IronTy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: John is far too handsome to be a real weather weenie. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, IronTy said: John is far too handsome to be a real weather weenie. John's been around since the Eastern days. Can confirm he is a true weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: John's been around since the Eastern days. Can confirm he is a true weenie. I don't know what that is but I'll take your word for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The 10th-15th looks NS dominant-doesn't mean we can't score a bit of frozen in that window. Once the h5 pattern really starts getting good just beyond mid month, we may have to wait a few more days before the STJ gets juiced up again and starts sending waves our way. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes...weird and illogical it is You feel like the "luck" is worse then. Not that bad luck can't happen anytime in winter, but in a less logical lense...good luck has never happened that week at all! (Even the epic 2010 couldn't do it...a storm missed us the last week of THAT Feb). And the other example you mentioned about a great setup but a weird Fujiwara thing for no reason? Until something works out I'll be paranoid until it finally does, lol There are lots of other periods without a HECS in winter. Baltimore has only had nine 20” storms in 135 years of records! Only 2 weeks have had more than 1 such storm. There has only been 1 20” storm the 3rd week of Feb. logically what makes you think that one fluke storm is somehow indicative that it can happen that week and not the next? What if that one storm in 2003 hasn’t happened. Say something minor and stupid had gone wrong. Would we now be discussing whether a hecs can happen after Feb 13 instead? But that one time in 135 years moves the date? And what about the fact there was a 20” storm in March? Why is that one storm a fluke but the PD one isn’t? They are both just one storm. Explain the logic. Additionally there have been 11 storms of 10”+ in Baltimore after Feb 20. If you look at the daily snowfall records snowfall does not fall off a cliff after PD. That happens around Mid March. The frequency of 10” storms remains pretty steady until then. There must aren’t many 20” level storms. Actually the data supports the highest probability of them falls between Jan 22 and Feb 13. 5 of the 9 fall during those 3 weeks. That is a definite trend. But 4 fall outside and 1 after the cutoff date you’re arbitrarily crating. I have no idea why that one lone storm Feb 19 somehow makes that the cutoff in your head despite plenty of 10” and one 20” storm falling after. What the data indicates objectively is that our best snow climo is definitely Jan 20-Feb 12 or so. Yes the highest probability of a huge snow is within those 3 weeks. But that outside that a 10” storm and even a hecs is possible anytime between Mid Dec and Late March and if the right pattern were to present itself it’s not impossible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 https://x.com/griteater/status/1753203156131950666?s=46&t=Qy0XCAzUjdru-Yl_ZvoBWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 This thread needs a resident therapist 4 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 This thread needs a resident therapist I think it’s you. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmyers1204 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This thread needs a resident therapist Or a happy ending 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I think the writing is on the wall for this winter unfortunately. We got until the end of the month to score a climo snowfall then it's over. I still think we score at least one big one before its over. Would just align with enso. We will get one to work out. It might only stick around for a few days, But whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I feel the Northeast/Mid Atlantic from central VA up to Boston gets one solid snowstorm, but the question is who gets the best. ENSO signals the Mid Atlantic, and the pattern may be favorable into March. Some of the best storms are in mid-late Feb and March all-time, so I wouldn't be discounting a late season shelling. I just want to see it snow. Staying power is the least of my worries at this point. Feb 2006 was a shelling with drippage by 10am and I still love the hell out of that system. I like watching it snow and rack up, but staying power later in the season is the least of my wants. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, nmyers1204 said: Or a happy ending You rang? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I still think we score at least one big one before its over. Would just align with enso. We will get one to work out. It might only stick around for a few days, But whatever. Hey--PD2 only lasted for what...4 days? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I think the writing is on the wall for this winter unfortunately. We got until the end of the month to score a climo snowfall then it's over. It’s too soon to write off winter. We know we can score in Feb and March. That said, we’re losing ground quickly on the ability to retain said snow for a significant period of time. Id much rather have cold w a few inches on the ground for a few weeks than I would 6-8” that melts in 2 days. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Or a happy ending Paging @ravensrule Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I continue to love this setup https://ibb.co/YLmngK1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 a parade of stj waves stuck under a block. 12 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I continue to love this setup https://ibb.co/YLmngK1 With Chuck on our side, who can stand against us? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, nmyers1204 said: Or a happy ending Aren’t all endings happy?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Maybe getting out of jv mode,?https://www.icon-model.org/Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: a parade of stj waves stuck under a block. Mid Atlantic will be totally obliterated. Bank on it. You will all be digging deep snow for days and days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Jim Cantore not impressed at all with any staying power of mid February flip back to winter in the East. If at all. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Digital blue at WB Day 15 is back on 6Z GFS....let the games begin! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Digital blue at WB Day 15 is back on 6Z GFS....let the games begin! As has been the case most of the winter, the airmass is crap. Verbatim, that would be a rate/time of day dependent wet pasting for the N/W areas. That said, it’s a positive to see both this system and the one that precedes it a few days showing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Fire up the grills and open the pools for Super Bowl Sunday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 ^I think there’s no reasonable doubt that this longwave pattern is coming. Question now becomes tracking individual shortwaves. Period around the 12th still looks too warm to me. EPS is very northern stream dominated for that period. GEFS has a southern low pass more or less over us on the means, but airmass is pretty bad leading in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 According to Phil.....no snow. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ^I think there’s no reasonable doubt that this longwave pattern is coming. Question now becomes tracking individual shortwaves. Period around the 12th still looks too warm to me. EPS is very northern stream dominated for that period. GEFS has a southern low pass more or less over us on the means, but airmass is pretty bad leading in. At this point temps are conceivably cold enough to snow, but most of the energy is from the NS. That is a function of the coupled PNA/EPO in conjunction with the developing -NAO, and the stretched TPV in between. STJ looks poised to eject some waves eastward beyond this period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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