Jebman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon. I am all stocked up. I am stoked up, too. This is gonna be really fun! We are going to track this pattern completely to death and the Mid Atlantic is going to get shellacked but good by torrential snows! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 This thread is unbelievable! Some of these posts are so damned hilarious! Double jet signature, I really got a damned good deep belly laugh out of that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Finally seeing hints of a shortwave embedded in the STJ flow moving eastward with surface low pressure developing in the deep south at the end of HH GEFS. Potentially setting us up for PD or a bit beyond. Hints at hour 384. This thread has changed. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 If this doesn't come to fruition, man the meltdowns are gonna be almost worth it. Crow served up as for as far as the eye can see. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 11 minutes ago, IronTy said: If this doesn't come to fruition, man the meltdowns are gonna be almost worth it. Crow served up as for as far as the eye can see. We still beat last year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 16 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We still beat last year Yeah, like I said I’d be disappointed but happy about that mid-Jan wintry week. Both my phone and laptop has 100s of photos and reels to carry me through next winter, which at the moment I consider cancelled. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Historically speaking, these are the 3 main ingredients for a major snowstorm. https://ibb.co/TwM8d7y Now it looks like potentially Feb 19-20, but let's see if the recent trend of less +PNA inside 12-days stops tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I’d do many illegal things to be here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said: My nephew just called me and said.. you gotta see the extended euro. I said it’s a fake storm.. then he said.. “if stormchaserchuck is excited then I am excited” I am excited. We are really in a warm era though. Things need to happen just right. We do have the perfect look at day 15, but let me go over what is normally a +PNA pattern (the main feature right now for that time) Temps: https://ibb.co/68v50zF Precip: https://ibb.co/T8789w8 Sea-level pressure: https://ibb.co/W5SyPpN SLP between here and the coast of -0.3-0.4 is the big deal, and why you get SECS'/MECS' in +PNA patterns.. they bomb over the immediate coastal water. But precip is generally lower, unless you get a big piece in the STJ from, say, El Nino (which is why I'm excited about this particular +pna pattern). The 2std low in texas on Feb 18th is a really good indicator of that for this time, and eventually transferring off the coast with a GOA low and 50/50 low in place... almost perfect generally speaking. Let's just hope this look holds... I don't care so much that the 384hr gfs is not logistically showing a snowstorm right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 46 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d do many illegal things to be here like tresspass? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d do many illegal things to be here . All you need is a passport, a car, and some cash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: I wonder if a thread that was limited to 5 days and inside could be successful? We have threads for specific threats once they are inside 5 days or so. But that’s a different kind of thread. We know what the general pattern is going to be by 5 days. Discussion inside 120 hours focuses on a specific event and the details of that threat not so much pattern generalities. The problem with a permanent day 1-5 thread is they 90% of the time there is no specific threat inside 5 days and so the thread would be dead. like right now. If there was an inside 5 days only thread what would we even be discussing in it today since there is nothing of interest inside 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: All you need is a passport, a car, and some cash For real.. let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We have threads for specific threats once they are inside 5 days or so. But that’s a different kind of thread. We know want the general pattern is going to be by 5 days. Discussion inside 120 hours focuses on a specific event and the details of that threat not so much patter generalities. The problem with a permanent day 1-5 thread is they 90% is the time there is no specific threat inside 5 days and so the thread would be dead most of the time. And the long range models will keep getting more and more accurate, and going out further and further in time! It's the point in the technological revolution we are in. I'm kind of disappointed because manual methods like analog research are no longer as valuable. The GEFS and EPS are still not performing all that great, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: And the long range models will keep getting more and more accurate, and going out further and further in time! I'm kind of disappointed because manual methods like analog research are no longer as valuable. The GEFS and EPS are still not performing all that great, though. EPS has been nailing the long range a lot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: EPS has been nailing the long range a lot this winter. What about January though where it had several runs going back to September of us being -1 to -4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: What about January though where it had several runs going back to September of us being -1 to -4? Monthly temp anomalies are overrated. They can we skewed by a week. The eps nailed the long wave pattern closely. The warm periods were just warmer and skewed the temps. This happens a lot. Mild periods are so warm lately it’s hard to get a cold month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Monthly temp anomalies are overrated. They can we skewed by a week. The eps nailed the long wave pattern closely. The warm periods were just warmer and skewed the temps. This happens a lot. Mild periods are so warm lately it’s hard to get a cold month. Case in point, take away that 80 degree day would lower our Jan average by at least a full degree. We’d have been closer to average 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 29 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Case in point, take away that 80 degree day would lower our Jan average by at least a full degree. We’d have been closer to average It does feel like it's been a colder Winter. A lot of low cumulus, and days in the 30s and 40s. These clouds are really pretty for the last 2 years, and I think we are bringing in a better overall period for snow/cold (although maybe several years, even a decade?, out). It's not the same composition as 2005-2017, where things were melting fast, and not refreezing, a lot of sunny bright days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Serious question...is this like some kid of triple phase look? Or am I just trippin? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I mean...I've been pre-gaming a little and about to head out...i'm just seeing what I want to see...and it'd be a cutter anyway. But it's vastly different than 18z h5. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The GFS is being weird like me at a 100% hetero party. I dunno. H5 is completely different than 18z. Anyway, yall enjoy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Leading up to a triple phaser, or a blizzard, you generally want the N. Hemisphere to be colder anomaly. It's pretty simple, but almost all the major storms have it, days to weeks before, the Hemisphere temps dropped, or were colder than normal overall. Here's before March '93.. this is in the midst of '48-20 averages (93 is 65% of the way through).. colder hemisphere https://ibb.co/w6wRMH9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean...I've been pre-gaming a little and about to head out...i'm just seeing what I want to see...and it'd be a cutter anyway. But it's vastly different than 18z h5. meh You just go out and enjoy yourself. If you need me I’ll be upstairs asleep.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Crazy ass GFS has a Vday storm-ish thing going. It’s in La La land tho. Ok I’m done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 0z GFS builds the +PNA at day 11! 952mb https://ibb.co/QMsMGYn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 0z GFS builds the +PNA at day 11! 952mbhttps://ibb.co/QMsMGYnTropical tidbits is free bro 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Crazy ass GFS has a Vday storm-ish thing going. It’s in La La land tho. Ok I’m done. Who says we gotta wait 21 days? Gfs might be right. We might have a V-day hecs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 0z EPS and GEFS are more impressive with the -NAO. The energy for the potential storm that the extended products have been hinting at for around the 23rd can be seen in the southwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 In the near term, around mid month is still on the table for at least part of the region. Latest GEFS and GEPS runs suggest a low track further south than the EPS, which has a more NS dominant look. Temps look marginal on the mean. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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