Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[CAPE]

We going get PD III

 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We going get PD III

 

 

 

Rather consistent signal there, been there for several days.  

 

 

[notvirga!]

57 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Doug K. Forecast is really going to come down to these next 4 weeks or so. He went big on his winter snowfall forecast.

Make or break for him.

Of course he canceled last winter with his snow fall forecast and was right. Let's hope he's right about  this year.

I believe he has my area in the 38 to 50 range so I've got some work to do to get there.

He’s a good forecaster. I watched his facebook weather 101 yesterday and he talked a lot about the pattern change mid month. He still seems pretty optimistic about our snow chances—as he should be. 

[frd]

The - AO looks even better today.    

 

[frd]

Wonder if we tap into some of this arctic air later in Feb.  Brrr. 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-NAO/-AO really showing up as a beast on the 12z GEFS

https://ibb.co/YR9gdSH

I haven't seen it cover such a large area of the Polar domain in a long time.. (It's a 384hr model though). It seems like we've been at 384hr for a while, but they are getting better day-by-day. 

The problem with NAO getting too strong is, it can suppress storms. Here's a 0.4-0.5 precip correlation over the Mid Atlantic in February: https://ibb.co/8zrBxYf

That's why a lot of big storms happen when the block lifts out.. But I do think energy in the southern US along the STJ is the sign of a wetter pattern. 

Really a cold pattern though, with the Atlantic ridge connecting with -EPO.. almost all you can ask for..  Still has the near 50/50 low, south of GOA low, central-southern US STJ energy to come east for Feb 19-20. 

[frd]

Interesting 

 

[Weather Will]

Looks like by President's Day weekend we will have cold enough air again.... whether the Gulf moisture is suppressed or comes up the coast the third week of February we will have to wait and see. WB 12Z GEFS

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Looks like by President's Day weekend we will have cold enough air again.... whether the Gulf moisture is suppressed or comes up the coast the third week of February we will have to wait and see. WB 12Z GEFS

Model's also will represent area's drier than average if precip is Snow for obvious reasons as we know. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Interesting 

I've seen a lot of people say "it's propagating or not" (when the 10mb high/low connects with 500mb/surface at Day+0).. but it doesn't really happen like that. Correlations I've found is that no matter what the NAO signature is a 0-day, it has a higher correlation +10-40 days (depending when in the Winter it is), even if it's "making it to the surface" or not at 0-day. The Jan 13-24 10mb warming does have correlation to -NAO conditions ~Feb 3-20 (or sometime around there), just based on 75 years of data. It's not something that can be easily seen "as hitting now or not" at Day-0, although sometimes the mechanism of the 10mb warming stretches all atmospheric layers. 

[stormy]

Finally at 12z the GFS op and GEFS seem to be joining hands to set us up between 360 - 384.

Well established 50/50, steady stream of cold air coming down from northern Canada. Texas/Gulf Coast support both surface and aloft with developing rainfall in the deep south.

[LongRanger]

Euro handles El Nino years better, GFS does well during La Nina

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Jan 13-24 10mb warming does have correlation to -NAO conditions ~Feb 3-20

When do you think the - NAO  starts to relax, because that will be important as it is related to storm potential during the relaxation period.   

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We going get PD III

 

 

CAPE lost his grammar...it may be getting serious folks 

[Yeoman]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Is mid Feb  (10th to 19th) still on or delayed to 20th to 29th? 

Now looking like the 30th

[brooklynwx99]

this year's PV activity looks like the 2010 SSW events, just pushed back a couple weeks

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

When do you think the - NAO  starts to relax, because that will be important as it is related to storm potential during the relaxation period.   

If we have another wave 10mb warming, it may be longer into March.. but we are still in a +nao era, as like 8/42 Winter months lately have come in negative or something like that, and big -NAO's lately have been lasting an average of 8-12 days.  I think it may come up sooner than expected, maybe at the end of February. Then it might go negative again in March. GaWx in the ENSO thread said yesterday's models had Feb 15-16 as the 10mb warming peak, which would favor -NAO ~March 2-7. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this year's PV activity looks like the 2010 SSW events, just pushed back a couple weeks

2010 really is the best analog to this progression.  Just everything is displaced about 2 weeks like you said.  It’s nearly identical in how it’s getting from A-Z in almost every way. I’m just careful throwing that around since it’s literally our snowiest period ever. That took some luck on top of the great pattern. But this has that level of potential. At the least it will be difficult to escape this without a significant snowfall. 

[psuhoffman]

The gefs and eps are coming around to the same blocking look the geps has had just a couple days later. The geps was just 48 hours too fast getting there. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 really is the best analog to this progression.  Just everything is displaced about 2 weeks like you said.  It’s nearly identical in how it’s getting from A-Z in almost every way. I’m just careful throwing that around since it’s literally our snowiest period ever. That took some luck on top of the great pattern. But this has that level of potential. At the least it will be difficult to escape this without a significant snowfall. 

2010 is the last time I saw so much arctic blocking.. easily carrying over from the Atlantic into Alaska with >+100dm everywhere along the way. Now for it to hold as we get closer..

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If we have another wave 10mb warming, it may be longer into March.. but we are still in a +nao era, as like 8/42 Winter months lately have come in negative or something like that, and big -NAO's lately have been lasting an average of 8-12 days.  I think it may come up sooner than expected, maybe at the end of February. Then it might go negative again in March. GaWx in the ENSO thread said yesterday's models had Feb 15-16 as the 10mb warming peak, which would favor -NAO ~March 2-7. 

I tend to think the -nao will flux, it won’t be the beast it looks to peak around Feb 18-20 the whole time, but I doubt it goes positive again for a while. We might just run the table here. 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If we have another wave 10mb warming, it may be longer into March.. but we are still in a +nao era, as like 8/42 Winter months lately have come in negative or something like that, and big -NAO's lately have been lasting an average of 8-12 days.  I think it may come up sooner than expected, maybe at the end of February. Then it might go negative again in March. GaWx in the ENSO thread said yesterday's models had Feb 15-16 as the 10mb warming peak, which would favor -NAO ~March 2-7. 

there isn't a lag this time. the SPV and TPV are coupled quickly looking at NAM plots

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there isn't a lag this time. the SPV and TPV are coupled quickly looking at NAM plots

As we get into March, the typical lag is +10-15 days, vs +45 days in November, but history says that's how it usually happens..  Even in the examples where there would be a monster -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, it would usually come back to spike up later in the allotted time. 

[Weather Will]

JB just blogged on similarities to the Blizzard of 1899, so we are now doomed....  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there isn't a lag this time. the SPV and TPV are coupled quickly looking at NAM plots

I don’t get the lag talk. The lag is when we have a beast of of TPV and need to wait for the SPV to impact it. The TPV is already in the process of collapse due to pacific forcing combined with Atlantic wave breaking. The SPV collapse will simply prevent a quick recovery and foster additional -nao cycles. This is also very similar to 2010 when repeated SPV hits acted in conjunction with troposphere forcing to create a long lasting and extensive blocking regime. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t get the lag talk. The lag is when we have a beast of of TPV and need to wait for the SPV to impact it. The TPV is already in the process of collapse due to pacific forcing combined with Atlantic wave breaking. The SPV collapse will simply prevent a quick recovery and foster additional -nao cycles. This is also very similar to 2010 when repeated SPV hits acted in conjunction with troposphere forcing to create a long lasting and extensive blocking regime. 

You do a lot of researches, it could be worth it sometime to go back through the daily climate composite dataset and compare 10mb to 500mb. I found that negative events (strong 10mb vortex) correlated to +AO at 0-days all times of the Winter, and there was a strong lag-time (+10-45 days whether it was early or late in the Winter), regardless of if, there was a strong -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, for almost all warming events. The linear difference in times of the year with 3x the average -NAO +lag vs initial was a very compelling find, based on 75 years of data. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You do a lot of researches, it could be worth it sometime to go back through the daily climate composite dataset and compare 10mb to 500mb. I found that negative events (strong 10mb vortex) correlated to +AO at 0-days all times of the Winter, and there was a strong lag-time (+10-45 days whether it was early or late in the Winter), regardless of if, there was a strong -NAO the day of the 10mb warming, for almost all warming events. The linear difference with 3x the average -NAO +lag vs initial was a very compelling find. 

How do you even judge a “lag” if the nao is already negative when the SPV weakening happens?  But the point is we don’t need to wait for the SPV to impact the tpv. The fact the SPV is weakening will simply prevent a quick recovery of the tpv. So what if it may or may not cause another crazy block later in March or April. That’s not the most important thing here. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB just blogged on similarities to the Blizzard of 1899, so we are now doomed....  

even if 1899 happened or 1888…winter is still a C-.  One frickin week of winter so far.  C+ if they both happen.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How do you even judge a “lag” if the nao is already negative when the SPV weakening happens?  

A # of composites showing the same thing. Sometimes it would go -250, -250.. -100, 0, -50, -250, -300, -350. But the thing is, there were a lot that went +250, +150, 0, -150, -250, -350... so after like 100 examples, you had a clear time lag that had the highest correlation between 500mb and 10mb (and it was not D+0), the "+time" was about 3x stronger.   There was also not less +time -NAO's if the D+0 nao was negative. 

[AtlanticWx]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We going get PD III

 

 

i also rlly like feb 23-25 when that mega aleutian low ejects a fat trough