Alfoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 20 minutes ago, Alfoman said: While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit? On this note - interesting progression of the snow outputs on the GFS Ens the past few runs. While it is likely skewed by a few members that bomb out, nice to see a strengthening of the output along the MA coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Tuesday is dead as a door nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 You could see the 12z GFS lining us up at about hour 300 for the hit that comes at around 348...right at the start of the real period of interest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Tuesday is dead as a door nail.I don’t know if I look at that and see dead… I see long shot. Seen a few folks on Twitter arguing it’s trending better. We’ve got a couple days to make something happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 That was a pretty interesting 12z op GFS run. Starting to see the nice 500mb plots in 350+ hour land on the ensembles result in precious, beautiful, digital blue. And vodka cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 absurd split flow 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: absurd split flow I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS. Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see! And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Oh hell yeah it’s back- the Sistine Chapel https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752704836628615675?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 At least the gfs wasn’t a snore fest. We be tracking in a week or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS. Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see! And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge. Wave breaking to reinforce the -NAO and a pretty consistent 50/50. The ridging out west is really pretty, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, snowfan said: At least the gfs wasn’t a snore fest. We be tracking in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Oh hell yeah it’s back- the Sistine Chapel https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752704836628615675?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A Arctic hounds!!!! Highs in the mid 30s. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: You could see the 12z GFS lining us up at about hour 300 for the hit that comes at around 348...right at the start of the real period of interest. There's northern energy swinging around the backside of that trough that snows on us that comes fairly close to phasing in. With the NAO and 50/50 maybe that would work...even at the beginning of the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 At 384...congrats northern 1/3 of Old Mexico! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 What I really like about the ensembles is that it doesn't take long for us to get cold once we get into the pattern change. Seems like it took several weeks in Late December into January to finally get temps right. This happens pretty quickly after the pattern reshuffle and we get the PNA ridge to go up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 At 384...congrats northern 1/3 of Old Mexico!DC’s climate these days is basically the same as Brownsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: DC’s climate these days is basically the same as Brownsville So then 384 is the same as congrats Charlotte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 “Wave breaking” has easily won the 2023-2024 buzzword of the year award. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: “Wave breaking” has easily won the 2023-2024 buzzword of the year award. You use it, you sound smart. I'm leaning into (barf) the phrase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 20 minutes ago, mattie g said: At 384...congrats northern 1/3 of Old Mexico! Brownsville dealing with suppression issues 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 9 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Brownsville dealing with suppression issues It’s a hard damn world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Arctic hounds!!!! Highs in the mid 30s. death and destruction coming as we try to dodge 29 degree wind chills and light snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 If you look at the 850 mb temp charts...the can is being kicked....in the opposite way today v yesterday 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 For Feb 6th, 72hr into the 12z Euro, seeing some good confluence.....over the bahamas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 So there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in timeBoth models look exactly the same lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time Amazing agreement at that range. I prefer to GEFS look a little more with the placement of the lower heights along the eastern seaboard, but I wouldn't kick the GEPS out of bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 So you’re telling me the ingredients for a big storm are going to come together right as I have an international flight lined up? This hobby… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Both models look exactly the same lol I am not sure you could draw that CMC ENS any better if you were trying to describe perfection. seriously screen saver worthy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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