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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change

Nice stretch of dry weather over the next week or so with temps near normal. I'll enjoy it and get some outside pre-Spring work done, and prepare for the deep winter period that will follow. B)

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No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change

It does seem early on the ridge out west looks more broad on the ensembles than it did previously , it does get there but there was a slight delay there over last few runs. Not a big deal yet. Still looking on track for the most part


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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice stretch of dry weather over the next week or so with temps near normal. I'll enjoy it and get some outside pre-Spring work done, and prepare for the deep winter period that will follow. B)

might have missed my snow/seed window.  I wanted to throw it down before the last snow we had let the snow melt push it down....thought eh we will have a lot more snow cover days...will we?  looking at the GEFS this morning h5 looks good...2m temp anomaly doesn't

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

might have missed my snow/seed window.  I wanted to throw it down before the last snow we had let the snow melt push it down....thought eh we will have a lot more snow cover days...will we?  looking at the GEFS this morning h5 looks good...2m temp anomaly doesn't

It's takes till about the 15th to get the 2M temps to average/ below average. 

850s look good from the 15th on ward.

Patience still needed for a couple more weeks. Hopefully in another week we can be tracking discrete threats by then.

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice stretch of dry weather over the next week or so with temps near normal. I'll enjoy it and get some outside pre-Spring work done, and prepare for the deep winter period that will follow. B)

Ditto, spent 6 hours or so outside working in the yard yesterday. 

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's takes till about the 15th to get the 2M temps to average/ below average. 

850s look good from the 15th on ward.

Patience still needed for a couple more weeks. Hopefully in another week we can be tracking discrete threats by then.

Yep, 850 starts to flip BN on the 14th - remarkably consistent over the past week’s worth of runs. Then by the 16th they get pretty cold. 

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Oh, and don't y'all worry one teeny tiny bit about the coming snow. I'll be traveling out to CA and back the 23rd- Mar 6th. I'm SURE 3 ft of snow will fall during that period. Least I have a neighbor that keeps my weather checked and cat fed while I am gone lol. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Nice stretch of dry weather over the next week or so with temps near normal. I'll enjoy it and get some outside pre-Spring work done, and prepare for the deep winter period that will followB)

Am I hearing a mid-winter lawn mowing to keep the grass as short as humanly possible

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Looks like a great day to turn off the TV and get outside.

Good day to go out for a nice long run. I love cold, but I hate exercising out in it, and the rowing machine is getting a little boring

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

May I recommend swimming, its running without the joint damage

Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open

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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open

Probably should take it to banter but what were your best strokes? Mine is freestyle plus IM/Fly, we have Highschool regions tonight and Im seated top 5 in 100 free and top 8 in 50 free, not a lot of pressure though because I managed to get my state cuts last weekend at districts. 

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Just now, mattie g said:

Long-distance swimming is just so boring, though. My wife swims three days per week, but I just can't do it.

Thats exactly why I'm a sprinter but for practice we usually do 4-6 thousand yards (8 times a week) and the main way to keep it entertaining is not swimming alone/set variation, without either of those two things I would've gone crazy long ago. It also helps to get a song/playlist stuck in your head or have a strong internal monolog. 

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10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open

I have always been a runner but got a peloton due to some unforeseen circumstances that arose that prevented me from running on certain days.  I was so skeptical at first but peloton cycling is incredibly efficient, you can get a phenomenal workout in 30 minutes.  Now I split peloton cycling and running and I’m fitter than I ever was when I ran exclusively.

 

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I was a swimmer and a runner growing up. I found that swimming got me in the best shape. I could be swimming regularly and not run at all and then go for a long run without any problems. Flip that around and that was not the case at all. Swimming is a rather lonely existence, however. At least with running, your head is above water and you are outside. You can talk to people if you have a running friend and look around. With swimming, you get none of that. It's a good sport but I kinda wish I had switched to another sport sooner than I did. Cycling/spinning is hard but it doesn't get me in the shape that running or swimming does. I find those to be much more of a full-body workout than cycling. I love a good run when snow is falling.

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24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Probably should take it to banter but what were your best strokes? Mine is freestyle plus IM/Fly, we have Highschool regions tonight and Im seated top 5 in 100 free and top 8 in 50 free, not a lot of pressure though because I managed to get my state cuts last weekend at districts. 

Nice, you're doing great! Mine was free and breast, and like you I was a sprinter. 50/100m events were in my wheelhouse. Made it to state in my junior and senior years

Now all this discussion about swimming is starting to get me motivated about it again! Not gonna dive into Masters or anything, but just to get things going a little bit more. I sit too much for work!

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May I recommend swimming, its running without the joint damage

My swimming skills are “boogie boarding” level, but I found mountain biking (or biking in general) to be a great complement to basketball bc both can be HIIT/cardio. The benefit of biking is that it’s generally low impact (aside from the gnarly stuff). Soccer thru elem and basketball from middle school on def increased the wear and tear on my back/knees/ankles as I’ve gotten older.
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

At this point temps are conceivably cold enough to snow, but most of the energy is from the NS. That is a function of the coupled PNA/EPO in conjunction with the developing -NAO, and the stretched TPV in between.

STJ looks poised to eject some waves eastward beyond this period.

1708106400-YoerKLLq9rg.png

1708106400-3z6kw1OPHNg.png

The look at the end of the ensembles is the loading pattern for all our big snowstorms.  My guess is we start seeing some very snowy solutions in a few days when the period after starts coming into range.  

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1 hour ago, Shad said:

are we kicking the can to the 18th + now ?

no but our best opportunities at a snowstorm are usually as the pattern matures and as a block starts to relax not as its developing.  The transition period was always Feb 10-15 and that still looks right.  But just because the pattern starts then does not mean it snows immediately.  Unfortunately we typically snow more towards the end of a favorable blocking regime than towards the start.  This is for several reasons.  At the start of the pattern the airmass is usually problematic.  The boundary is further north.  It can often take a wave or two to pull the boundary south.  Then as the blocking sets in often we can get a period of suppression even.  As the block starts to relax some makes sense, the boundary is to our south and the relaxing flow can allow a wave to amplify as it crosses the country with cold in place.  That is the simple path to snow here.  Often we need simple.  

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