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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place 

IMG_4543.thumb.gif.f2df05ebdcca194fd1b9e1c6ba685657.gif

 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re also getting SPV weakening that’s coupled. we could be in through early March

 

9 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Oh, and don't y'all worry one teeny tiny bit about the coming snow. I'll be traveling out to CA and back the 23rd- Mar 6th. I'm SURE 3 ft of snow will fall during that period. Least I have a neighbor that keeps my weather checked and cat fed while I am gone lol. 

Every one of you are super welcome, lol. 

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1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago..  I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time. 

My nephew just called me and said.. you gotta see the extended euro.  I said it’s a fake storm.. then he said..  “if stormchaserchuck is excited then I am excited”

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks.  The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March. 

 

GFWvYJ0XwAAIQtS.png.b96a3fcf2365e2dbf5a46012bc920556.png

 

This is cool graphic, can you provide a link?  I would like to bookmark it.  Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:


It’s called the storm thread

Of which, we don't have one to track, so we look ahead to the future and take stock in what's ahead, even if it is 30-45 days in the future.  This is supposed to be a fun hobby so I'm baffled by the negative commentary against snow maps of said future. Everyone knows (or should know) they're for entertainment, if not wishcasting. But for cryin' out loud, let's enjoy the pretty colors together in this otherwise polarized society.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

I’m just wondering what the barometric pressure difference is between Erie and Appomattox. When we know that, we can make an informed call about what might happen two weeks from now.

But seriously…this is making us all pretty pumped for good reason. We’re staring down the barrel of a loaded pattern in prime-ish climo, so let’s fucking go for it and end this Nino with a bang.

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2 hours ago, frd said:

No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks.  The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March. 

 

GFWvYJ0XwAAIQtS.png.b96a3fcf2365e2dbf5a46012bc920556.png

 

Thanks for posting this. The dashed red line that doesn’t come back up to the ERA5 mean until late March is from 2023 and isn’t the GEFS forecast. GEFS is all in green  and ends on Feb 18. One member plunges to -20. It appears that ~30% go <0 by Feb 18, a significant increase vs recent runs. Trends have clearly been going toward a major SSW over the last few days. The earliest reverse is Feb 15. The mean likely gets down to ~+4.

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Finally seeing hints of a shortwave embedded in the STJ flow moving eastward with surface low pressure developing in the deep south at the end of HH GEFS. Potentially setting us up for PD or a bit beyond.

1708279200-y5AT5IIlJbc.png1708279200-0SOUdJz1l5M.png

Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon. 

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