GramaxRefugee Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Y'all don't think that...it may have been the volcano? I mean I know some kinda laughed that off, but now I'm starting to wonder. I mean we'd never had that much water vapor, right? So we didn't know the effects...but because it looks so weird, now I'm wondering! Largest ever recorded by modern scientific instruments. Largest of satellite era. 1000 times the Hiroshima bomb. You are on to something young man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Before I went on my rant in early Feb then subsequently took some time away, I noted in the Philly forum to tread lightly with the weeklies and the epic looks. Of course I got booed off the forum even suggesting that. But in all seriousness I will reiterate what I did at that time. Many of these extended products are heavily weighted on past analogs when there are rolled out. So if a group of indices like the QBO, PDO, enso etc match a particular year (let's use 2010 as an example because this year had many similar key features), then the weeklies would tend to spit out something similar that transpired during those analog years. Not saying this is sole reason we got the head fake, but partly is due to this, of that I have no doubt. Many of us actually discussed this in the past and there is truth to the algorithms involved in creating an extended product. Now could I tell you which specific products use more of the analog data? No, I dont have that I fo, but maybe a red tagger would? I look at this differently welcome to the new normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Largest ever recorded by modern scientific instruments. Largest of satellite era. 1000 times the Hiroshima bomb. You are on to something young man. It's yet another variable into our "unknown". I am sure (the main term here that you used water vapor) being launched high up into the atmosphere MUST have an effect on our climate for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Crazy BAMWx must be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, frd said: Crazy BAMWx must be happy. I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. do you think yesterdays storm that went south instead of cutting to lakes disrupted the entire global pattern lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Would this be the first strong Niño that wasn't a complete ratter but wasn't great either? All the ones the last 44 years or so have been either one or the other...except for 1992 I believe...and while that was a moderate, of course that was after Pinatubo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 36 minutes ago, Ji said: do you think yesterdays storm that went south instead of cutting to lakes disrupted the entire global pattern lol? I'd phrase this question differently. If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I'd phrase this question differently. If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know eps still likes last next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 42 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I'd phrase this question differently. If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know Or it could have been even worse. I might be wrong, but I don't think the failure of that wave to be a cutter is what went wrong. First of all, there were runs back like a week ago on guidance before that wave became a cutter the first time before it trended south then north then south again lol, where it still initiated a block. And that wave did bomb out and become a monster 50/50 and does wave break a ridge into the NAO domain, but then it phases with the TPV and lifts up into the NAO space itself and cuts off what was going to be the developing block. I think those smaller scale wave features are more an effect not a cause. For months guidance got to the block through slightly different means, different wave breaks, then suddenly it went poof. I dont think one wave break is what went wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug First week of March 7 days ago and now 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug First week of March 7 days ago and now does it go back to a good look at all for March or are we done? and how do we know this is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Ji said: does it go back to a good look at all for March or are we done? and how do we know this is right? it looks like garbage through about March 20th, then shifts the trough east in time for us to get cold rain in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it looks like garbage through about March 20th, then shifts the trough east in time for us to get cold rain in April. geez...we were going to have so much fun from Feb 11 to March 20th. At least we didnt get an epic pattern and have nothing to show for it like all those control runs you were worried about that were not showing snow. And between you and me....those h5 mint maps looked awesome but 2m anomaly maps even during the best mint...looked like average crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug First week of March 7 days ago and now Hard to have confidence in any long term model right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Ji said: geez...we were going to have so much fun from Feb 11 to March 20th. At least we didnt get an epic pattern and have nothing to show for it like all those control runs you were worried about that were not showing snow. And between you and me....those h5 mint maps looked awesome but 2m anomaly maps even during the best mint...looked like average crap. but the 2m maps didnt bother me cause i didnt care about arctic air....i figured anything that tracked south of us would be snow even if the days in between were 46 degrees' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug First week of March 7 days ago and now For the 6 th year in a row the weeklies sucked. LR Models can not predict HL events, nor the NAM stae, modeling can not predict the AO or the NAO far in advance. Modeling may be able to handle the warm seasons, but when cold is forecasted best to not believe it. This winter was the final straw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year? This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season. Time to book a March trip to Whistler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its warm Winter forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season. There is a +correlation between the central-subsurface ENSO region and PNA at 0time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its Winter forecast. To be fair a warm season doesn’t preclude a big snow storm. 2015-2016 is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Time to book a March trip to Whistler? Conditions there will be even better next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. I’ve seen ssw hurt us more than help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. I heard from another poster (maybe bluewave or someone else?) that a SSW is only good if we already have blocking in place. Didn't turn out to be the case this time, and in 2019. It only seemed to disrupt the blocking we already had. So it's probably better to have that disrupting mechanism when we have a polar domain we don't like, i.e. +AO. Next time I'd rather get a SSW when we have a +AO so we can break it, instead of a SSW potentially ruining a block that was already in place. (Ji said what I just said in 8 words) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Ji said: I’ve seen ssw hurt us more than help There does seem to be a general -NAO/bad Pacific correlation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. I want full access! I want them rendered in both Word and in PDF. That is just the kind of stuff I live to read and soak in for millennia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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