Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy. i'm sure there were some other reasons, but the deamplification of today's storm was the main player

we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

Weeklies ended up being wrong even with it’s consistency up until now…

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times. 

I'm pulling for mid 90s next January. At least. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

I think you mean the “long range modeled HECS pattern”. That’s the thing with long range. I don’t care if it is an ensemble or that the ensembles agree, there’s little skill in weather modeling at long range. I know some will claim otherwise but a broken clock is right twice a day. You get out past day 10 and you’re on thin ice.

[WinterWxLuvr]

And what looks meh right now might turn out that way. It works both ways.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is an amazing base state that we are coming out of. Since satellite record in 1948 there is no other 2-month composite for a 6-year period that has an anomaly this strong. #2 is over the NAO region in the '60s and has only 75% the strength of this N. Pacific High pressure anomaly. 

LR models are showing it again, despite this being a Strong El Nino year. 

https://ibb.co/5187RC7

[jayyy]

so fluffy clouds... JK man you have been on point, if you can get past the shroom inspired moments 

And switching to non avatar snow depth maps from 1985

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think you mean the “long range modeled HECS pattern”. That’s the thing with long range. I don’t care if it is an ensemble or that the ensembles agree, there’s little skill in weather modeling at long range. I know some will claim otherwise but a broken clock is right twice a day. You get out past day 10 and you’re on thin ice.

To be fair I don’t think the solid mets were excited because of the models. They were excited because the top analogs to our current enso are some of our snowiest winters ever!  The fact the models supported that was just an ancillary piece. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is an amazing base state that we are coming out of. Since satellite record in 1948 there is no other 2-month composite for a 6-year period that has an anomaly this strong. #2 is over the NAO region in the '60s and has only 75% the strength of this N. Pacific High pressure anomaly. 

LR models are showing it again, despite this being a Strong El Nino year. 

https://ibb.co/5187RC7

So if a strong Nino can’t countermand the pac base state what can?  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So if a strong Nino can’t countermand the pac base state what can?  

Let's just say models going into a Stronger La Nina next year is interesting lol 

Natural Gas vs Oil/Gasoline is at an all time low. 

[EHoffman]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So if a strong Nino can’t countermand the pac base state what can?  

 

[snowfan]

@ers-wxman1your call on this winter back in….i wanna say December…..was pretty damn good so far. You got shit for it at the time, but nice job. I reserve the right to change my praise if we finish strong

[stormtracker]

GFS has a lot going on with the H5 look around 141 hours and after

[MD Snow]

Weird times. Last week was the best pattern in the last ten years on our doorstep. 3 discreet threats. Today, 19-20 and 23-25. Then the pattern got canceled. But there’s still a pretty decent chance some in the forum will end up going 3/3 with accumulating snow with all three threats. You’d think this board would be hopping with the potential. However, it’s about as as dead as it gets with most looking to the spring.


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[MD Snow]

GFS has a lot going on with the H5 look around 141 hours and after

Cmc also.


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[Bob Chill]

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves.  That is entirely possible.  I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I knew what I was doing!  But I don't know.  I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all.  

I don't think it's a fluke honestly. I think ninos can do this randomly in any year just as a Nina can behave very strangely some times too. If it was just our region having big issues this year I would think differently. This winter has not wanted to set up for snowfall in the east half of the country nearly start to finish. That's out of synch to me. It started weird too. The ski resorts in SW CO had an awful start to this year. I mean terrible.... in a Nino? That's quite rare (ive never seen it) but it's not temps there. The early season pattern was way out of synch for them too. 

I don't have a reasons thought through. Just observations. It's been an off Nino everywhere except for a mild winter. That's normal. 

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, MD Snow said:

Weird times. Last week was the best pattern in the last ten years on our doorstep. 3 discreet threats. Today, 19-20 and 23-25. Then the pattern got canceled. But there’s still a pretty decent chance some in the forum will end up going 3/3 with accumulating snow with all three threats. You’d think this board would be hopping with the potential. However, it’s about as as dead as it gets with most looking to the spring.


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We've learned our lesson. The new base state, Hadley influence and MJO implications of the Hadley influence is what has taught us to sharply temper our expectations. I no longer believe in snow shellackings for the DMV. Those days are permanently over. I do not believe that will ever happen again in our lifetimes, I turn my affections to places like Mammoth Lakes, Palisades Tahoe and Alta, Utah. Those places DO get truly life threatening amounts of snows and also can get blasted by hurricane force gusts! The Hadley, the new fiery base state, and MJO have absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on all of the incredible snows the mighty Sierra will get, especially when atmospheric rivers come to call. Those places average at least 400 inches a season, often much much more. The East Coast is DONE with big snows, except places like Maine and the NEK Regions. They can still get shellacked by snow. Washington should crave for 2-6 inches and start referring to those amounts as HECS, even low-end BECS. This is our new normal.

I still pull for the Mid Atlantic to get snow but today I am far more realistic. We won't get comma heads. We wont get shellacked. That's for places like Boston. We will get our 2-4 inch, maybe 6 inch amounts in the cities and DDweather, PSU and other places up in north central MD will see 8-16 inch amounts, because they have latitude, elevation and better luck than do places like Cleveland Park in NW DC. People like DD and PSU have a decent probability of getting shellacked with say 18 inches than the metroplexes ever will in 100-200 years given the new base state. Unless the AMOC stops. Then it's a whole new ballgame. Places like Allegheny Front will always get upslope snows. They are a special case even with the new base state.

[snowmagnet]

38 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We've learned our lesson. The new base state, Hadley influence and MJO implications of the Hadley influence is what has taught us to sharply temper our expectations. I no longer believe in snow shellackings for the DMV. Those days are permanently over. I do not believe that will ever happen again in our lifetimes, I turn my affections to places like Mammoth Lakes, Palisades Tahoe and Alta, Utah. Those places DO get truly life threatening amounts of snows and also can get blasted by hurricane force gusts! The Hadley, the new fiery base state, and MJO have absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on all of the incredible snows the mighty Sierra will get, especially when atmospheric rivers come to call. Those places average at least 400 inches a season, often much much more. The East Coast is DONE with big snows, except places like Maine and the NEK Regions. They can still get shellacked by snow. Washington should crave for 2-6 inches and start referring to those amounts as HECS, even low-end BECS. This is our new normal.

I still pull for the Mid Atlantic to get snow but today I am far more realistic. We won't get comma heads. We wont get shellacked. That's for places like Boston. We will get our 2-4 inch, maybe 6 inch amounts in the cities and DDweather, PSU and other places up in north central MD will see 8-16 inch amounts, because they have latitude, elevation and better luck than do places like Cleveland Park in NW DC. People like DD and PSU have a decent probability of getting shellacked with say 18 inches than the metroplexes ever will in 100-200 years given the new base state. Unless the AMOC stops. Then it's a whole new ballgame. Places like Allegheny Front will always get upslope snows. They are a special case even with the new base state.

OMG we lost Jebman!  You have been our forever optimist! 
 

I will continue to believe in shellacking for the MidAtlantic. If not this year, but one year we will get lucky. If not, I’ll retire in 5 years and move to PA. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The latest GFS is not a shit the blinds run by any means

[WxUSAF]

Thread on how we lost the -NAO signal. 

 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The latest GFS is not a shit the blinds run by any means

Seems like the Op looks improved after the Esembles long range looks went to meh lol.

Go fiquire 

[Heisy]

Think there’s any chance SSW gives us some hope for Smarch?


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[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Think there’s any chance SSW gives us some hope for Smarch?


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We’ve had 1 minor and (potentially) 2 major SSWs and they’ve all been weird with bottom-up and top-down connections. I said before this winter that I think people will write papers about this winter and I’m fully confident of that now.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The latest GFS is not a shit the blinds run by any means

I’m getting weary. 

[Ji]

Think there’s any chance SSW gives us some hope for Smarch?


.

How do latest weeklies look for March ?

[blizzardmeiser]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

How do latest weeklies look for March ?

March will be a daffodil destroyer and crocus crusher.   

[IronTy]

51 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

March will be a daffodil destroyer and crocus crusher.   

You have any of those left!?   The SEVERE Sistine Chapel pattern killed off all my bulbs, nothing left to sprout at this point.  

[paulythegun]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

How do latest weeklies look for March ?

The last week of March looks rockin'!

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

The last week of March looks rockin'!

 

Looks familiar. Where have I seen this before?

[blizzardmeiser]

37 minutes ago, IronTy said:

You have any of those left!?   The SEVERE Sistine Chapel pattern killed off all my bulbs, nothing left to sprout at this point.  

The Sistine Chapel was clearly a game changer 

[blizzardmeiser]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks familiar. Where have I seen this before?

This time it counts.