WEATHER53 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Let’s hope so .Feb 5/6 looked just like this mid Jan. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I can’t believe we are looking at 480 hr snow maps. This has to be a new low. 2 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 51 minutes ago, Ji said: We have had several chances for mecs/hecs in the past several years In your world, even July is a good time for a MECS/HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: weeklies seem to be keying in on the 23rd. the fact that you can actually see a wave from the STJ deepen at this range is nuts. retrograding block and 50/50 in place 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: you’re also getting SPV weakening that’s coupled. we could be in through early March 9 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Oh, and don't y'all worry one teeny tiny bit about the coming snow. I'll be traveling out to CA and back the 23rd- Mar 6th. I'm SURE 3 ft of snow will fall during that period. Least I have a neighbor that keeps my weather checked and cat fed while I am gone lol. Every one of you are super welcome, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks. The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I can’t believe we are looking at 480 hr snow maps. This has to be a new low. I wonder if a thread that was limited to 5 days and inside could be successful? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago.. I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time. My nephew just called me and said.. you gotta see the extended euro. I said it’s a fake storm.. then he said.. “if stormchaserchuck is excited then I am excited” 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Let’s hope so .Feb 5/6 looked just like this mid Jan. No it didn't, lol I mean two weeks ago the good posters in here were saying we'd likely have to kick that week. Nothing else has changed (and appears to be getting better!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 20 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I can’t believe we are looking at 480 hr snow maps. This has to be a new low. Kudos to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Yah, when I show the snow maps I get a bunch of gahooee, just like work, either in the inner circle or you are not..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 30 minutes ago, frd said: No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks. The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March. This is cool graphic, can you provide a link? I would like to bookmark it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Ops are starting to consistently show something like this similar in the long range. Patience people. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: No, that's the control run. It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45. Thank you. That's what I was trying to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I’m beginning to think this guy may be a bit of a hypester - lol https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1753481106576253429?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I wonder if a thread that was limited to 5 days and inside could be successful?It’s called the storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 52 minutes ago, stormy said: Kudos to you In am not criticizing. It was worth a posting and I am excited about the potential. I am just pointing out that we are in our climatological high point of our snowstorm chances and the only thing we get on the operational models is a 480 hour mega hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just checked the calendar for something work related… and couldn’t help but notice that Feb 23-25 falls on a weekend. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s called the storm thread Of which, we don't have one to track, so we look ahead to the future and take stock in what's ahead, even if it is 30-45 days in the future. This is supposed to be a fun hobby so I'm baffled by the negative commentary against snow maps of said future. Everyone knows (or should know) they're for entertainment, if not wishcasting. But for cryin' out loud, let's enjoy the pretty colors together in this otherwise polarized society. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window. I’m just wondering what the barometric pressure difference is between Erie and Appomattox. When we know that, we can make an informed call about what might happen two weeks from now. But seriously…this is making us all pretty pumped for good reason. We’re staring down the barrel of a loaded pattern in prime-ish climo, so let’s fucking go for it and end this Nino with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Finally seeing hints of a shortwave embedded in the STJ flow moving eastward with surface low pressure developing in the deep south at the end of HH GEFS. Potentially setting us up for PD or a bit beyond. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 More of a -NAO building west towards Baffin at the end of the GEFS run too. Seeing the beginning of a legit block developing with the anomalously low heights in the 50-50 region. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, frd said: No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks. The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March. Thanks for posting this. The dashed red line that doesn’t come back up to the ERA5 mean until late March is from 2023 and isn’t the GEFS forecast. GEFS is all in green and ends on Feb 18. One member plunges to -20. It appears that ~30% go <0 by Feb 18, a significant increase vs recent runs. Trends have clearly been going toward a major SSW over the last few days. The earliest reverse is Feb 15. The mean likely gets down to ~+4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Finally seeing hints of a shortwave embedded in the STJ flow moving eastward with surface low pressure developing in the deep south at the end of HH GEFS. Potentially setting us up for PD or a bit beyond. Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon. 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 BristowWx isn't going to make it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon. Many won't make it. The few will see it through. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Tomer says see you in 2025 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1753582543599714764?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Tomer says see you in 2025 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1753582543599714764?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg Sucks for NYC-BOS. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon. Oh this? Miller A baby. 5 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: Oh this? Miller A baby. Congrats, Jacksonville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 14 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Congrats, Jacksonville. And Short Pump. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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