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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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44 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming.


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This you?

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21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years.

legitimately debatable, by the JFM trimonthly it was enso neutral.  2017 actually was even more a case for neutral as the DJF was neutral the nina that year died in the fall.  So maybe I will give you 2023 but then I take 2017 as neutral.  Either way my point is we were not in a nina the whole last 8 years, yet it hasn't mattered much wrt the pattern.  Chuck is correct that the PDO is really the underlying cyclical driver here, but that alone also is not an explanation for the record low snowfall and warm temps as we've had -PDO cycles before that were not this warm and snowless.  Actually none were this warm and snowless!  

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43 minutes ago, stormy said:

Psu, you are a smart man. Regarding, "what is happening recently".  Tell me, what is your solution to "what is happening"........................ What should we do?????   I am very serious...........

About us getting less snow?  Other than adjust expectations or moving north, nothing.  I mean in the grand scheme of things this isn't that important.  But wanting to understand the why and how of it doesn't mean we can necessarily do anything.  Sometimes knowledge is just for knowledge sake.  

Now....if you are talking about....NOPE not taking that bait.  

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12 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Me either...I don't speak Shroomchaser-ese!

One thing I learned this winter is ussually Chuck knows what he's talking about. His long range prophecies ussually cone true.

The problem is I don't speak chuck. I need an interpreter or something 

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just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

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23 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Serious question for you, or for anyone else who has been more following the longer range outlooks (extended ensembles, weeklies, that sort if thing).  Obviously those longer range 500 mb plots are smoothed, etc., and are intended to give you an overall view of the flow and pattern.  That said, they consistently ALL showed a far different view of how the last half of February into the first half of March than what we now see on both ops and ensembles.  Like day after day after day.  And it's not like previous years where it got kicked later and later...the "epic" pattern actually moved up in time.  And then...WTF just happened in the last week or so?  I'm not trying to be flippant in any regard.  I'm just curious why those apparently were so far off.  I know we see more "detail" as the time range shortens, but the blocking, cold air source, etc., seems to have all but gone poof.  Also, while I of course believe in "the elephant in the room" (can't say CC...oops, I just did!), it's not like those longer range ensembles wouldn't be influenced by that or "see" it, so to speak.  So the fact that they seem to have flipped cannot really be attributed to that factor.  It would be one thing if for a week or so the longer range ensembles looked great and then looked like shit the blinds, but that's not what happened.

Anyhow, just wondering...

We are fighting a really strong multi-year base state.  From 2018-2023, the average 500mb anomaly of the PNA region in the N. Pacific Ocean in February is >+150dm average. Since 1948, the only other 500mb anomaly for a consecutive month over a 6-year period is a -NAO signal at +105-120dm back from '64-69 (80% of that recent anomaly). Even March has started to trend toward this strong -PNA in recent years.  So when the weeklies, etc, all were showing a cold +PNA pattern, it was suspect because the global trend was much different. They were showing Nino-climo, and you heard it all Winter by everyone "El Nino's are better after Jan 15th", "Most snow in 2nd half of Winter in Nino's", etc. There just really isn't enough data, and unscientific basis for why December should be a warm month and February so cold. No one makes the meteorological connection.. so we broke that ENSO-anomaly this Winter. That's all. 

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

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I think the question to "why" is legitimate though.  

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

Wow.. even the PNA/EPO region in the Pacific is close to opposite. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the question to "why" is legitimate though.  

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy. i'm sure there were some other reasons, but the deamplification of today's storm was the main player

we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy

we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

That is a tenuous way to get a legit block. Transient -NAO, sure. Guidance did indicate a retrograding Scandi ridge for a time, which is a path to a legit, sustained NA block. Clearly that idea was wrong though.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

is there a way to move my last reply to Scarlet over to the new thread? 

PSU...somehow, I managed to see your reply just in time and I much appreciate it, thank you!  What you said makes sense and I agree.  I tried to "react" to that with a "like" but I guess it got moved so my reaction failed, LOL!!  Anyhow, not sure what thread some of these posts ended up in.  @WxUSAF, my apologies if I got too much into some off-topic elements, requiring some of those to be moved.

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34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

One thing I learned this winter is ussually Chuck knows what he's talking about. His long range prophecies ussually cone true.

The problem is I don't speak chuck. I need an interpreter or something 

Just ask me to clarify if you have a question. I like to keep everything along the lines of scientific reasoning, so it's an unbiased input that people should be able to understand (because it's mutually external lol). They can also just simply say I agree, or disagree.  You should be able to see the scientific point, and know if you are progressing toward an answer. Feel free if you ever need clarity. I learn by writing things out, also. 

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2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just ask me to clarify if you have a question. I like to keep everything along the lines of scientific reasoning, so it's an unbiased input that people should be able to understand (because it's mutually external lol). They can also just simply say I agree, or disagree. You should be able to see the scientific point, and know if you are progressing toward an answer. 

so fluffy clouds... JK man you have been on point, if you can get past the shroom inspired moments 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy. i'm sure there were some other reasons, but the deamplification of today's storm was the main player

we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

Weeklies ended up being wrong even with it’s consistency up until now…

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3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times. 

I'm pulling for mid 90s next January. At least. 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

get_attachment_url.webp.35a432f8acae54112b1934a5e1664fdb.webpeps_z500a_namer_27.webp.a598c084b49a57d6aa1f497e10fd7faa.webp

I think you mean the “long range modeled HECS pattern”. That’s the thing with long range. I don’t care if it is an ensemble or that the ensembles agree, there’s little skill in weather modeling at long range. I know some will claim otherwise but a broken clock is right twice a day. You get out past day 10 and you’re on thin ice.

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This is an amazing base state that we are coming out of. Since satellite record in 1948 there is no other 2-month composite for a 6-year period that has an anomaly this strong. #2 is over the NAO region in the '60s and has only 75% the strength of this N. Pacific High pressure anomaly. 

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LR models are showing it again, despite this being a Strong El Nino year. 

https://ibb.co/5187RC7

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19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think you mean the “long range modeled HECS pattern”. That’s the thing with long range. I don’t care if it is an ensemble or that the ensembles agree, there’s little skill in weather modeling at long range. I know some will claim otherwise but a broken clock is right twice a day. You get out past day 10 and you’re on thin ice.

To be fair I don’t think the solid mets were excited because of the models. They were excited because the top analogs to our current enso are some of our snowiest winters ever!  The fact the models supported that was just an ancillary piece. 

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9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is an amazing base state that we are coming out of. Since satellite record in 1948 there is no other 2-month composite for a 6-year period that has an anomaly this strong. #2 is over the NAO region in the '60s and has only 75% the strength of this N. Pacific High pressure anomaly. 

c.png.2a520b0a61405e4bca0784c63460ff6f.png

LR models are showing it again, despite this being a Strong El Nino year. 

https://ibb.co/5187RC7

So if a strong Nino can’t countermand the pac base state what can?  

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