years and even for all time it ranked within the top 1-2% of weeks winter-wise

if people are complaining about a week like that then maybe u shld move somewhere else cuz ur expectations are way too high

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5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

that week in january was objectively the best looking at the AWSSI values at the three airports from the past 7 years and even for all time it ranked within the top 1-2% of weeks winter-wise

if people are complaining about a week like that then maybe u shld move somewhere else cuz ur expectations are way too high

He's not complaining about the week.  He's complaining that it's the only week.  What about the other 8 weeks of this winter, how do they rank?

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2 hours ago, Jebman said:

You guys are gonna get demolished.  I can feel it in my bones. It may happen several times, too. You are DUE. It's coming.

Do NOT forget the Scraff Beer Fridge Index. Bolster it by stockin up on 7700 IPAs. Get five fridges and stock up but good.

Let's bring these snowstorms home and put the Reaper out of business for good. We've got this!

What I love about Jeb’s consistent positivity is it’s JUST AS REAL and appropriate as anyone consistently writing “I’m not sure” (anyone can say that lol) or “this is gonna bust!!”. Keep it up Jeb -thank God you’re not a DEB!! Hahahaha!!

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest MJO.  I am hopeful that as we approach President Day timeframe this continues to amp into 8 heading into 1.

IMG_3089.png

Yeah, that's a stronger MJO 8 signal.

Normally, I want it weaker and inside COD. But in this case, we don't want it to collapse into COD and then reemerge into the warm phases. So for this year, we want it to stay stronger as we circle through the cold phases. It may not contribute to giving us deep arctic air, but we don't need it to get that cold even in late February. 

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