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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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20 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit? 

On this note - interesting progression of the snow outputs on the GFS Ens the past few runs. While it is likely skewed by a few members that bomb out, nice to see a strengthening of the output along the MA coast :popcorn:

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-1706702400-1707307200-1707307200-40.gif

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absurd split flow

1585929326_gfs_uv250_namer_65(1).thumb.png.9f8954870bfe241c79190ebf1300f293.png

I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS.  Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see!  And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge.

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

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3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS.  Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see!  And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge.

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

Wave breaking to reinforce the -NAO and a pretty consistent 50/50. The ridging out west is really pretty, as well.

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22 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You could see the 12z GFS lining us up at about hour 300 for the hit that comes at around 348...right at the start of the real period of interest.

There's northern energy swinging around the backside of that trough that snows on us that comes fairly close to phasing in. With the NAO and 50/50 maybe that would work...even at the beginning of the pattern?

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What I really like about the ensembles is that it doesn't take long for us to get cold once we get into the pattern change. Seems like it took several weeks in Late December into January to finally get temps right. This happens pretty quickly after the pattern reshuffle and we get the PNA ridge to go up. 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time

Amazing agreement at that range.

I prefer to GEFS look a little more with the placement of the lower heights along the eastern seaboard, but I wouldn't kick the GEPS out of bed.

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